Way back when I was a trainee Economist writing forecasts of the Australian Economy, we sold spreadsheets (and later custom software) to forecast the money market in a number of ways.
Our accuracy rate was 60-66% versus our closest competitors (including BIS Schrapnel) of 45-50%. We sold it to banks, insurance companies, and financial services companies for $25,000 AUD in 1988 (plus consulting). You needed $10Million AUD in the market for the edge we provided to break even.
1) Nobody knows anything.
2) Analysis paralysis is more dangerous to your wealth than making offers.
On 9/8/01 8:18:00 AM, Anonymous wrote:
>A word of caution
>though, the financial
>institutions spend a fortune
>trying to predict the market
>and even they frequently get
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