Is Australia facing an economic downturn/recession?

[josko]

The only thing I hope you are right about Aaron are points 7, 8 and 10.

With the previous points coming true, though...that will surely see those points fulfilled.

Bluescope are closing two manufaturing factories due to a billion dollar net LOSS and there go a thousand jobs.

Export sales delivered a $487 million earnings loss in the year to June, BlueScope reported.

Paul Howes: "We are going to see huge amount of jobs go. This is one of the worst periods Australian manufacturing has gone through since the Great Depression."

Trade Minister Craig Emerson said yesterday the Government was responding to the manufacturing crisis by trying to reduce production costs and red tape

Howes also wants The Australian Governemnt to request that China float their currency. LOL You think? Sure, they'll listen?

http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/manuf...-mass-job-losses/story-e6frea6u-1226119216452

Won't be long before CBA and other banks follow Westpac in laying off staff.

Germany:

Europe's biggest economy and the world's fourth largest barely grew at all between April and June - managing expansion of just 0.1 per cent in its worst performance for more than two years.

Regards JO

 

[Dawn]

Hi Stefan,

Could you please post a long term chart showing Gold V ASX

 

[Aaron Sice]

That would be tops!

Anything about the relaxation of FIRBs in your predictions?

FIRB will open up many doors for investors - especially here in WA.

although i seriously doubt it will have an effect on the market as a whole - maybe a little in some areas close to unis, rossmoyne catchment etc...but that's about it.

 

[Aaron Sice]

Bluescope are closing two manufaturing factories due to a billion dollar net LOSS and there go a thousand jobs.

another smack in the face for the eastern states.

imagine the feeling those champagne socialists must have now....

 

[StefanA]

And Australia's high interest rates wouldn't have anything to do with a higher AUD, nor strangling steel exports....just ask Glenn Stevens. So put them up again Glenn. No harm done.

 

[StefanA]

RBA wary of 'extreme' swings

2:00PM Scott Murdoch THE RBA warned today the current bout of financial market volatility has become "extreme" and could determine the outlook for rates.


"As you know since then market volatility has become more extreme.
"An important issue ahead of us will be to assess what impact this is likely to have on global and domestic economic activity.
"As yet there is little information on which to base such judgements."


hahahaha Glenn.
Glad you finally think what the markets said you'd have to, before you did.

 

[TomW]

And Australia's high interest rates wouldn't have anything to do with a higher AUD, nor strangling steel exports....just ask Glenn Stevens. So put them up again Glenn. No harm done.

The RBA's made it pretty clear that they are quite happy for the property market and the manafacturing/retail sector to be slowly strangled in order to make room for the mining sector.

 

[sid]

The only thing I hope you are right about Aaron are points 7, 8 and 10.

why would you want to get rid of the carbon tax, business are already starting to change their behaviour, the sooner its done the better after all it IS inevitable we waste far too much, time to be a little smarter about how we live

 

[Aaron Sice]

why would you want to get rid of the carbon tax, business are already starting to change their behaviour, the sooner its done the better after all it IS inevitable we waste far too much, time to be a little smarter about how we live

businesses were changing their footprint habits long before a tax was derived to disincentivise the devise.

 

[Player]

Will a slow down in China put a lid on mining for a while and drive us further into deflation?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/michael-pettis-long-term-outlook-for.html

Two decades hence, perhaps it is time to have the recession we need to have to clear the air a little.

 

[StefanA]

Will a slow down in China put a lid on mining for a while and drive us further into deflation?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/michael-pettis-long-term-outlook-for.html

Two decades hence, perhaps it is time to have the recession we need to have to clear the air a little.

I think Pettis calls it right, and should I be alarmed the RBA, Treasury, the Labor govt, and most Australian media, don't see it this way?

 

[Player]

I think Pettis calls it right, and should I be alarmed the RBA, Treasury, the Labor govt, and most Australian media, don't see it this way?

If folks are somewhat hedged and prepared for opportunity, perhaps instead of alarm, this should be viewed with gratitutde. I am sitting a little on the fence at present however well poised for any pullbacks. Being a little contarian in these times isn't such a bad idea.

The (mainstream) datasphere often misleads the masses (and themselves), and can be viewed as the pied piper.........sometimes doing those left behind a favour

 

[StefanA]

........sometimes doing those left behind a favour

Yes, well I suppose there's something to be said for being more philosophical about information asymmetry; and just getting on with the celebrations.

 

[Aaron Sice]

If folks are somewhat hedged and prepared for opportunity, perhaps instead of alarm, this should be viewed with gratitutde. I am sitting a little on the fence at present however well poised for any pullbacks. Being a little contarian in these times isn't such a bad idea.

The (mainstream) datasphere often misleads the masses (and themselves), and can be viewed as the pied piper.........sometimes doing those left behind a favour

someone help me follow the money.

there's a sink hole in a few places around the world - the US being one of them - but something doesn't add up.

 

[Player]

Fudged numbers

I don't think it will ever add up anymore.......not to a whole number or zero sum game.........who would we believe anyway?


Debasement of currencies and continuing printing of fiat dollars means that unless there is a full-on Armageddon and return to some type of gold standard, one needs to only consider what suits one's risk appetitie, knowledge base and future reward expectations. I also believe that now is not the time to be over-leveraged.

Whilst we cannot be as nimble with property as we can with shares/stocks, IMO the time for long positions in either asset class isn't right now. With property at least, unless it's a really super sweet cashflow yielding CIP with good tenant, I am sitting on the sidelines and watching and waiting.

The holes could get deeper Aaron, or have false bottoms right now. Whilst it's always darkest before the dawn, the same could be said for nightfall approaching mid-night. I'm just not sure that midnight has struck just yet.

I am reminded of a great phrase by someone you might know Aaron.

Short term pessimistic, long term optimistic.....Source (Blue Card)

 

[Sunfish]

Whilst we cannot be as nimble with property as we can with shares/stocks, IMO the time for long positions in either asset class isn't right now.

I'm doing far better now than during the GFC, partly because I sold up early and partly because gold has stood up well this time.

No way do I want to be long and strong so I have been writing conservative puts on some companies I would like to own. This way, if I'm exercised I have some stock at a good price which I will then write calls on. Still trialing it but it could be a nice little earner.

 

[Aaron Sice]

a very well reasoned debate

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWkDZGo2HLc

 

[buzzlightyear]

a very well reasoned debate

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWkDZGo2HLc

Thanks Aaron.

Some very interesting points, even if I admit that some of those are from Steve Keen.

 

[josko]

I'm doing far better now than during the GFC, partly because I sold up early and partly because gold has stood up well this time.

No way do I want to be long and strong so I have been writing conservative puts on some companies I would like to own. This way, if I'm exercised I have some stock at a good price which I will then write calls on. Still trialing it but it could be a nice little earner.

Good for you.

One thing is clear...these are VERY interesting times and like any time before this...there is money to be made...somewhere.

I'm just trying to find where.... (hope it's BHP tho)

Regards JO

 

[josko]

RBA wary of 'extreme' swings

2:00PM Scott Murdoch THE RBA warned today the current bout of financial market volatility has become "extreme" and could determine the outlook for rates.


"As you know since then market volatility has become more extreme.
"An important issue ahead of us will be to assess what impact this is likely to have on global and domestic economic activity.
"As yet there is little information on which to base such judgements."


hahahaha Glenn.
Glad you finally think what the markets said you'd have to, before you did.

I wonder if these two ever get together and actually talk about the economy?
Hmmmm- how about the information in the newspapers...seems the data your guys are collecting doesn't quite make it to your desk.

Regards JO


{edit: thread is getting too long, closing it. Feel free to start another one - Sim'}