Is Market Sentiment Changing
- Thread starter MTR
- Start date
South West - not sure where??? still in a world of pain from what I can see.
I happened to contact the agent who sold my two properties - land and house packages in Daleyup (Bunbury) 6 years ago for around $400K. Apparently these properties are now selling for $350K. He can not move them, how low can you go is not the market you want to be jumping into.
Mandurah is still price sensitive and properties are still not back to prices of 2007.
Spearwood has moved too fast like most areas where there is development potential and unless you purchased 2 years ago its pretty hard to get the numbers to stack up.
If you are buying to hold for long term (land bank) you will need deep pockets $650K will get you an R30/40.
not sure about buno. For dunsborough... the cheap stuff has been flying for a long time but there isn't much supply at the top. this one I understand had 3 cash offers all at asking and upwards...
http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-wa-dunsborough-115970471
there is isolated pain for certain product but also opportunity for others.
eagle bay is a no brainer at the moment. pick up a dev site now and hold that for 20 years and you will never look back
would south freo not be better? thought it was quite cheap there some time back, the h&l's
You mean the south beach development? I think a much higher entry point thats more North Coogee. Can't think of any other h&l around south freo.
Who said anything about buying ? I'm sitting on the sidelines watching prices go up
. How's Cairns going ? How much has palm cove gone up and what sort of returns can you get for a nice 2-3 BR unit a block back from the beach ?
Cliff
I think anything that has development potential will provide growth.
Have you looked at Hilton.... hot.. hot... hot.
Hi JenJen
Too board to lump everything in one box, there are markets within markets that are moving. I am playing in Perth and Melb and certain pockets are doing very well and continuing to rise. Yields, well that is dependent on what you are doing, as a developer there is potential to achieve high yields on completion. Buy and hold is probably a different story.
Looks like last weeks APM Clearance rate has been dropped to 74% from 79% as expected.
Their clearance rate this weekend is published as 74%, have to wait and see if that drops too.
Looking at the clearance rates they are stable-dropping. Which would suggest the market is easing.
Second that, will see the indicator clearance rates. Especially from now til November. Usually sales bit slow during winter, and get warmer up til November.
Hopefully we can see the steam from FHB, many parents try to help their children into the market (especially mid range market). Even I think threshold to 750k won't help much.
I really don't see how you can look at the APM graph and come up with that statement . If you wanted to say stable , I couldn't argue with that as the increase over the four week before this weekend was small but IT WAS INCREASING ......and then we have a 1 % drop for the last week . Hardly statistically significant .
So the clearance rates quoted for APM for the last five weeks are
http://apm.domain.com.au/Research/AuctionResults/
10th MAY - 68 %
17th MAY - 68 %
24th MAY - 71 %
31st MAY - 72 %
7th JUNE - 71 %
I'm not sure on the statistical significance of the changes . Upto this week , as I pointed out earlier in the thread they were increasing , but the reality is that this increase is probably not statistically significant , and indicated a difference in the sale less than a handful of houses
BUT
What it doesn't show is a decrease.
So your statement that
Looking at the clearance rates they are stable-dropping. Which would suggest the market is easing.
Is wrong .
Maybe you think I'm being pedantic , but people do read and take notice of these threads and not every one is going to check the figures behind statements like yours . When we quote significant / important date we have a duty of care to get things right .
Cliff
Very funny, you think people would make significant financial decisions based on a strangers opinion or mis-quoted "date" on a web-forum? PRICES ARE FALLING - no I really don't think anyone has gone off and sold up because I wrote that.
If you would like to talk about soft markets post-budget, Canberra is the place to focus your attention. I'm kicking myself that I didn't meet the market and sell-up a few months back when we tidied up the old shack between tenants.
Maybe you don't value your opinion , or that of others , but there are some people on this forum who value the information given on this web site .
I know I do . The general info and specific deals I've picked up though the gained from this web site over the last ten years have changes our lives significantly. You get out what you put in.
in this situation it mattered because he was misinterpreting reputable data . Given that someone came in and said " Second that " indicates that not everyone goes and checks the original source
I don't think most of the regulars on the forum would have a problem with what I said , and would probably appreciate that someone checked ??
BTW . If you don't value , listen to or believe what people are saying , What's the point of being here
:roll eyes: or are you just a troll in disguise ….Cliff
It comes down to how long of a data series you look at, and obviously how you interpret that data series. For reference I was referring to Sydney as that's the clearance rate you originally quoted plus the area I'm interested in.
In my opinion we went from a period of 80+% clearance rates, which dived on low volume during April due to all the public holidays. It's "my" view that the dip and rise should not be considered as a fall and now a rise, but largely eliminated. It's due to the impact of an external event.
What we can see by looking over the longer period is a transition from 80+% clearance rates to 70+% clearance rates. That's what I have defined as dropping clearance rates. They do seem to have stabilised somewhat now. It's only my feeling that, there is more of a falling bias than an increasing bias.
Interestingly the 79% clearance rate you originally quoted also seems to be slightly misleading as it's been revised down to 73% which was my other point. The headline rate always seems to fall by 4-6% once revised. If you take this into account when looking at the latest rate, you can attempt to project forward the final result.
In any event we are just putting forward different view points, which are individual opinion only, not an exact science. Always Caveat Emptor.
Still very good prices being achieved, albeit slightly more sporadic than previously. Also these are Sydney wide clearance rates we are talking about and so don't apply evenly all over Sydney. People should take other demand statistics into account also, not just rely on clearance rates, clearance rates are a pretty broad measure of what's going on.
Update: Forgot to mention, always good to use multiple sources to validate each other, e.g. RPData, etc.
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Hi bumpkins
Thanks for your considered reply . Certainly from that long run of > 80 clearances , rates dropped .
Will be interesting to see what happens from here on in .
In our area of interest , most properties have been selling and very little has come on the market in the last month , therefore low supply .
Cliff
Thanks for your considered reply
. Certainly from that long run of > 80 clearances , rates dropped . Will be interesting to see what happens from here on in .
In our area of interest , most properties have been selling and very little has come on the market in the last month , therefore low supply .
Cliff
