Is Melbourne cooling?

[yadreamin]

I think the Melbourne market will cool ....possibly considerably over the next 6-12months...if interest rates push up another 0.5%-75%.

I am sitting on my hands in the short term as I see more opportunities to get in somewhere in mid 2011 when people start panicking about IR at about 8-8.5% (7.3-7.5% if you get the 0.7% discount).

I fixed most of my rates till mmid 2011......I have a feeling that Sept. - Oct. 2011 will be a good time to re-fix for another cycle.

People this is nothing new.....happens every cycle....

That was a good call when you fixed your rates sash. well done you know your stuff.
let me think what are you on 5% or was it 5.5%

 

[sash]

Thanks Yadreamin...

I got my fixed rates spread across 3 banks ...mostly for 2-3 years at 5.24%. 5.59%, and 5.74%.

I also recently fixed my newer purchases (last 7-8 months) at 5.49% and 6.3% for one year.

I have two coming off a rate of 6.95% and 7.45% in the next two months. I will refix these at the going 1 year rate. I believe this is now in the high sixes.

I am one who thinks CF is very important.....CG is great but if oyu can't hold it or sell in bad times you have done your dough!

That was a good call when you fixed your rates sash. well done you know your stuff.
let me think what are you on 5% or was it 5.5%

 

[Aaron Sice]

i brought this up in my GFC post - i think it's in for a little reassessment.

20%+ jump in 12m will end in a reassessment. now whether that's a pause or a small correction (look out below! 40%!....joking) i have no way of calling.

is it a good thing? ABSOLUTELY. if you're buying or have just bought in Melb then in my opinion wouldn't be worried - look longer term - 5+ years.

reassessments and corrections are good things.

cautious bullish markets are healthy markets.

 

[MTR]

Think it will cool Biggles,

numbers at ofi's r way down, hopefully just flatten out for a while and that will reduce some pressure on rates as well.

we really have had 2007 and 09 as massive boom and first half of 2010 so it needs to slow down for a while.

cheers

bt

I think your right BT.

RE agent told me he has noticed a distinct drop in queries on properties, this is for Coburg area.

On the flip side am told Broady is still going strong with record prices achieved. I also received phoned call from RE agent asking me when my plans and permits would be ready as he has demand from overseas investors wanting these types of properties and he had no stock left, all sold.
Have to see how long this lasts.

MTR

 

[keneth]

oxford street newport. 1.3-1.5 million!

http://www.domain.com.au/Property/For-Sale/House/VIC/Newport/?adid=2008358215

 

[paul2299]

Seems to have been a large % of pass ins in the higher priced areas today, market is in decline I would say in that area.

 

[Lebowski]

I've notice just in the last week that a number of places have dropped in price range. Will have to wait a few more weeks to see the actual sale price, but for example:
House which was listed at 430 - 470 has now be reset to 410-450
Another one which was at 460-480 is now back to 420-460.

Perhaps a sign of things to come...

 

[Wibbly Pig]

The market definitely is starting to cool in Melbourne. In some areas it is downright cold! Marked change in sentiment past few weeks. Clearance rates dropping. Noticed REIV becoming more ambigous with numbers stating clearance rates of somewhere between mid and high 70s for this weekend.

 

[mattnz]

Go to realestate.com and search for land which isn't under contract in the outer West, Tarneit, Truganina, Point Cook etc.

Here's an example http://www.realestate.com.au/buy/pr...lse&source=refinements&misc=ex-under-contract

There are zero uncontracted blocks of land over 500 sqm in Tarniet available today!!

I wouldn't have thought it possible, but demand for land in new subdivisions has hugely outstripped the supply. I saw a post recently that the latest release in the area sold out in 3 hours.

This indicates to me that affordable areas in the outer West are about to go through a huge growth phase to start to catch up to the rest of Melbourne.

 

[Player]

What a difference a report by Henry, a miner's punishment tax, a budget, a collapsing Greece and an interest rate rise makes and, all in a matter of the last three weeks.

I smell a little fear in the air. It may just be a temporary sentiment glitch or the beginning of a more solemn time ahead.

Unless a very sudden share market correction occurs again, anything above the million mark should just simmer along for now. If people are serious buyers, they will buy. Lower clearance just indicates caution at auction, to avoid the frenzy conditions. Properties sell thereafter.

The lower end and anything up to median (circa 500 K) may be compromised as some mortgage stress has commenced and with some further rate rises, these may struggle, and supply may outweigh demand for a while. Some investors will be waiting in the wings, however not sure that all stock will be absorbed in those median and sub-median markets.

There is certainly no rush to buy at the frenetic pace that has consumed Melbourne over the past 9-12 months IMHO........just some normality returning. The market was anything but normal for much of the last year.

 

[MTR]

Could someone clarify as not in Melb, from my research it is the blue chip stuff that is slowing down, other areas still going strong.

Cheers, MTR

 

[EGB18CT]

I don't see Inner West cooling... Some ridiculous prices still being had at auctions around ascot vale, kensington, flemington.

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-flemington-106444721
Aparently agent said vendor was after $1mil for the lot, had an offer likely to accept on Monday for $1.25Mil.

Another in Ascot Vale off Van Ness Ave, auction was on sat, wanted $650-700, sold for $850 or $865 (can't exactly remember)

still very hot, demand is still high and supply is low.

 

[keneth]

if you can find a motivated buyer who likes what they see... any sale price is possible really.

the exchange of property comes down to a buyer willing to pay what the seller is asking, and the seller willing to sell for what the buyer is willing to offer.

simple as that!

 

[natedog]

Hi all,

3 bed plus study double storey house,immaculately kept went for 670k in Aspendale gardens last friday night at auction...50k over reserve.

Pick of the bunch for sale in the area....all it took was two buyers who really wanted it,

Cheers

 

[Casserole Dish]

Still not enough stock on offer for prices to cool. Given the banks being so tight at the moment I do wonder where ppl get their $ from sometimes.

Maybe blue chip has slowed, but all those sort of buyers are probably on holiday somewhere warm for a few months.

 

[Ausprop]

be careful not to get trapped tho. it is conceivable that the built up steam could blow off completely and retrace to where it started and then some. seems we are in a period of asset deflation, consumer inflation. people buying now at 80% LVR could easily find themselves at 100% LVR

 

[sash]

Yep.....it is usually the buyers buying in the last 3 mths who will have got themselves into trouble.

You are absolutely correct about the 80% LVR changing to a 100% LVR in the next few months. This usually happens with properties over $800k....you pay $1m for something today and in six months it might only be worth 800k!

be careful not to get trapped tho. it is conceivable that the built up steam could blow off completely and retrace to where it started and then some. seems we are in a period of asset deflation, consumer inflation. people buying now at 80% LVR could easily find themselves at 100% LVR

 

[andrew_de_a]

auction results in Camberwell, Glen Iris, Hawthorn, Hawthorn East etc were all very strong today

 

[keneth]

http://www.domain.com.au/Property/For-Sale/Apartment/VIC/Newport/?adid=2008387674

hows the agent's pricing going on here! 270k plus for a 2 bedroom unit....

 

[buzzlightyear]

Well I will find out if the Melbourne market is cooling in the next 30 days. I am selling one of my IP's after pondering over the possibility over the past few months.

The anticipated (fingers crossed) selling price makes for a very low yield based on current rentals and wanting to get our of flats/apartments continue to re-balance my portfolio to houses only, this is the right thing to do. I only purchased in Sep 2008 but have been a beneficiary of the recent surge in more affordable priced properties.

Speaking with the agent, they had indicated that the top end ($2m+) had slowed but the rest of the market was still pretty active. We are talking about eastern Melbourne suburbs (10-12kms from the CBD).