Is The Sydney Property Market Cooling Down? | Pete Wargent

[charlieandkath]

I agree!

Imo a recession is around the corner and boom will end 2018 and correction ahead.

Gear up tasty times ahead

Cheers Spades.

2018 is my long term view of Sydney doubling in prices from the 2003 boom. So far is circa 50% there in my opinion. Got the easy circa 50% to go now. Too early to pull out now in my opinion.

All my gen x friends that missed buying pre 2003 have now mostly bought as they don't want too chase the market up any further. I believe the speculators have not even arrived yet.

 

[ermat]

only 50% there

Like your confidence Charlie. We must be the only country on the planet currently half way through a doubling of house prices.

 

[hobo-jo]

I believe the speculators have not even arrived yet.

As at January 2014, investors accounted for a whopping 52.1% of total housing finance commitments (excluding refinancings) in New South Wales, which was an equal record high share (same as in the year to May 2004), and well above the experience of the other major capitals.

http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/03/sydney-property-investor-bubble-hits-record/

I suppose it's just the fundamental investors at these levels, given the favourable sub 4% yields

 

[joeExpat]

I believe the speculators have not even arrived yet.

I'll double that.
Anyone negatively geared is a speculator, they are now the dominant force in the market, this is an extreme danger signal. Risk too high for me so I sold out of Sydney.

 

[charlieandkath]

Like your confidence Charlie. We must be the only country on the planet currently half way through a doubling of house prices.

This is since 2003 - that is 11 years and I am predicting double by 2018. That is 15 years. I would say this is very conservative. Least I don't spruik the doubling every 7 years theory.

 

[perky29]

I have been reading / watching theories that we are 1 year into a 14 year upswing of an 18 year cycle.
Do a google on Phil Anderson and you will see his theories. 2025/2026 is meant to be around the time it will peak !

For those with some time on their hands ....

http://portphillippublishing.com.au/research/philanderson/philanderson-dandenning-talk.html#vid7

 

[ermat]

This guy is making it up as he goes along . Does not really have that much to say apart from his unexplained cycle theory.