It's a Great Time to Buy a New Home
- Thread starter keithj
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I've known that for a very long time, but sometimes it just takes an 'expert' to point it out 
Ditto!I've known that for a very long time, but sometimes it just takes an 'expert' to point it out
And a picture tells a thousand words. In the detail they mention Sydney as one of the biggest improvers which is great news for my strategy.
I read an article in the SMH this morning referring to this turnaround but, to be honest, I didn't link it or the referenced media release because I'm actually starting to get tired of trying to lead all the horses to water. In return for my efforts I more consistently receive ridicule at my obvious idiocy than an informed debate of the relative merits of the particular insight referenced.
Thanks Keith for linking it. Its an important element of the IP attractiveness argument that deserved to be covered here. Just glad someone else lead the way this time...
Cheers,
Michael
Michael,
Its only opinions on a forum mate, dont let it get to you.
My opinion is (like i need to point it out) it might be a great time to buy now, while interest artes are at circa 5% and unemployment is at its not too bad current rate. As we all know, these conditions wont be around for too much longer in the overall scheme of things.
Its only opinions on a forum mate, dont let it get to you.
My opinion is (like i need to point it out
) it might be a great time to buy now, while interest artes are at circa 5% and unemployment is at its not too bad current rate. As we all know, these conditions wont be around for too much longer in the overall scheme of things.I know, harden up... I'm normally pretty cool with it all but it is easier to just let others carry the baton every now and again.
And a good opinion it is too...My opinion is (like i need to point it out
Only thing I'd add is that if "affordability" is propped up by low interest rates and this is perceived as the "risk", then the environment that brings about higher interest rates is precisely what I'm wishing for as an investor. i.e. Affordability is good because growth prospects are weak. As the economy turns and gets a kick along prices will move with it and rates will rise thereby reducing affordability. Precisely why NOW is a good time to buy and lock in a value purchase before the economy turns and rates start to move. Conversely, if unemployment rises then rates drop further and affordability gets even better. Bit of a win/win whichever way you look at it. Provided you're not one of the 3.3% of the population that lose their job (8.5% - 5.2% I think)...
Just my 2c.
Cheers,
Michael
Michael,
Its only opinions on a forum mate, dont let it get to you.
My opinion is (like i need to point it out
Are you saying now is not a great time to buy because IR will not stay low for a long time?
If so, is ever a good time to buy?
I posted for information purposes only, I don't necessarily agree with it.
Sure it may be a great time to afford a house relative to the last 7 years. But a single indicator such as relative affordability is dwarfed by other obvious influences. Some of which are indicating that it may be an even better time when next quarters index is released.
I didn't link it or the referenced media release because I'm actually starting to get tired of trying to lead all the horses to water. In return for my efforts I more consistently receive ridicule at my obvious idiocy than an informed debate of the relative merits of the particular insight referenced.
...it is easier to just let others carry the baton every now and again.
Like me.
I don't actually mind the abuse from the gloomers. The more abuse the better - it just gives me more opportunity to point out where they are going wrong. If I can save just one gloomer then it's all worthwhile.
The positive signs are out there for those who look...
- Massive improvement in affordability
- House prices rising (as per Residex, APM and RPData)
- High auction clearance rates
- Westpac Melbourne Institute survey question 'is it a good time to buy a house' at highest reading for almost a decade
- AFG March 2009 home loan approval volumes (by number and value) were the highest on record
- Finance commitments rising strongly
- NON-FHB March commitments are up 22% from last September
- NON-FHB average mortgage sizes for March are the highest they have ever been
Are you saying now is not a great time to buy because IR will not stay low for a long time?
If so, is ever a good time to buy?
Not really, if interest rates are at 18% and coming down soon its because the economy is slowing down. Also bad time to buy a house because you may lose your job soon. Best time to buy is always before the last boom, even then I'm not so sure that it was a good time.
Therein lies the problem......
there's only a tiny fraction of the population looking.... and that's not enough to move prices in the short term.... maybe even the medium term ?Yup... can't argue with any of that stuff......
More things are looking better than last quarter..... but still not good enough for to me...
not a bear comment but just a couple of thought:
As none point it out on this thread the HIA-CBA is the Home industry association and CBA is the commonwealth bank, a bit like a car dealer telling you it is a great time to buy a new car and the financing office say that too!!!
By the way, is it a great news to have affordability at 7 year high when you have interest rates at 40 years low?
As none point it out on this thread the HIA-CBA is the Home industry association and CBA is the commonwealth bank, a bit like a car dealer telling you it is a great time to buy a new car and the financing office say that too!!!
By the way, is it a great news to have affordability at 7 year high when you have interest rates at 40 years low?
Meant to correct you on this earlier.
The improvement in market share of one of the nation's largest broker groups can be taken as support for the proposition that there has been an improvement in the market share of one of the nation's largest broker groups.
What that has to do with positive signs for housing is lost on me.
Still, this is what happens when you look really, really hard for reinforcement of your bias.
As a non-fhb, I think its a lousy time to build. Think of the queues!
And we'll be building soon enough anyway because building isn't outrageously expensive and the rent return on a new house is 10%. Just have to find the right builder to do the plan we want, sit back, and start waaaaaiting.
And we'll be building soon enough anyway because building isn't outrageously expensive and the rent return on a new house is 10%. Just have to find the right builder to do the plan we want, sit back, and start waaaaaiting.
The super changes are actually positive for property in the long term as long as they retain negative gearing. It means those on high incomes will invest more out of super, which will be away from shares and likely to be a greater propertion in direct property.
The new 25k limit on for those under 50 is pretty measly, which means those on a high income are going to have to find ways to invest out of super for the other 25k that they would have otherwise put in super.
It will take a a few years (?5-10) to work into the system and probably will add some steam to the next boom. In the meantime, the current downturn hasn't played itself out yet.
The new 25k limit on for those under 50 is pretty measly, which means those on a high income are going to have to find ways to invest out of super for the other 25k that they would have otherwise put in super.
It will take a a few years (?5-10) to work into the system and probably will add some steam to the next boom. In the meantime, the current downturn hasn't played itself out yet.
Evand. Congrats mate.. this takes your tally to over 94.65% negative posts out of your total posts and you win the "SS grump of the year" challenge
Really evand.. I am not here much but almost every post of yours I have read over the last few months is really negative.. bitter infact..
Wonder how you are like in real life
Really evand.. I am not here much but almost every post of yours I have read over the last few months is really negative.. bitter infact..
Wonder how you are like in real life
Michael,
Its only opinions on a forum mate, dont let it get to you.
My opinion is (like i need to point it out
Sour grapes? Did they steal some of your market share TF?
I hear some people are even known to frequent gloomer forums in order to reinforce their gloomer bias...
Evand. Congrats mate.. this takes your tally to over 94.65% negative posts out of your total posts and you win the "SS grump of the year" challenge
Really evand.. I am not here much but almost every post of yours I have read over the last few months is really negative.. bitter infact..
Wonder how you are like in real life
From reading Evand's posts I find him to be very intelligent and well informed. If I recall correctly Evand is financially independent and became so before the age of 40 through running his own business.
I think Evand has great life experience to share and if I am correct he invested through the last recession. I appreciate his posts and think they add balance to the forum.
None of us know with any certainty what will happen to the Australian economy as a result of the current Global Financial Crisis. I think a word of caution regarding borrowing large sums of money to invest into property is warrented.
I agree completely. As far as bear-ish viewpoints go, I think Evand and TF (and TC, if you consider yourself a bear?) are absolute gold for this forum. I love finding new ways of thinking and having my assumptions challenged, and these posters in particular are brilliant for that. I don't always agree, but I do always feel like I've learned something after reading what they have to say.
Keith,Therein lies the problem......
How do you reconcile that statement? Not being provocative, just asking. i.e. If the Westpac Melbourne Institute returns the highest reading in a decade for 'is it a good time to buy a house' then surely that suggests its more than a tiny fraction of the population who've latched on to the merit of property given its current dynamics?
The news on the street in my neighbourhood is also extremely positive. A year ago we had above average properties go to the market at $800K and languish for 12 months before selling for $700K. Today, we have below average properties listing at $700K and being snapped up before the first open! Its anecdotal only I know, but I truly sense that we're knee deep in the front end of a housing revival.
Cheers,
Michael
PS I agree with James that Evand, Token Funder, Thommo and others are an absolute asset to the forum. I'd hate to see any of these guys badgered out of contributing.
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