John Lindeman?s formula, what do you reckon?

Hi Willair

I am looking to buy a IP in Brisbane soon, would you pls shade some lights on which area to avoid, and which area to look for?

appreciate your advice.

I am currently looking at Wynnum, Arana Hills, Everton Hills, they are for different buyers. Arana Hills and Everton Hills are more or less for young professional families, Wynnum is a bit of mixed bag (million $ house with sub $400k)

What is their budget and what are they looking for in Wynnum? House or unit?
 
450k maybe Birkdale is a better option with that budget, Wakerley old part, manly west of Wynnum west will get you a better house probably in that order. At Wynnum that budget will only get you a West ave or a house in a pretty bad condition in an average part of Wynnum
 
thanks ricflair.

with Wynnum and Wynnum West, these 2 areas are well serviced by train stations and schools. Birkdale has some train service, while Wakerley does not have any train service.
 
Agreed but unlike Sydney people aren't obsessed with accessible by train, in fact people in BRISBANE consider the 30 mins on the train to the city or 40 from Birkdale to be excessive, the stations ip here have heaps of free parking at the station unlike Sydney so there is no need to live within 800m of a station.
Pluses and minuses of each
Wakerley-no station but can drive to manly station in 5-10mins. Manly station has express train to city, there are also buses services from Wakerley.easy drive to city with minimal traffic.
Wynnum- good access, 3 stations, living near Wynnum North station is the least desirable part, not many houses in your budget in good parts, maybe 81 southwick st will go for about 410k it is decent position but house is old and small 400-420 would be right on market value for this one. The other parts of Wynnum are busier roads like Wynnum road, west ave etc I wouldn't be keen unless the land or house was exceptionally good.
Wynnun west- better quality house worse quality neighbours, still no train there but has bus services and easy drive with minimal traffic to city.
Birkdale- better quality house good rental return with solid brick house in your budget, good private schools at ormiston and Wellington point, train access but 40-45 mins on train and traffic at Tilley road and old Cleveland quite busy at peak hour.
 
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thanks ricflair


that is very detailed analysis, great stuff.

noticed that you are from Sydney, how do you get such good knowledge of the areas? amazing

what is your view on Everton Hill and Arana Hill?
 
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thanks ricflair


that is very detailed analysis, great stuff.

noticed that you are from Sydney, how do you get such good knowledge of the areas? amazing

what is your view on Everton Hill and Arana Hill?

I moved from Sydney to Wynnum mid 2013, I looked at all bayside suburbs and thought rail and being near the water like Sydney was the key to capital growth, not exactly the case in Brisbane in saying that as population grows it may become more like sydney in that sense, I imagine it will take along time though. I briefly looked at those suburbs on the northside and at the time wasn't that impressed. In saying that though 15 months later I prefer what the north side has to offer in way of facilities.
That's not to say they are no good at the time my preference wAs south side due to working south side.
 
thanks ricflair


northside suburbs are more of developing suburbs, still affordable price, maybe better potential for CG.

southside suburbs are more of developed suburbs, have heard people said they do not like nothside as all.

being in Sydney, it hard to choose.
 
Hi Eric,

I was there at the seminar as well and found it to be informational if not particularly useful, besides from all the sales fluff. This was not the first time I have come across John's formula. It seems to be all over place at the moment; obviously a result of a concerted marketing efforts from his camp to get this out there and capitalize on the property investing high we're experiencing at the moment.

Personally I do find John's formula to be quite interesting. It might not be so useful just as a snapshot at a particular point in time, however, if you track this ratio over an extended period of time I think it will deliver more of a complete picture that can be used to assess the position of that particular area. I believe the power of this formula lies not in the formula itself but in the statistical data that John has collected over however many years across all suburbs across Australia. As a result, I inquired about this during one of the breaks and was informed that only John has access to this particular pool of data and noone else, not even the RESULTS team. Go figure, since his periodic best 30 reports are compiled using this data and he pumps them out for approximately $100 a pop several times a year. Why sell the cow when you can sell the milk? (I just made that up on the spot btw, the metaphor sounds apt for the instance lol)

Anyway I didn't end up purchasing anything but I was (and am) seriously considering their mentorship program which also includes John's formula and worksheets etc. It didn't make sense to pay $1k for the USB if I'm going to sign up for their mentorship program and get that included in the package anyway.

Bottom line is that I think there's some real merit in his method but only if you have managed to collect a large amount of data to analyze and monitor the trends. It must be noted, however, that I'm only a novice investor but I have been running my own business for a number of years now and have a serious knack for meaningful statistical relationships due to my background in accounting and finance so naturally I would be more inclined to look at anything statistically-related more favorably.

Regards,
Brandon
 
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