Just how bad will this all get ???

If your intention was to provide superior data to the Demographia survey supporting a different conclusion, we both know you failed.

TF and others, first I'll put in the disclaimer that I haven't looked at the data from Demographia or the others as the topic of who is most expensive doesn't really interest me. Having said that, if what people have said now (and in the past) about Demographia's surveys are correct - that the only survey markets within 5 countries - how could anyone possibly take this as relevant to the question posed of the most expensive markets in the world?

I'm not saying the other surveys are any better, but if Demographia use such a small sample of countries, then surely any results they conclude are pretty much totally irrelevant, even if you are interested in the question they purpose to answer. If the other surveys are along the same restricted parameters in one way or another, surely they should receive just as little regard.
 
Regarding household income that is actually what I was referring to. My income is in the top 10% of household incomes and even under Keith's scenario of upgrading over a lifetime I would still not be anywhere near the top 10% of realestate. Hence your second point - it requires old money.

It seems to me if you're focussing on "income" (individual or household) you're still in the "shallow end" of the property "pool". No dis-respect intended to anybody, but except for the very few "Eddies" out there you won't get to Toorak, if that's your goal. ( It's not mine.) ....but if you want to move to the diving-board end of the pool the game is "net worth". In the "high net worth" game, you can make income pretty well anything you want it to be.
LL
 
It seems to me if you're focussing on "income" (individual or household) you're still in the "shallow end" of the property "pool". No dis-respect intended to anybody, but except for the very few "Eddies" out there you won't get to Toorak, if that's your goal. ( It's not mine.) ....but if you want to move to the diving-board end of the pool the game is "net worth". In the "high net worth" game, you can make income pretty well anything you want it to be.
LL

"I must spread more kudos around before I give it to LL again". I was just about to make this point.

YM - I don't know the latest on what the top 10% is meant to earn - is it >$200k / year or so? The business owners I know with circa $20-$100m in net worth (built from zero - no "old money") would probably only be declaring that amount as personal income - everything else is paid for by their businesses - meals (meeting with clients), transport (to get to meetings with clients), boat (for meetings with clients), accomodation etc. etc. - you get the idea.

They all, without exception, make sure their personal income is kept way down because of the tax they would pay on it. Everything else is kept within the business, super fund, trust, overseas, whatever... this heavily skews the income figures - there are a lot of people out there earning a lot more than their personal taxable income shows!

Hence there are a lot of people for whom an average house in Toorak would not be much of an extravagance. And there don't need to be anyway - it's only the last buyer who sets the price. Not that many transactions in Toorak every year...
 
You criticised the Demographia research (rightly...if remarkably close to SQMs public comments)

Not sure what you're getting at there. I have been saying the same about the Demographia survey since early 2008 (on GPHC, but those posts were all deleted by the mods) and also on Somersoft since August 2008 - see post below.

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showpost.php?p=443237&postcount=17

and, clearly as a counter to their view, put up examples that were irrelevant, had poorer or missing methodologies, or both.

Ah, but they key point is that I put forward eight separate surveys, which I pointed out each covered different aspects of the affordability equation. I also mentioned that no survey was perfect, and that the following factors all need to be taken into consideration.

- Disposable income
- Employment rate
- General cost of living
- Interest rates
- Rental yield
- Tax incentives such as negative gearing and FHOG
- Land/Block size
- Dwelling size and quality
- Proximity to transport and infrastructure
- Currency exchange rates
- Economic and political stability

If your purpose was to highlight how much irrelevant information can be obtained but cutting and pasting but not reading, mission accomplished.;)

If your purpose was to fill up and derail the thread with irrelevant and pointless sneering, mission accomplished. ;)

If your intention was to provide superior data to the Demographia survey supporting a different conclusion, we both know you failed.

As mentioned, the combination of data from eight surveys that I presented, in addition to the Demographia survey, paints a more complete picture of the affordability equation, rather than looking at only one survey. However, if you prefer to look at one survey in isolation while disregarding all others that don't suit your agenda, then go for it!

Happy to contribute an anecdote as requested:

Your anecdote was irrelevant to the issue of affordability. I also note that you have not yet provided any alternative surveys. Pretty much what I expected from you. :D

Cheers,

Shadow.
 
Ah yes, I recognise this approach from my time on the other forum. Every six months the big crash gets postponed for another 6 months. It's always just around the corner, just out of reach, almost there... I can nearly touch it... damn, slipped away again. Oh well, just another 6 months, then property will definitely crash... this time... please? :D

I came across some PermaBear Wisdom which seemed pretty relevant.


PermaBear Wisdom

When an extreme event comes around like 2008, those who called it are elevated in stature. I think its appropriate they are elevated, but not too much. Many who called the crisis were incredibly vague prior to the problems (Shiller in his 2006 edition of Irrational Exuberance), and many enumerated tens of things that can wrong, and have always been saying so (eg, Noriel Roubini). Here is George Stigler describing the economist Leon Henderson circa 1942 in Memoirs of an Unregulated Economist):

Henderson had acquired a certain fame in Washington when he had been one of the few to predict the crash of 1937. An indulgent public had forgiven of forgotten his identical but mistaken predictions in previous years. I still label the repetition of a prediction until it comes to pass the 'Henderson method'.


Actually, a good doomsayer should predict a massive cataclysm is 'possible, if not probable'. In casual audiences this will work, because it is impossible to tie down, but it emphasizes the bad, so when that event happens, you simply say, 'exactly!'. A more quantitative audience will require actual numbers, so predict a cataclysm in 2-3 years, but here is the secret: always keep the improbable event forecast as being out 2-3 years. Most people who see you again, in a year or so, don't catch the inconsistency, because no one keeps archival real-time databases on prognosticators. As they say, forecast early and forecast often.
 
Can't speak for anyone else topcropper, but I presume you haven't lump me into that category.

You only have to look at this forum. The main aim on here of half the members is to stop work and never work again.
Cheers.


G'day Dazz.

I've definately not lumped you in there, and I'm definately not saying there is anything wrong with not wanting to work again, or to have enough wealth by 40 that you don't have to work. What's wrong with wanting more freedom and family time..?? Nothing. It's a good aim to have. I just think it was a bit unrealistic for so many people to have. The people who have achieved it, had very good timing and big kahuna's.

I suppose it's a bit like the share tips at the BBQ being an indicator of over priced shares, or the property indicator I like, the amount of building cranes on the Gold Coast. When so many people think that when you can simply borrow a heap of money and buy residential property and never have to work again at 40, then maybe it is a sign of a top.


I've been on this investing journey to provide me with the choice of working when I want. What I don't want to do is continue trading my daylight hours for a small lump of cash to further the business interests of my employer.

My number one desire is to have control back in my life. To work when I want. Work on what I want to work on. To determine my direction in life - not roll in on a Monday morning and be told that the direction has changed and I am now to be working on something completely different - or worse still, don't bother sitting down, you've just been run off.

You have already attained what I am working toward. Autonomy and control in your life. Farmers / trademen and small business owners have that autonomy and control. I understand it comes with serious risks and responsibilities. But it's better, IMO, than working for the man.

The thing about this forum topcropper, is that our chosen business, the business of owning property, is a largely "passive" one....as opposed to an active business like a farmer or a tradie.

Would you agree ??


I think your wrong about me having control of my life. I have periods where I can do what I want. But then other periods when I am a slave to the farm and the weather. Harvest and planting and spraying periods. I need to get bigger to get the freedom you talk about. I have some mates who are twice or three times bigger than me with a heap of workman with one terrific operations/machinery manager. These blokes are more in a managerial role and have enough trust in their men to be able to go and leave the farm when ever they want. I'm not big enough to do that, and I'm not sure if I have the desire or the balls to get that big.

Tradesmen are bossed around by their customers and suppliers. Small business owners are at the mercy of the customer.

Really, being a successfull wealthy retired investor/businessman is when you are truely free.

See ya's.
 
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Ah, but they key point is that I put forward eight separate surveys, which I pointed out each covered different aspects of the affordability equation. I also mentioned that no survey was perfect, and that the following factors all need to be taken into consideration.

- Disposable income
- Employment rate
- General cost of living
- Interest rates
- Rental yield
- Tax incentives such as negative gearing and FHOG
- Land/Block size
- Dwelling size and quality
- Proximity to transport and infrastructure
- Currency exchange rates
- Economic and political stability

There were 6 (two duplicates as you know). They were all poor - by your own criteria above - and simply weren't about home affordability, so why put them up?

Presumably because they made poorly researched claims that were the opposite of the poorly researched claims in the Demographia effort but supported your position

If your purpose was to fill up and derail the thread with irrelevant and pointless sneering, mission accomplished. ;)

Nope. Just to point out that "data" that supports ones proposition is deserving of the same sceptical analysis of the data that doesn't.

As mentioned, the combination of data from eight surveys that I presented, in addition to the Demographia survey, paints a more complete picture of the affordability equation, rather than looking at only one survey. However, if you prefer to look at one survey in isolation while disregarding all others that don't suit your agenda, then go for it!

Again, it's 6. It's not a more complete picture, it's just more irrelevant data. The articles citing buying habits of multi-millionaires or the price of a round of golf in Japan adds nothing.

I don't have an agenda. I've never rented in my life, own my PPOR, used to have IPs and shares, and actually have a vested interest in lots of people borrowing lots of money to buy lots of property that is steadily increasing in value.

I just don't let how I would like the world to be influence how I assess it to be.

Your anecdote was irrelevant to the issue of affordability. I also note that you have not yet provided any alternative surveys. Pretty much what I expected from you. :D

Wasn't claiming to be. Related to How Bad It Will This All Get and was simply pointing out that ANZ and others are voting with their LVRs.

I don't share your deep fascination with surveys.

The reason I don't sit currently sit in the "she'll be right/onward and upward" school of property prices because in my view they have moved away from the fundamentals as a result of an unsustainable dependence on increasing availability of credit.
 
There were 6 (two duplicates as you know). They were all poor - by your own criteria above - and simply weren't about home affordability, so why put them up?

There were 8 articles. Two of them overlapped others in some respects, but they did also add additional information that the others did not include. All the surveys did in some manner relate to the affordability equation, each touching on at least a couple of the factors that I listed below.

- Disposable income
- Employment rate
- General cost of living
- Interest rates
- Rental yield
- Tax incentives such as negative gearing and FHOG
- Land/Block size
- Dwelling size and quality
- Proximity to transport and infrastructure
- Currency exchange rates
- Economic and political stability

Of course, no survey is perfect, and no one survey can realistically consider all the factors, which is why it's a good idea to look at all the individual surveys for a more holistic view.

Presumably because they made poorly researched claims that were the opposite of the poorly researched claims in the Demographia effort but supported your position

I'm still waiting for your 'well researched' alternatives. Since you've provided nothing, these nine surveys are the best we've got. Do you have anything constructive to add? What would a 'good' survey look like to you? Do you know of any? Have you looked for alternative surveys? No...

On the other hand, after reading the Demographia survey last year, I spent some time researching and compiling a list of alternative surveys, all of which I have posted here for the benefit of others who may be interested. Better to consider nine individual viewpoints, rather than just the one that suits us best, right?

I don't share your deep fascination with surveys.

So? That's no reason to derail threads with sneering comments just because other people may be interested in housing affordability surveys and you are not. Judging by the kudos I have received for my posts in this thread (thanks guys) you are in the minority here TF. Most people here seem to appreciate the alternative surveys that I posted. Sorry. :D

Cheers,

Shadow.
 
There were 8 articles. Two of them overlapped others in some respects, but they did also add additional information that the others did not include. All the surveys did in some manner relate to the affordability equation, each touching on at least a couple of the factors that I listed below.

- Disposable income
- Employment rate
- General cost of living
- Interest rates
- Rental yield
- Tax incentives such as negative gearing and FHOG
- Land/Block size
- Dwelling size and quality
- Proximity to transport and infrastructure
- Currency exchange rates
- Economic and political stability

Of course, no survey is perfect, and no one survey can realistically consider all the factors, which is why it's a good idea to look at all the individual surveys for a more holistic view.



I'm still waiting for your 'well researched' alternatives. Since you've provided nothing, these nine surveys are the best we've got. Do you have anything constructive to add? What would a 'good' survey look like to you? Do you know of any? Have you looked for alternative surveys? No...

On the other hand, after reading the Demographia survey last year, I spent some time researching and compiling a list of alternative surveys, all of which I have posted here for the benefit of others who may be interested. Better to consider nine individual viewpoints, rather than just the one that suits us best, right?



So? That's no reason to derail threads with sneering comments just because other people may be interested in housing affordability surveys and you are not. Judging by the kudos I have received for my posts in this thread (thanks guys) you are in the minority here TF. Most people here seem to appreciate the alternative surveys that I posted. Sorry. :D

Cheers,

Shadow.

What is a Kudos?
 
looks like the UK may have a few issues to deal with ....

Seriously Alarmed
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
In the UK, sterling's slide has become disorderly, and the British government may be losing control. The pound is currently teetering on a two-decade support line; if it breaks that line, traders may send it crashing down towards dollar parity. The danger is obvious: the $4.4 trillion of foreign liabilities accumulated by UK banks are twice the size of the British economy. UK foreign reserves are virtually nothing at $60.6 billion. If the government is forced to nationalize RBS and Barclays with their vast exposure in dollars, euros, and yen, it risks being submerged. While sovereign states allow national debt to climb in a crisis or a war, it is irresponsible to take on foreign debts on such a scale with no reserves. This is the moment when the reckless debt experiment of economic and political leaders comes back to haunt. While Iceland resolved its problems by defaulting and refusing to honour the foreign debts of its banks, the UK cannot do that. Its debts are too big, and such action would set off a global panic, sending the world into deep depression. The reckless conduct the stock market, the fiscal incontinence of UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown and the lack of regulation with respect to the UK housing boom have combined to bring the country to the brink of disaster. Adopting the euro ten years ago would have made no difference; the bubble would have been just as bad, or worse, as Ireland and Spain can attest. The baby boomers have had their moment in power, writes Evans-Pritchard. The most spoilt generation in history has handled affairs with its characteristic hedonism. The results are coming in.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans-pritchard/blog/2009/01/20/seriously_alarmed
 
There were 8 articles. Two of them overlapped others in some respects

They didn't overlap. One was sourced from exclusively from aneki.com and one from Mercer.

I'm still waiting for your 'well researched' alternatives. Since you've provided nothing, these nine surveys are the best we've got. Do you have anything constructive to add? What would a 'good' survey look like to you? Do you know of any? Have you looked for alternative surveys? No...

On the other hand, after reading the Demographia survey last year, I spent some time researching and compiling a list of alternative surveys, all of which I have posted here for the benefit of others who may be interested. Better to consider nine individual viewpoints, rather than just the one that suits us best, right?

So you would contend that "alternative" views with equally poor or absent methodologies add to the debate? Nine poorly researched or unreferenced pieces of research are no improvement on 1 poorly researched or unreferenced piece of research.

Unless of course your just playing to the crowd.:confused:

I would have though that if you were genuinely interested in the research rather than simple link mining for anything that supports your position you might have come across, I don't know, these:

Ableson, P. & Chung, D. 2004, ‘Housing prices in Australia: 1970 to 2003’, Macquarie University Economics Research Papers, no. 9/2004, September.

Abelson P. and Chung, D. 2005, ‘The real story of housing prices in Australia from 1970 to 2003’, Australian Economic Review, vol. 38, no. 3, pp 265–81.

Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2007a, Housing Occupancy and Costs, Australia 2005-06, Summary of findings, cat. no. 4130.0.55.001, 31 October.

Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2007c, Media Fact Sheet. More than one in 25Australians need help with basic activities, 27 June.

Australian Government, 2008a, ‘Making housing affordable again’, http://www.facs.gov.au/internet/facsinternet.nsf/vIA/housing_affordable/$File/making_housing_affordable_again.pdf

Australian Government, 2008b, National Rental Affordability Scheme technical discussion paper, released May 2008.

Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, 2003, AHURI Research and Policy Bulletin, Issue 16, February.

Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Southern Research Centre, 2006, ‘No easy solution: housing options for low income South Australians’, Research and Policy Bulletin, Adelaide.

Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, 2007b, Older Australia at a glance: 4th edition. Cat. No. AGE 52. Canberra: AIHW.

Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2008a, Housing Assistance in Australia, Cat. No. HOU173. Canberra: AIHW.

Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2008b, ‘Public rental housing 2006 07:Commonwealth State Housing Agreement national data report’, Housing Assistance data development series, Cat. No. HOU 170, Canberra, AIHW

Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2008c, ‘Community housing 2006 07:Commonwealth State Housing Agreement national data reports’, Housing assistance development series, Cat. No. HOU 172, Canberra, AIHW.

Australian National Audit Office 2008, 'Preparation of the Tax Expenditures Statement', Audit report no. 32, Canberra.

Bank for International Settlements 2006, ‘Housing finance in the global financial market’, Committee on the Global Financial System Papers, no. 26, January.

Battellino, R. 2007, ‘Some observations on financial trends’, Reserve Bank Bulletin, October.

Birrell, B. & Healy, E. 2008, ‘Melbourne's population surge’, Centre for Population and Urban Research Bulletin, March.

Burke, T. 2007, ‘Experiencing the housing affordability problem: blocked aspirations, trade-offs and financial hardships’, paper presented to the Financial Review Housing Congress.

Committee of Inquiry into Housing Costs 1978, The Cost of Housing: Volume 1: Report, Canberra.

Debelle, G. 2004, ‘Household debt and the macroeocnomy’, BIS Quarterly Review, March, pp 51-64.

Debelle, G. 2008, ‘A Comparison of the US and Australian Housing Markets’, Address to the Sub-prime Mortgage Meltdown Symposium, Adelaide, 16 May.
Demographia 2008, 4th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey (written by Wendell Cox and Hugh Pavletich with introduction by Don Brash).

Department of Families, Housing, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs, 2008, Budget Fact Sheet – A place to call home. May.
Department of Families, Community Services and Indigenous Affairs, 2007, Housing Assistance Act 1996, Annual Report 2005-06, Commonwealth of Australia.

Disney, J. 2008, ‘Housing’, in Manne, R (ed) Dear Mr Rudd: Ideas for a Better Australia, pp 250-63.

Dockery, A. & Milsom, N. 2005, ‘Who cares about housing anyway? ’, presentation to the National Housing Conference – Perth October 2005.

Edmund Rice Centre 2007, ‘Home truths: the housing crisis in Australia', Just Comment, Vol 10, No. 6, Edmund Rice Centre for Justice and Community

Ellis, L. 2006, ‘Housing and housing finance: the view from Australia and beyond’, Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Papers, no. 2006-12, December.

Ellis, L. and Andrews, D. 2001, ‘City sizes, housing costs and wealth', Reserve Bank of Australia Research Discussion Papers, no. 2001-08.

Fujitsu Consulting 2008, ‘Anatomy of Australian Mortgage Stress’.

Garnaut, R 2008, Garnaut Climate Change Review Interim Report, February.

George, H. 1879, Progress and Poverty.

Gurran, N. 2008, ‘Affordable housing: a dilemma for metropolitan planning?’, Urban Policy and Research, vol. 26, no. 1, March, pp 101–10.

Gurran, N., Milligan, V., Baker, D. & Bugg, L. 2007, ‘International practice in planning for affordable housing: lessons for Australia’, AHURI positioning papers, no. 99, September.

Hall, J. & Berry, M. 2007, ‘Public housing: shifting client profiles and public housing revenues’, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute Final Report, no. 108, November.

Hancock J. & Barnett, K. 2005, The Rent Assistance Program: A Synthesis and Analysis of Stakeholder Views. Final Report, Department of Family and Community Services.

Harding, A., Lloyd, R. & Greenwell, H. 2001, Financial Disadvantage in Australia 1990-2000. The persistence of poverty in a decade of growth, NATSEM and The Smith Family.

High Commissioner for Human Rights, 1991, The Right To Adequate Housing (Art.11(1)), Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights, General Comment 4, Sixth Session, 1991.

House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, Finance and Public Administration 2007, Home Loan Lending, September.

Industry Commission 1993, Public Housing, Canberra.

International Monetary Fund 2008, World Economic Outlook, April.
Ipsos Mackay Report, 2004, ‘Australians at home’, Ipsos Australia, Sydney, December.

Ipsos Mackay Report, 2007, 'Living with debt’, Ipsos Australia, Sydney, March.
Kadmos, C. & Pendergast, P. 2001, ‘Housing needs of people affected by mental health problems – Perth’, Shelter WA, August.

Kryger, T. 2006, ‘House prices’, Parliamentary Library research notes, no. 7:2006 07.

Lawson, J. & Milligan, V. 2007, ‘International trends in housing and policy responses’, AHURI Final reports, no. 110, December.

Merrett, D. 2000, ‘Paying for it all’, in Troy, P (ed) A History of European Housing in Australia, Cambridge University Press.

National Housing Strategy 1991a, ‘The affordability of Australian housing’,
National Housing Strategy Issues Papers, no. 2.

National Housing Strategy 1991b, ‘Australian housing: the demographic, economic and social environment’, National Housing Strategy Issues Papers, no. 1.

Otto, G. 2007, ‘The growth of house prices in Australian capital cities: what do economic fundamentals explain?’, Australian Economic Review, vol. 40, no. 3, September, pp 225–38.

Parliamentary Library 2006, ‘House prices’, Research Notes, no. 7, 2006-07, October.

Productivity Commission 2004, First Home Ownership, Productivity Commission Inquiry report, no. 28, March.

Property Council 2007, ‘Boulevard of broken dreams’, January.

Reserve Bank of Australia 2002, ‘Recent developments in housing: prices, finance and investor attitudes’, Reserve Bank Bulletin, July, pp 1–6.

Reserve Bank of Australia 2003, ‘Submission to the Productivity Commission Inquiry on First Home Ownership’, Occasional Papers, no. 16, November.

Richards, T. 2008, ‘Some observations on the cost of housing in Australia’, Reserve Bank of Australia Bulletin, April.

Robertson, R. 2006, ‘Thinking about the big drop in Australian housing affordability’', Macquarie Research, 22 December.

Salt, B. 2005, Australia on the Move: Population Growth and Dwelling Demand 2001 2031, Property Council of Australia.

Sedgwick, S. 2008, 'Solution to housing affordability "crisis" is to help the market work better’, The Australian, 13 March, p. 30.

Self, P. 1995, ‘Alternative urban policies: the case for regional development’, in Troy, P (ed) Australian Cities: Issues, Strategies and Policies for Urban Australia in the 1990s, Cambridge University Press, pp 246-64.

South Australian Centre for Economic Studies 2008, Independent Audit of Government Contributions to Housing Assistance. Final Report, January.

Stapeldon, N. 2008, ‘A history of housing prices and rents in Australia 1880-2007’, paper presented to Asia-Pacific Economic and Business History Conference, University of Melbourne, 13-15 February.

Stilwell, F. & English, J. 2004, ‘Housing affordability, stamp duty and land tax’, University of Sydney, Political Economy working papers, no. ECOP 2004–2, April.

Stretton, H. 2005, Australia Fair, University of New South Wales Press.

Sutton, G. 2002, ‘Explaining changes in house prices’, BIS Quarterly Review, September, pp 46-55.

Symond, J. 2007, ‘Addressing the housing affordability crisis’, August.

Tanton, R., Nepal, B. & Harding, A. 2008, Wherever I Lay My Debt, That's My Home. AMP and National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, University of Canberra.

Tasmanian Legislative Council Select Committee on Housing Affordability in Tasmania 2008, Housing Affordability in Tasmania, April, Hobart.

Tsatsaronis, K. & Zhu, H 2004, ‘What drives housing price dynamics: cross-country evidence’, BIS Quarterly Review, March, pp 65-78.

Tu, W. 1999, ‘The dynamics of Australian housing prices, 1989–1998' in

Yates, J. & Wulff, M. (eds) Australia's Housing Choices, AHURI, University of Queensland Press.

Urban Development Institute of Australia, Queensland Division, 'Report of an industry inquiry into affordable home ownership in Queensland’.
Urban Development Institute of Australia, 2007, An Industry Report into Affordable Home Ownership in Australia, August.

Waters, A. 2001, ‘Do housing conditions impact on health inequalities between Australia’s rich and poor? ’, AHURI Final Report No. 4, October, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute.

Yates, J. 2007, ‘Affordability and access to home ownership: past, present and future?’, AHURI Research reports, no. 10, November.

Yates, J. 2008, ‘Australia's housing affordability crisis’, forthcoming in Australian Economic Review.

Yates, J. & Gabriel, M. 2006 ‘Housing affordability in Australia’, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, National Research Venture 3: Housing Affordability for Lower Income Australians. Research Paper 3, February.

Zhu, H. 2006, ‘The structure of housing finance markets and house prices in Asia’, BIS Quarterly Review, December, pp 55–69.


So? That's no reason to derail threads with sneering comments just because other people may be interested in housing affordability surveys and you are not.

Not sneering, questioning. And though I may not be passionate about home affordability, based on the selective "research" you're engaged in, it's pretty apparent you aren't either.

Judging by the kudos I have received for my posts in this thread (thanks guys) you are in the minority here TF. Most people here seem to appreciate the alternative surveys that I posted.

So it*is* about playing to the crowd


No need to be.
 
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looks like the UK may have a few issues to deal with ....

Seriously Alarmed
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
In the UK, sterling's slide has become disorderly, and the British government may be losing control. The pound is currently teetering on a two-decade support line; if it breaks that line, traders may send it crashing down towards dollar parity. The danger is obvious: the $4.4 trillion of foreign liabilities accumulated by UK banks are twice the size of the British economy. UK foreign reserves are virtually nothing at $60.6 billion. If the government is forced to nationalize RBS and Barclays with their vast exposure in dollars, euros, and yen, it risks being submerged. While sovereign states allow national debt to climb in a crisis or a war, it is irresponsible to take on foreign debts on such a scale with no reserves. This is the moment when the reckless debt experiment of economic and political leaders comes back to haunt. While Iceland resolved its problems by defaulting and refusing to honour the foreign debts of its banks, the UK cannot do that. Its debts are too big, and such action would set off a global panic, sending the world into deep depression. The reckless conduct the stock market, the fiscal incontinence of UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown and the lack of regulation with respect to the UK housing boom have combined to bring the country to the brink of disaster. Adopting the euro ten years ago would have made no difference; the bubble would have been just as bad, or worse, as Ireland and Spain can attest. The baby boomers have had their moment in power, writes Evans-Pritchard. The most spoilt generation in history has handled affairs with its characteristic hedonism. The results are coming in.

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans-pritchard/blog/2009/01/20/seriously_alarmed

i can't believe this post was made today - clearly off 3month old data. all the FOREX blokes i know are screaming BUYBUYBUYBUYBUYBUY on the pound - all bulls there for the next few weeks at least :rolleyes:

anyone linking to the telegraph deserves to be shot.
 
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