KeenWalk - A prediction of falling property prices

You'd think this guy would give it a rest.
Whats his motivation for telling everyone other than his students about his predicitions?

1. To scare the bejesus out of all and sundry, especially investors?
2. Be the poster boy for the D & G brigade?
3. he's addicted to the celebrity he has found in the media and this is helping his academic career?


Or all of the above?

I hope his predictions are wrong.

If values fell 40%, wouldn't that just mean that either no-one could get a loan, which would be pointless trying to sell anyway

OR

all and sundry would then rush out to purchase and fight over properties, thus pushing the prices back up to (or near to) where they were before they dropped the predicted 40% ?

If all I owned dropped 40%, I think I would just hang on to it, as long as my rents covered the out goings.

I don't get it.... maybe its more complex than my little brain can handle.:)
 
If all I owned dropped 40%, I think I would just hang on to it, as long as my rents covered the out goings.

I don't get it.... maybe its more complex than my little brain can handle.:)

I think you will find this is the case in many states in the IOU's of A. People are in negative equity but continue to hold on in the belief that all things should return to normal given time. It most cases they do but not all.

A very similar circumstance to what happened in Japan in the 80's.

It is complex and to get a better understanding, read his blog. You do not have to agree or disagree with him, but it is better to understand a person view rather than be blindly bias.

Why does someone have to be a doom and gloomer if they offer an alternative to all the property spruikers. Just part of the ying and yang of life.

Also note, that property skyrocketed last year, so a fall of 10% would only put prices back to 2008 levels. Should only effect those who purchased last year.

Cheers
 
We may not see a 40% drop however wouldnt be surprised to see a more than 10% drop. It will be an interesting year for Australia I think
 
i call Keen a chump because i think he's weak and likes the spotlight and made a lot of money from his scare campaign and i hope it was enough to pay off the equity he gave up by selling his unit and....

it has nothing to do with the validity of any viewpoint. assumptions make many taste their toes.
 
You'd think this guy would give it a rest.
Whats his motivation for telling everyone other than his students about his predicitions?

1. To scare the bejesus out of all and sundry, especially investors?
2. Be the poster boy for the D & G brigade?
3. he's addicted to the celebrity he has found in the media and this is helping his academic career?


Or all of the above?

I think point 3 is right on the money. According to his blog, he seems to be the only economist who predicted the GFC. This is clearly wrong, as there were many others who predicted some form of crash, including the 'black swan' guy. (Sorry, can't remember his name)

Keen also predicted interest rates would be zero by 2010, and unemployment wouild be 10% to 15%. It was a great way to get himself on 60 minutes, and a lot of ink.

To paraphrase Paul Keating, Keen is a media nymphomaniac, and instead of apologising for his ridiculous predictions, or doing his walk quietly, he has created a website devoted to his walk. The website explains why he was right, even though the market - the ultimate scorecard - says his property predictions were WAY off.
 
Hi Blue Cards,

Is this an assumption or fact. Where would have the money come from, appearance fees, surely not his donation from his blogs. Most doomers are tight.

Cheers

his today tonight interviews net him a "consult fee" every time he appears, as well as Ch9's Today show.

he sells an eBook, linked to on the TT site as well, for $10.

he's big on internet marketing.

he uses medians to provide structure to his arguments which only follow market values, not market trends. any economist will tell you that a median value is possibly the worst indicator of average value.

 
I think point 3 is right on the money. According to his blog, he seems to be the only economist who predicted the GFC. This is clearly wrong, as there were many others who predicted some form of crash, including the 'black swan' guy. (Sorry, can't remember his name)

Keen also predicted interest rates would be zero by 2010, and unemployment wouild be 10% to 15%. It was a great way to get himself on 60 minutes, and a lot of ink.

To paraphrase Paul Keating, Keen is a media nymphomaniac, and instead of apologising for his ridiculous predictions, or doing his walk quietly, he has created a website devoted to his walk. The website explains why he was right, even though the market - the ultimate scorecard - says his property predictions were WAY off.

couldn't agree more. kudos
 
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