L.A. Now Smaller Than Melb! Should We Grow Our Regional Centres?

[BayView]

Australian Population is small and concentrated on the coast as this is very fertile land and hnce unitll the population reaches over 50m the inner areas will always be less polpulas then the coatal ior city areas

If the population was to jump to 50 mill over the next 20 years, I will bet my houses that 95% of them will be in the cities.

No-one wants to live in the country anymore, and with the farming industry being swallowed up into corporations who control thousands and millions of acres and going automotive, there will be no work for the majority there anyway.

My brother-in-law is the manager of a group of farms owned by one corporation up near Deniliquin. It used to be 10 separate farms, is now only one, and the staff is 1/5th of what it was 5 years ago.

That town is dying; the retail volume is going backwards and can't support the traders in the town, but the farming is still at the same output pretty much.

 

[wylie]

... mentally ill patients out on the street becuase the system can't afford to keep them any more..and so on.

This part is the same in Australia.

I know of two people with schizophrenia (one is the brother of a friend, the other a sister-in-law) who are regularly taken by family to the psych ward of the public hospitals suffering delusional behaviour. Another friend's mother has done a few stints at a private psych ward.

In all cases, as soon as possible, they are back on the street. Two are returned to whoever will take them, or their own houses, where they decide they are "well" again and stop taking their medication. The other chap is just turned out to whatever half-way type accommodation can be found, where he too is left to his own devices.

They are in and out like yo-yos. I think the government has a lot to answer for in having closed down so many facilities over the past 30 years or so where these people could live fairly "normal" lives, but who could have some supervision so that they stay on their medication, and hopefully live some type of "normal" lives.

These cases are disasters waiting to happen, and very stressful for the families involved.

I think our health system is shocking in this particular regard.

 

[our obsession]

From the Vic DSE site:

http://www.dse.vic.gov.au/CA256F310024B628/0/D7F59D5AE0780779CA257341001D73EB/$File/DPCD+1-Pop+change.pdf

http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q...ZlNd3R&sig=AHIEtbRha9PaqZtiTQS5E2lvXi-tGaNMXQ

Posted both links to same data, Obsession trouble with links again. Oh well.

Some brief excerpts--> well worth a read, nice graphs.

Urban and Regional Population Change

Urban and regional growth rates

At 30th June 2006, the population of Victoria was estimated to be 5.1 million with 3.7 million people in Melbourne and 1.4 million in regional Victoria.

Victoria’s average annual growth rate was 1.3% in the period 2001–06, the same rate as for Australia overall.

Geographical differences

Between 2001 and 2006, Melbourne recorded average annual population growth of 1.5%, compared to 0.8% in regional Victoria.

Melbourne grew faster in the period 2001–2006 compared to 1996–2001, while regional Victoria grew at a slower rate. Melbourne’s share of Victoria’s population was estimated to be 73% in 2006.

Melbourne has grown faster than Regional Victoria in all intercensal periods since
1986–91 (figure 2).

Towns and cities

Major regional centres recorded population growth between 2001 and 2006 especially Bendigo, Ballarat and Geelong (figure 4).

Most small towns in the western third of the state lost population during the period, continuing long established trends.

Nevertheless, larger centres such as Horsham and Hamilton grew. Coastal towns experienced mixed growth rates – highest near Melbourne, Geelong, Warrnambool and Bairnsdale

The maps they have, (see link) visually help in explaining the role of the regional city(s) catchment role(s).

 

[our obsession]

..and this, also interesting reading:

http://www.business.vic.gov.au/busvicwr/_assets/main/lib60139/moving forward - final report- v2.pdf

Department of Innovation, Industry and Regional Development Progress review of Moving Forward Final Report

(August 2009)

Snapshot, working my way through:

4.1 Population trends

Population growth in regional Victoria is a priority for the Victorian Government. The rationale for this objective is that population growth will encourage economic development, job growth and will support local services and amenities.

There are a number of factors which drive population growth in regional areas. In Victoria the story is complex, with key drivers of growth including:

 Economic opportunities, such as employment opportunities as well as business and investment opportunities

 ‘Liveability’ of regional areas compared to Melbourne.9 Liveability refers to the perceived and real qualities associated with residing in a particular geographic area, including quality and cost of housing, services such as schools and medical, the environment and recreational opportunities.

Recognising these drivers, the Victorian Government has sought to design appropriate programmatic responses which will enhance economic opportunities in regional areas and enhance the lifestyle appeal of regional centres and smaller towns.

Additionally, Moving Forward has provided a vehicle for the Government to encourage individuals and families to move to regional Victoria to live and work. In particular, Moving Forward included two prominent campaigns:

Key observations from the data presented in the above table are that population growth:


 in regional areas has accelerated since the early 2000s

 rates between Melbourne and regional Victoria have increasingly converged since this time.

Population growth trends in regional areas have shifted over time.

Areas with perceived lifestyle advantages (in particular, Barwon South West) have had the strongest population growth over the period.

In recent years, however, strong population growth has been recorded in regions such as Gippsland, which had previously experienced a decade of slow growth and economic hardship caused by industry restructuring

 

[Sunfish]

An article in the Weekend AFR (pp27 1-2/05/2010), points out that both Melbourne and Sydney are larger than all U.S. cities except New York !!

Thats right even bigger than L.A. at 3.8mil. Yet while the U.S. has 150 cities between 100k and 400k population, we have just 10.

I was looking at Indianapolis on G Earth a couple of days ago. It had two big airports with well organised parking around what appeared to be the international airport, freeways and fly-overs everywhere.

I was there because CNN said it had suffered badly on property prices. I couldn't handle the northern cold but it looked to be well catered for and livable. Sydney traffic is chaos.

Maybe our biz leaders need to smell the roses and open offices and plants in the regions. Maybe our guvmints should provide the transport and infrastructure to make it possible. Everyone thinks small: No further than the next budget.

 

[BayView]

Maybe our biz leaders need to smell the roses and open offices and plants in the regions. Maybe our guvmints should provide the transport and infrastructure to make it possible. Everyone thinks small: No further than the next budget.

Have to agree S.

A good example is where we live on the Mornington Peninsula. We are 1 hour from the CBD.

There is an hour and a half drive (at least) to Tullamarine Airport, and the population down here and across to almost the other side of Westernport Bay is increasing.

This is clearly a case of a growing need for another airport of large scale to be built on the Eastern side of Melb.

As well as that; the train line ends at Frangers. We live 30 mins further on than there, and it's another 35 mins down to Portsea, and there is a steady increase in our area of younger families and workers (yay! property values go up! ).

As well as that; the Rosebud Hospital down here from us is a terribly under-serviced one, and the time is well nigh for a state of the art facility for our growing population.

But I don't think it is encumbent on the Gubbmint to actually DO it; they need to make it more attractive for the private sector to take the bull by the horns and want to create the developments.

But, the whole process is so prohibitive, so no-one wants to take the plunge.

Bring back JEFF KENNETT!

 

[.toe]

Having lived there (L.A) for almost 2 years, I find this VERY hard to believe. L.A is far more congested as a whole than Melb. The County of L.A alone has 12 mill. I think the State of California has more people than the whole Aus population.


Absolutely not.

Again, having lived in the US for nearly 3 years, I can promise you that their lifestyle is no better than ours; in fact, for the majority of people - middle class and below - their lifestly is worse. Their healthcare system is a disgrace; for example, when we moved there, my wife's job paid for HER health insurance, which was 75% cover. The rest was out of her pocket if she needed any medical attention. Now, given that your average appendix operation (not a major op these days) would cost around $10k, this leaves the patient $2,500 out of pocket. Not only this, but the time off from work comes out of your HOLIDAYS; there is no sick leave as such.

My son and I had to supply our own healthcare, at a minimum cost of $500 per month - yes; $500 PER MONTH. We organised our own insurance from Aus before we left to go there - travel insurance at a cost of just under $2k per year. If we got sick, we had to pay our medical bills first, and then apply for re-imbursement. This was the only way we could afford to get adequate insurance.

There are homeless and jobless people wandering the streets in every city and town we visited there, and we visited PLENTY. The main reason; bankruptcy from medical expenses. other reasons; mentally ill patients out on the street becuase the system can't afford to keep them any more..and so on.



So, as an add on from the last sentence of mine; what makes anyone think that a large population is going to improve our Country?
The US economy is a wreck, and the average person is broke, and getting broker.

All we will be doing is adding more noughts to the population, and for what benefit?

If you think increasing our population in Aus is a good thing, you are a bloody idiot.

And finally, cop this; we just got off skype with one of my wife's ex-work colleagues who now lives in Oakland. She is a nurse too. The Hospital where she works is currently NOT hiring any more nursing staff. I'm talking NO-ONE; not even casual "travellers", who are the mainstay of their staff during shortages, and they are even talking about lay-offs..

As well as this; her brother-in-law who is an engineer has just applied for a job (he lives in Chicago) and there were 800 - yes 800 - job applicants.

Now, does having another 250 million odd people sound like this is a good outcome for the greater economy?

Bayview I wasn't arguing for larger population in country areas. My argument was that whatever population growth we do have, should be enchouraged toward cities other than state capitals. Which is why in my last post I mention TAC shifting headquarters to Geelong. You appear to me to be arguing along similar lines?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunfish
Maybe our biz leaders need to smell the roses and open offices and plants in the regions. Maybe our guvmints should provide the transport and infrastructure to make it possible. Everyone thinks small: No further than the next budget.

Have to agree S.

 

[BayView]

Bayview I wasn't arguing for larger population in country areas. My argument was that whatever population growth we do have, should be enchouraged toward cities other than state capitals. Which is why in my last post I mention TAC shifting headquarters to Geelong. You appear to me to be arguing along similar lines?

My argument is for NO population growth AT ALL.

Anyone who thinks any population growth will IMPROVE our lifestyle and economy is delusional.

What we need to do is make our existing population more productive.

But, our Gubbmints are hell-bent on supporting the losers and spongers of humanity, instead of kicking them in the @rse, throwing their @rses into the armed forces for 10 years if they refuse to get off their @rses and go to work and pull their weight..

 

[Deltaberry]

You know what will really improve your lifestyle. Imagine if everyone died and there were only 100 people in the world. You could eat all he oysters there is and not have to pay for it.

 

[Sunfish]

If there are only 100 left you would NEED to eat the oysters.

 

[Neophyte]

You have to know the US city to be able to calculate its size correctly.


For example with Melbourne population, does Melton count? Frankston + Peninsula? Dandenong used to be a separate city.

Greater New York (as in the solidly built up area) probably has more like 20 million people maybe more. Melbourne CBD has 500K workers or so. Manhattan (while much bigger) has over 10 Million workers.

The trouble for regional areas is they need industries that bring dollars in. Agriculture and mining do this. White collar industries (programming, finance, insurance, design, etc..) won't locate into regions because the qualified staff aren't there now and people won't move there until the jobs exist at several similar companies not just one. I'd move to the country but the work I do doesn't exist there and even if it did I'd want at least one or two local fall-back options before I'd commit to moving my family somewhere long-term.

Compare to say the UK where there are (now) lots of high paying white collar jobs in the cities like Manchester and Liverpool.

 

[.toe]

Compare to say the UK where there are (now) lots of high paying white collar jobs in the cities like Manchester and Liverpool.

Thanks Neophyte, this goes to the point I was trying to make, that it would be cost effective and worthwhile for government policy to enchourage new industries in second tier cities. Such as by moving the TAC to Geelong.

 

[Neophyte]

.toe I agree that government should encourage the location of good jobs in regional cities.

CBD rents are pretty steep, why does banks, etc... need all their back office staff in premium office locations?

Government departments need to be the first to move. This is because individual business' won't take the risk and bear the adjustment cost of losing and finding replacement staff.

Rumor I heard was that TAC had a massive turnover of staff who weren't prepared to move or who would commute to Geelong from Melbourne, despite lots of relocation dollars on offer.

 

[our obsession]

Neophyte:

The trouble for regional areas is they need industries that bring dollars in.
Agriculture and mining do this.

White collar industries (programming, finance, insurance, design, etc..) won't locate into regions because the qualified staff aren't there now and people won't move there until the jobs exist at several similar companies not just one. I'd move to the country but the work I do doesn't exist there and even if it did I'd want at least one or two local fall-back options before I'd commit to moving my family somewhere long-term

More industries are always a welcome consideration in regional cities, but it isn't therefore necessarily the be all-end all..."proportionatly wise, relative to" the cities in regional Vic they are doing okay.

Growth wise, (as stated in my links), the disparity b/w metro and regional cities is closing.

Proportionatly wise there is good programming, finance, insurance, design industry, maybe not upper echelon, not necessarily lowest of the echelon, but bread and butter in betweens.

As you state, your perceptions, your needs and wants are specific to you and your family, but that is not necessarily a fair representation of the other one third of Victorians that live in regional Victoria. It's all in balance, relative...

From:

http://www.business.vic.gov.au/BUSVIC/STANDARD.HTML/PC_63551.html

A Snapshot:

The research, Relocated Residents Survey, commissioned by Regional Development Victoria and conducted by the ASCET Group and the Centre for Regional Innovation and Competitiveness at the University of Ballarat, studied 369 residents who had relocated to a provincial Victoria location in the past 10 years.

Seventy six per cent of people surveyed said they were satisfied with their decision to relocate and 60 per cent found life in provincial Victoria better than they expected.

The findings will help inform the Victorian Government's Make it Happen in Provincial Victoria campaign, which aims to encourage Melburnians to live, work and invest in regional and rural Victoria

Relocated Residents Survey Final Report August 2009

From:

http://www.business.vic.gov.au/BUSVIC/LANDING/1101428127/SEC12.html

Regional Development Victoria

Regional Development Victoria (RDV) is the Victorian Government's lead agency in developing rural and regional Victoria and was established as a statutory body by the Regional Development Victoria Act 2002, and began operation on 3 March 2003. RDV is responsible to the Minister for Regional and Rural Development, Jacinta Allan.

Our focus is on investment attraction, job creation, exports, creating stronger economies, communities and infrastructure to create a strong and growing provincial Victoria. There are a number of programs to:

promote business and industry development
work with local government and communities
help new businesses establish themselves
pave the way for existing industries to grow and diversify

You will find the interest and support for developing business and enterprise within even the smallest of small towns is enthusiastic..it is, generally speaking the smaller towns dealing with growth decline, the bigger catchment towns/cities are flourishing, despite drought, despite financial crisis.

There is a good proportion of the population that will continue to choose to reside or migrate to regional lifestyle.

(Toe, am sending u a PM-got u something).

The Regional Infrastructure Development Fund (RIDF) has been established to improve the competitive capacity of regional Victoria and enhance economic development through investment, job creation and the promotion of export opportunities.

The RIDF provides support for capital works that will enhance the development of rural and regional Victoria to:

support new industry development
link transport infrastructure
improve tourism facilities
better link regional Victoria to new opportunities in education and information and communication technologies (ICT) infrastructure
Who can apply?
Applications will be considered from the following organisations in regional Victoria:

Local government authorities in provincial Victoria
State Government
Regional infrastructure providers
Regional organisations
Business groups
Higher educational institutions
How to apply for RIDF funding

For organisations interested in applying for funding, the RIDF guidelines set out all you need to know, including which types of projects are eligible and how projects are selected...

From:

Programs, Grants & Assistance - Regional Development

http://www.business.vic.gov.au/BUSVIC/STANDARD/PC_61042.html

Site Map:

(Not even counting what is happening at local levels, aside from government structures)

Regional Development
Moving Forward in Provincial Victoria
Arts, Cultural & Recreational Facilities
Live, Work & Invest in Provincial Victoria
Sponsorship for Events
Provincial Victoria Sponsorship Program for Key Events Guidelines
Provincial Victoria Sponsorship Program for Local Events Guidelines
Renewal of the Provincial Economic Partnerships
Investments & Exports
Buy Locally Campaign
A New Investment Partnerships Program
Primary Industries
Dairy Industry Roads Program
Forestry
Managing Growth
Support for Councils to Manage and Plan for Growth Guidelines
Skills
CRISP II Guidelines
Provincial Leaders Development Program Guidelines
Small Towns
Small Towns Development Fund II (STDF II) Guidelines
Sustainable Development & Land Management
Transport Infrastructure
Moving Forward: Programs & Grants
Provincial Victoria Growth Fund
New RIDF Initiatives
Working with Others
Food and Beverage
Industry Investment
Regional Infrastructure Development Fund (RIDF)
How to Apply for RIDF Funding
Current RIDF Priorities
Announced RIDF Projects
2010 RIDF Projects
2009 RIDF Projects
2008 RIDF Projects
2007 RIDF Projects
2006 RIDF Projects
2005 RIDF Projects
2004 RIDF Projects
2003 RIDF Projects
2002 RIDF Projects
2001 RIDF Projects
2000 RIDF Projects
Announced Natural Gas Extension Program (NGEP)
RIDF Evaluations, Reviews & Case Studies
Evaluation of Industrial Estate Development
Dairy Power Infrastructure Upgrades (DPIU) Program
National Livestock Identification Scheme (NLIS)
Stock Over/Underpasses Road Safety Program
Audit of Industrial Land in Provincial Victoria
Hepburn Mineral Springs Bathhouse refurbishment
Wangaratta Performing Arts Centre Development
Contacts & Assistance
Programs, Grants & Assistance - Regional Development
Contacts and Assistance
Regional Strategic Planning Initiative
RDV Newsletters
RDV Newsletters
RDV Publications
Research and Reports
Case Studies
Directories
Regional Development Australia (RDA) Committees
About Regional Development Australia
RDA Victoria Committees
Committee Chairs, Deputy Chairs and Members
Contacts for More Information
Research and policy development in regional Victoria
Calendar of Events

 

[Deltaberry]

You should check out the Chinese cities. Some random cities like Hahaland or Babaland are more populated.

 

[.toe]

our obsession, I see you've put a bit of thought into this and clearly there is movement on this front already. Still I do fear that the actual results of the goverment's regional push might get lost in their ever expanding urban growth boundary (Page6)

Also worth noting is the population change in a growth area of Melbourne like Tarneit vs Bendigo or Geelong

 

[our obsession]

Although none of us are able to predict the future, my best estimated guess is Bendigo will do fine, hold it's own. It is an entity of it's own.

Sometimes the beast gets big enough to devour, and not necessarily be devoured.

Bendigo, incidently of which, I happen to invest in:

http://www.bendigoadvertiser.com.au...endigo-hospital-wins-473-million/1820015.aspx

NEW BENDIGO HOSPITAL WINS $473 MILLION

NICOLE FERRIE
04 May, 2010 06:03 PM

PREMIER John Brumby has announced $473 million to build Bendigo's new hospital.
Mr Brumby made the announcement outside the Anne Caudle Centre, which will be the site of the new hospital, early this morning.

The new hospital has been described by the government as the centrepiece of today's State Budget.
Tenders for Bendigo's biggest ever capital works project are exected to be called in 2011, with construction expected to commence in 2012.

For more details on today's state budget, log on to www.bendigoadvertiser.com.au from 3pm today for Bendigo Advertiser deputy editor Nicole Ferrie's reports from the Budget lock-up.

.

...and a bit of :

http://www.businessbendigo.com.au/File.axd?id=c2563035-46ec-4cdd-8a79-5ca713e239cf

Population Growth and Skills

The region is expected to experience continued
sustained population growth in the future based
on improved accessibility to Melbourne, affordability
advantages and lifestyle opportunities.
Critical to
this will be the need to ensure that the population
is appropriately skilled to contribute to economic
development and to build innovation capacity.


Strategy 1 - Continue to support and develop initiatives
which can assist in the development of a skilled labour
force to support future industry needs

Strategy 2 - Continue to support and develop the
Skilled Migration Program in Greater Bendigo

Strategy 3 - Identify industry development opportunities
based on regional competitive advantage which can
assist in local workforce development

Industry and Business Support

A key role of Local Government in economic
development facilitation is in industry and business
support. This includes building appropriate networking
linkages throughout the business community, identifying
and encouraging value adding to the existing business
base and reviewing industry challenges in light of global
competitive pressures.

Strategy 1 - Continue to support and develop industry
linkages between government agencies, local businesses
and representative groups

Strategy 2 - Explore opportunities for value adding
of existing industries and attraction of new businesses
which can enhance innovation potential in the region

Strategy 3 - Continue to identify and assess local
business challenges relating to global competition
pressures

Strategy 4 - Ensure that the region can respond
effectively to spontaneous and ‘ad hoc’ business development opportunities

 

[our obsession]

cont...(excerpt) for anyone interested:

The growth of Bendigo’s business community
is supported by the City of Greater Bendigo’s
Business and Economic Development Unit.

As part of its strategic direction the team of
professionals in the unit offer expertise across all
business sectors. The Unit supports and identifies
opportunities for growth and investment, and
is recognised for its long standing networks and
relationships with local industry and government
agencies. Through its strong association with
all business sectors the Unit has a sound labour
market intelligence and proven ability to facilitate
strong linkages for businesses.


One of the Unit’s well established undertakings
is its active Skilled Migration Program that
supports local business growth by attracting
global intelligence to fill gaps at the professional
level across the Bendigo region.

The programs advisory capacity with Continuing Education
Bendigo assisted in establishing a highly successful
cultural diversity professional development and
education program offered to professionals,
business owners and managers, community
leaders and employees across Bendigo..

In addition, the Program has hosted a world
renowned academic to talk to Bendigo business
people about the economic benefits of diversity.
The success of the program is attracting interest
from around the world, and is currently the
subject of an international benchmarking study
to be carried out by Newcastle University in the
United Kingdom.

From: http://www.businessbendigo.com.au/File.axd?id=c2563035-46ec-4cdd-8a79-5ca713e239cf

which is within "Buzzing Bendigo": http://www.businessbendigo.com.au/

Our city is buzzing. Our city is buzzing with growth and activity. It’s a place where you can make things happen.

Our history of adventurers and entrepreneurs lives on today in the independent spirit of dynamic local businesses. Bendigo Bank, Fernwood Fitness Centres, Bendigo Mining, Myer and Jimmy Possum Furniture were all born in Bendigo and remain here still.

From small businesses to multinational corporations, Bendigo is home to over 4,000 businesses that offer multiple career opportunities

And on a personal note, our investing, (in Bendigo), has been rewarding and astute...just our experience.

I think Victoria is big enough for everyone, and we have a distinct advantage of being a compact state, our satellite regional cities are well established...I see the smaller towns merging into it's nearest bigger centres...but over time, and probably not happening in my lifetime...

 

[our obsession]

Toe, the study findings would be of great interest to me..(where is my nerd icon?????)

 

[topcropper]

Amazing Prediction.

I'm reading the local rag. Front page news is, Liverpool Plains population to drop.

It seems that according to NSW dept of planning, the Liverpool Plains shire will drop in population from 8,000 to 6,800 by 2036.

Now I don't agree with this at all. Agriculture is now fully mechanised. There are rules of physics that tell me that machinery can't get much bigger. Weight and span. Even if farms get bigger and corporatised, it won't reduce workers from now on. Agriculture is even getting more intensive with chooksheds and feedlots and stuff now. Mining is just starting. We are being inundated with tree changers and mine workers looking for acreage. Our little primary school bottomed out at 40 kids and 2 teachers 5 years ago, down from 140 kids 30 years ago when I went there. It has now grown to 55 kids and 3 teachers.

This is completely ludicrous. However a silly report like this is likely to be a bit self fullfilling. Government is going to be carefull about spending infrastructure here if our population is apparently going to plummit. We already have just one doctor, an oldish Indian bloke, serving the 8000 people. Doctors won't come out here now, so this won't help.

We are a region chock full of wealth, a massive exporting region, and this comes out? Some public servant in Sydney or Canberra probably got 200k to work this out. All he has done is look at the past 50 years and carried it on.


See ya's.