Discussion in 'Property Investment - Other' started by DonkeyKong, 24th Nov, 2007.
So Labor is winning the race to the office. What do you think going to happened to property price?
There will be a lot of uncertainty out there in the market place.
therefore perhaps some short term softening in prices.
im very worried
I know this is a property forum but I will be watching the markets at 10.00am monday with much anticipation. I predict big falls due to the uncertainty. I really am worried for the future of the property investment game in this country. The greens gave preferences to labor but no one knows the deal behind this???
I know one of the Greens policies to ease housing affordibility is to scarp the 50% expemption on CGT. Negative gearing next perhaps?
I do not understand why a Nation with such a great economy and even a better economic manager (Treasurer Costello) has just tossed aside this great Party. I am not sure if ppl know that when they voted for Rudd they didnt only vote for him but they voted for the Labor party and its ambitions...
Anyway we will see what happens but I am not optimistic.
Haven't you heard yet..............
All resi property investing will shortly be banned.
I'm a property and stockmarket investor and cheering that Labor got in
I'm sorry but it is somewhat naive to think that market falls will result as a move to the Rudd government.
I believe that the reason this Nation with such a great economy tossed aside the "great Party" is because the Liberal's have failed on several fronts - social policy, workers rights, the environment, poor foreign policy....the list goes on.
The biggest threat to this Country's prosperity isn't Labor assuming office on Monday, it is what is going on in the world economy right now - if the markets drop on Monday it certainly won't be because Rudd is PM, it will be because the markets have been dropping over the last several weeks as the US Credit crunch progressively unwinds and more and more losses are revealed as the US economy inches closer to possible recession.
I can't see Rudd modifying current CGT treatment in any significant way. His "me too" stance on the economy wouldn't allow this significant a shift. His position on being an economic conservative is something that I believe sincerely.
I respect people's right to different views on politics, but claiming stock markets and property markets will fall simply because of this change in government are somewhat misguided - it's like claiming that interest rates will go up more now that Labor is in power (they almost certainly will, but it won't be because Labor is in power).
My view that this election is almost the election you wouldn't wish on any party - the coming years are going to be extremely turbulant for the world and the increasingly corellated world markets, and this is going to effect Australia in a significant way.
absolutely spot on there.
My view that this election is almost the election you wouldn't wish on any party - the coming years are going to be extremely turbulant for the world and the increasingly corellated world markets, and this is going to effect Australia in a significant way.[/QUOTE]
1. As with this change in the new Australian Govt under Kevin Rudd and the recent change in its RBA Chairmanship to Glenn Stevens, we are entering into a new era - of changes and new uncertainities evolving.
2. Will Australia continues to be "lucky" enough with its new un-tested economic leadership to be able to escape unscathed from the unfolding of the various ongoing global financial crises with housing markets and real economies starting to slow down in the US, UK, Spain, New Zealand, Japan, (China with an "over-heated" Economy), the continued weakening US$ Currency and with sudden increase in oil prices flirting at its historical high levels at/near US$100 ber barrel?
3. I do not think that the Australian Government system is being strengthened in any way with a single ALP governing Australia at both the Federal and the local States Levels.
4. In fact, by losing its in-built check-and balance system with an all Federal-State ALP Govt structure, the Australian political system is being unneccesarily "weakened" as a consequence as it can be easily subject to abuse by the ALP Government.
5. Australians will have to live with the required changes and other outcomes that a single ALP Government will bring in the near future.
6. Whether Kevin Rudd and his ALP Government or/and as well as the new RBA under Glenn Stevens are able to safely and effectively steer Australia, out of the present oncoming global financial crises, as in the past, are yet to be seen.
7. Thus, whether these likely short term changes are good for Australia in/of itself or otherwise, we can always re-evaluate the outcomes accordingly in due course and to re-visit this issue again, at/before the next Federal Elections in 2011, where neccessary, please.
8. Thank you.
Absolutely nothing different than if Liberal retained office!
1. It seems that the mood for a change in leadership was apparently self- evident in the Eastern States but no so in WA. Many people are getting "bored" with old John and Kevin Rudd was more well-liked and more popular with the younger Australian voters.
2. Apparently, the economic prosperity enjoyed by Australia over the last 11 years under the Liberal Coalition Government, has also failed to filtered down to all the Australian households, to arrest the prevailing mood for a change in the Australian leadership.
3. It would also appears that John Howard has apparently "over-stayed" his welcome period as MP for his Constituency at Bennenlong as well as the PM of Australia, against the wishes of the Australian peoples and his own faithful constituents.
1. I am not sure if this is indeed true, as the electoral moods over at the Eastern States and in WA are apparently quite different.
2. Let us see how the Perth property market as well as their Eastern states property markets will next develop over the next 3-6 months period, after the change in the Australian Government as led by Kevin Rudd and his ALP Team.
3 As a foreign investor, I see more risks investing in Australia now, with this "un-timely" change in its Government whose new leadership is much un-tested midst the present worsening financial crises, which is fast spreading into a contagion in the Western World, stretching from the US, UK, Spain, New Zealand (and as well as over in East Asia in countries like Japan, India and China). This is especially so, with the prevailing high housing prices and a strong A$ Currency.
Yeah, yeah ... labour is in ... the sky is falling.
Me thinks too many people actually believe Johnny's rhetoric.
Your posts seem to follow an interesting numbering system I've noted - not bad just interesting!
Let me reply accordingly:
1. Absolutely - I think the world is entering into a new era - geopolitics, resource depletion and scarcity, and man's increasing impact on the natural habitat are going to be emerging themes. The government in power in Australia won't be able to halt this, but the government's response to these challenges and it's leadership will be critical. Is Labor up to this? Only time will tell. The "masses" will need a clear and confident leader when the going is getting rough though....
2. I believe in checks and balances - Coalition gov's in both fed houses over the last few years was a bad combo, I want to see a balance of power held in the senate moving forward - Labor should never hold the senate ever while they're in power in the lower house. I don't have an issue with Labor holding Federal and State powers as that may actually help with some of the tough decisions - water allocation, reform and control of various services (healthcare for an ageing population for example) etc.
3. My thoughts are that this risk is present only if Labor holds the Senate as well. I hope that Labor at both federal and state levels will result in faster implementation of reforms.
4. Not completely sure what you mean with this point sorry....but the Nation has spoken and their voice states that they'd like to try the potential changes that Rudd will implement.
5. Agree wholeheartedly - it is a tall order for any government and the RBA, I would say virtually impossible given Australia's current economy and strong links to global markets. The only way I would see Australia being insulated from the current unfolding crises is for a fundamental internal shift of our economy to occur from us being the world's mine to being a diversified miner, manufacturer and service exporter - nothing like this will happen in the next 10 years that's for sure....so we're going to be at the mercy of the rest of the world.
6. Agree again - the clock is ticking on Rudd to prove himself, and if he stuffs it up Costello or maybe Turnbull will become PM at the next election (despite supporting Labor I actually like Costello, and since I'm a banker I also like Turnbull....). If Rudd can keep the economy powering along, but also bring social justice back to Australia and work on our foreign policy while coping with the challenges I outlined in my earlier post, then he'll be in power a long time. If he is a puppet for the unions and winds the clock back 5-15 years to the era of picket lines then I can't see him lasting long.
7. You're welcome and thank you!
hard to say really. the economic landscape has changed so suddenly it is hard to predict an outcome. On the one hand the repalcement cost of your buidlings will leap with unionism and inflation pushing prices up, however affordability is likely to worsen as govt regulation and unemployment on a macro scale deteriorates.
I would say new developemt will be put on the back burner, supply will be reduced, prices will go up and less volume will be achieved? So current owners will be better off, however home ownership will reduce
It's gotta be said one last time.....
1. Australians voted in Kevin Rudd and his ALP Team as the new ruling Government of Australia today.
2. If the Australians are not confident of their own new PM, why vote him in the first place and at such an "un-timely" period?
3. The next 100 days are actually adjustment period for the various levels of the Australian Government to get used with the new Government within itself as well as for the Australian people to get used to the new Government way of working. More changes can be expected in the immediate near future.
4. Seriously speaking, can Australia truly afford to put an "L-plated" driver to drive a heavy tank at the frontline in a real battlefield?
5. I am not sure how many people are going to get badly hurt soon as a result of this new "PM-on-trial" arrangement?
6. As an foreign investor, I will thus, need to be more cautious about investing in Australia, henceforth, in this case.
1. Do Australians, like your goodself, seriously think so, objectively speaking?
2. Many local Australians in WA, apparently do not think so, based on the ground feedback which I have received over the last few days. They seem to prefer the Liberal Coalition Government to continue to govern Australia.
3. At the economic front, both the Australian share market, housing market and GDP numbers are actually all doing very well under John Howard's Liberal Coalition Government. This is despite the various on-going financial crises unfolding themselves, at this point in time.
4. Is Kevin Rudd and his new ALP Government able to produce better results for Australia in the near future?
5. Personally, I doubt that they can within the next 100 days.
Could it be demographics at play here? Were these people the type who would normally benefit more from the policies of a conservative government.
I was at a function tonight and when the news came through people cheered, they seemed to take exceptional glee at the fact that Howard was losing his own blue ribbon seat. From this I sensed a lot of anger not so much for the liberal party but towards him personally. Perhaps if he had retired gracefully things would have been different.
Mind you, these were not all successful business people. In the main, regular people whose kids can't get a go on a computer at school because there either isn't enough or they are old and inoperative.
Some were people with parents in substandard aged care. They would normally be able to pay for something better but can't due to the burden of the high price of housing themselves and family.
No doubt there was some there sitting on waiting lists for "elective surgery" (I know this is a state issue but Howard started that one not me).
Whether the new govt. will make any difference in these areas I don't know and I'm not holding my breath waiting.
However most were just embarrassed by the unethical and unaccounted behavior that the previous government continued right up to the last moment. They have been listed many times so I don't need to elaborate, nor debate the list.
I believe the numbers tonight substantiate my point.
Sorry Kenneth but I seriously doubt someone of your intelligence will reconsider investing in Aus just because we traded up to a newer model.
Would you seriously forgo profits just because of Rudd, or is your caution because you sense a change that was happening before todays result?
Hope this helps in your understanding of our decision.
I must add the function I was attending was not a political function.
In fact given the day it was held on and in order to keep the peace, there was a strict "no politics" rule which everyone held until someone yelled out the results later in the evening.
This study may help
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