Latest commentary from Residex

[johnnyb]

Hi All,

A lot of you probably already get this, but for those who don't Residex have provided some data showing growth rates for property prices over the last 10 years. I have attached an image which I hope is legible.

Everyone always talks about the average 10% growth per year - here is some data to back it up.

John.

 

[alexlee]

Yeah, but the growth is lumpy. I mean, Perth has had psycho growth for the last 3 years but the 10 year average is only 10%. Which means the first 7 years were pretty dead.

Same with Sydney: massive growth from around 1998 to 2003, but negative growth from 2003 - now.

In short, there IS timing in the market, but if you drag it out for long enough (20+ years), say, you'll achieve pretty much the average. 10 years isn't long for properties.
Alex

 

[Tizzy]

Great little comment in the newsletter also about still being some steam in the Perth market for those who want some "short term trading" with a bit of risk thrown in.

 

[Andrew_A]

There is a lot of data around regarding CG. I have been accumulating all the disparate sources into a spreadsheet titled 'economic indicators' This was a result of always wanting a piece of information I was seeking and knew I had seen, but couldn't remember where!

Good points Alex.

From my own experience I did a study of 3 units (2 Bris, 1 GC) recently that tracked the 7.34% figure (from the attached data provided by Johnny) very closely over 15+ years (in once case 28 years of data). This is growth that doesn't include the rental on these units, so an accumulation index would be a better measure.

 

[erwinsie]

There is a lot of data around regarding CG. I have been accumulating all the disparate sources into a spreadsheet titled 'economic indicators' This was a result of always wanting a piece of information I was seeking and knew I had seen, but couldn't remember where!

Good points Alex.

From my own experience I did a study of 3 units (2 Bris, 1 GC) recently that tracked the 7.34% figure (from the attached data provided by Johnny) very closely over 15+ years (in once case 28 years of data). This is growth that doesn't include the rental on these units, so an accumulation index would be a better measure.

@ andrew a

is it possible to have a look at your file above?? thanks in advance~!

 

[TheAnalyst]

I do not why people do not talk about the nonsense on the methodologies the industry but playing on words of the rubish conclusions.

The fundamental problem with the midium house price estabished has been totally wrong or misleading.

On a basis statistics/possiblity, sample should be analyed to get accurate results. However in Real Estate industry, no body values the data it self but based on the stupid data from the "sales" evidence.

 

[Andrew_A]

@ andrew a

is it possible to have a look at your file above?? thanks in advance~!

Copyright info included, so I will be keeping it private.

There's heaps of free data on here and the web though, just a good idea to store it all in a central place when you encounter it.

 

[stretchy]

I do not why people do not talk about the nonsense on the methodologies the industry but playing on words of the rubish conclusions.

The fundamental problem with the midium house price estabished has been totally wrong or misleading.

On a basis statistics/possiblity, sample should be analyed to get accurate results. However in Real Estate industry, no body values the data it self but based on the stupid data from the "sales" evidence.

I do believe Residex have their own proprietry price gauge now to solve the problems of median statistics. Of course, no one has a clue that it is any better or worse yet

 

[johnnyb]

I do believe Residex have their own proprietry price gauge now to solve the problems of median statistics. Of course, no one has a clue that it is any better or worse yet

Yes, my understanding is that Residex do not calculate the % change based on the change in the median price. I think they calculate the growth rate of each property based on its sales history. They must then "average" this to give an overall market growth. The median price in thier tables must be for reference only.

John.