Latest unemployment figures are out

I was one many times in the late 80's-90's, but I am still here.

Dave

sorry dave and i appreciate your kind thoughts , but i was not refering to me just those in general.
i am self relient now and work for me but cheers!

If only those old bosses would do what i ask of them i might still be relient on employment, but luckely they did not however its turned out to much greener pastures { some days }
 
Mmmm - a bit more than the 5.5% most 'pundits' seemed to be expecting. Did they give any breakdown on a State-by-State basis, Dave??

Cheers
LynnH
 
0.267A!OpenElement&FieldElemFormat=gif


glfsursa.gif


clearly we're all going to die.

1998 - 2008 averages collated and averaged across 12m from here

http://www.economagic.com/em-cgi/data.exe/rba/glfsursa

Feb 2008 - in the most recent time - is the lowest UE rate of just 3.92% - still almost double when compared to the 60s.

and i get an average of 5.797% unemployment from 1964 to 2008 - or 45 years

taken from 1980 to 2008 - or 29 years - the average is 7.320%


from 1998 to 2008 - or 12 years inclusive, the average is 5.3%

.

suddenly 5.7% doesn't look so bad, does it?

i did this exercise for me as much as this thread - it just confirms what i've been saying about figures all along.
 
I think it's less about the percentage but more about the trend. We're almost certainly on the way to double digit unemployment, at least in some states.. When people start to perceive there is a chance they could get sacked they start to go into their shell's.
 
Mmmm - a bit more than the 5.5% most 'pundits' seemed to be expecting. Did they give any breakdown on a State-by-State basis, Dave??

Cheers
LynnH

I daresay if you downloaded the files from here
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsPage/6202.0Mar 2009?OpenDocument you could work them out, but this is from that other site that shall remain nameless;)

Unemployment rate by state, seasonally adjusted, plus MoM chg %
QUOTE
......rate...% chg
NSW....6.9....1.0
VIC....5.7....0.1
QLD....4.8....0.3
SA.....5.9....0.2
WA.....4.9....0.8
NSW & WA leading the unemployment charge! The unemployment rate has jumped 1.7% (from 5.2% to 6.9%) in NSW and 1.9% (from 3.0% to 4.4%) in WA since Dec 08 so March is no one off. I expect both states' governments to get a media grilling as a result.
Not sure how reliable the original poster's figures are, possibly made them up or twisted them to suit their glass half empty view:p:D:p

Dave
 
I think it's less about the percentage but more about the trend. We're almost certainly on the way to double digit unemployment, at least in some states.. When people start to perceive there is a chance they could get sacked they start to go into their shell's.

did you miss this graph....?

glfsursa.gif
 
I daresay if you downloaded the files from here
http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/DetailsPage/6202.0Mar 2009?OpenDocument you could work them out, but this is from that other site that shall remain nameless;)

Not sure how reliable the original poster's figures are, possibly made them up or twisted them to suit their glass half empty view:p:D:p

Dave

No, just used the ABS spreadsheets for each state.:) Like WA News:
WA jobless rate soars in March
Chris Zappone
April 9, 2009 - 12:22PM

WA's unemployment rate leaped almost 1% in March, the second-highest jump of any state, as mass redundancies bite into the state's job market.

The state's jobless rate rose to 4.9%, seasonally adjusted, from 4.1% in February on the back of layoffs announced by corporations including miners Rio Tinto, Norilsk Nickel and Iluka; Bankwest; and the state's largest meat exporter, Harvey Beef.

Only NSW had a bigger jump in jobless figures, with the seasonally adjusted rate hitting 6.9% in March, from 5.9%, a full percentage point jump.

The jobless rate in fellow resource state Queensland rose to 4.8% from 4.5%. South Australia nudged up to 5.9% from 5.7%, while Victoria, which benefits from a diverse economy, rose only 0.1 of a percentage point to 5.7%.
Queenslanders should be relatively happy. Hopefully for them Rio Tinto gets to partner up with Chinalco and they don't have to shed more jobs there.

But as Blue Card points out 5.7% is nothing historically, although his chart needs this year's numbers to better emphasise his point that the peak would need to be much higher for it go get above long term averages.
 
did you miss this graph....?

glfsursa.gif

no...

I don't suppose you noticed what i wrote about the trend being more important than the percentage itself at this stage... That graph is going to look a lot more nasty in 6 months and keep getting uglier for a good 2 years at least.
 
But as Blue Card points out 5.7% is nothing historically, although his chart needs this year's numbers to better emphasise his point that the peak would need to be much higher for it go get above long term averages.

Yes, 5.7% isn't much historically but that isn't the point. It is now pretty obvious that Australia will end up with unemployment at a peak of at least 8 or 9%.
 
you're on drugs.

so a small upturn in the, decade long, graph we see there is INSTANT call for AT LEAST 8 or 9% UE figures? ever heard of a "whipsaw"....? seems like 10% UE was also likely in 2000 and 1995 where similar events occurred - but it never eventuated.

i would love to see your substantiation behind such a fantastic claim.
 
you're on drugs.

Not these days.

so a small upturn in the, decade long, graph we see there is INSTANT call for AT LEAST 8 or 9% UE figures?

Yes, i think this. Based on what i have seen over the last six years as an employer it gives me a bit of a unique view. Hell, my bother inlaw just lost his job tonight.

i would love to see your substantiation behind such a fantastic claim.

No real substantiation as per graphs etc etc, just a feel for condition. I work in the construction industry and employ people (15 in total), win jobs from week to week etc etc. I know when times are hard and we're in hard times now.

Mind you, i don't think we are going to see massive fall's in property prices or shares from here on in but keeping people employed from an employer's perspective (mine) is a very difficult proposition atm.
 
Guys i wouldnt worry too much about unemployment figure releases. They are one of THE most lagging indicators of the economy.

Concentrate your efforts at reviewing forward indicators, these give an indication of where will be in the near future and are MUCH MORE IMPORTANT.
 
Guys i wouldnt worry too much about unemployment figure releases. They are one of THE most lagging indicators of the economy.

Concentrate your efforts at reviewing forward indicators, these give an indication of where will be in the near future and are MUCH MORE IMPORTANT.



This is a property investing forum isn't it..??

Unemployment is certainly a lagging economic indicator, but it's a leading indicator as far as property prices go.

So I would say property prices even lag unemployment in the economy.

Don't dismis the effect high unemployment figures will have. Even the government and bullish pro-property economists are assuming 8% unemployment, and more bearish ones 10% plus.

The level of unemployment we get to will make or break property prices.



And if I hear one more person on SS say,...
...."Oh, 8% unemployment means 92% are employed".....

,..Im gunna puke. That is such a dumb thing to say.

See ya's.
 
Last edited:
Did I say 8% unemployment is the end of the world?

I'm saying unemployment is a leading indicator of where property goes, and I'm surprised at how so many here are dismissing what's happening in the jobs market.



8% is definately not the end of the world. The way things are going, 8% will be a great outcome, and will mean property will hold up nicely.

See ya's.
 
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