Long Term Housing Trends - Where should we be investing?

hi all,

fairly new here, looking to start making some investments for long-term growth (30+ years)

I'm looking to get advice on what types of property will become more desirable over that time frame

My feelings are that villas/townhouses/units will be more sought after over this time frame for the following reasons and therefore will make better investments; what do you think?

It seems to me that with an ageing population there will be more people downsizing from their family homes to smaller properties

People are, anecdotally, more focused on lifestyle, 'experiences', etc - wanting to travel overseas, eat out from home, etc. This may mean people are looking for smaller properties, smaller mortgage so that they have more for their lifestyle or so they can be closer to work/city.

Particularly in Sydney, property is so expensive people may look at alternatives

A lot of the people I talk to are less interested in yardwork, maintaining a garden or vacuuming entire houses, they would prefer to have a smaller place and more time for other things

Kids are spending less time outdoors, more time on computers, etc - meaning less demand for large backyards

On the other hand: houses are getting bigger each year and we are spending more of our income on housing according to the ABS, so maybe people will continue to pursue the "australian dream" of a house and land, whatever the cost

Also: I feel that over the last twenty years a number of factors have contributed to increased housing price growth by either increasing demand or decreasing the costs of holding property

1) Negative gearing

2) Mining boom and associated increase in household wealth/incomes

3) Transition from high interest rate environment to low interest rate environment

4) First home buyer incentives

5) Reduction in income tax rates

Given most of these factors are one-offs, what policies/events do people think will sustain growth in house prices over the next 20-30 years?
 
Also: I feel that over the last twenty years a number of factors have contributed to increased housing price growth by either increasing demand or decreasing the costs of holding property

1) Negative gearing

2) Mining boom and associated increase in household wealth/incomes

3) Transition from high interest rate environment to low interest rate environment

4) First home buyer incentives

5) Reduction in income tax rates

Given most of these factors are one-offs, what policies/events do people think will sustain growth in house prices over the next 20-30 years?

I think the advent of easy credit has been the biggest driver of price growth over the last few decades and whether this continues is a matter of debate.

As far as future gazing goes, my bet is that:

Cashflow focus will see yield take greater prominence in total returns.

Growth towards satellite CBD's and advances in technology and communication will see a shift towards micro Manhattanisation.

Last but not least the ability to leverage into property within SMSF will continue to grow in popularity (prudent or not) and see an ever growing new segment of demand.

All of this is just my opinion though.
 
I think the advent of easy credit has been the biggest driver of price growth over the last few decades and whether this continues is a matter of debate.

...

Growth towards satellite CBD's and advances in technology and communication will see a shift towards micro Manhattanisation.

Last but not least the ability to leverage into property within SMSF will continue to grow in popularity (prudent or not) and see an ever growing new segment of demand.

1) Agreed - easy credit has been a big factor - and it is one I should've added to the list. But I guess it is another example of a factor that is a one-off. We can already get LVRs of 90-95%, but I don't think there is much room to stimulate demand in the availability of credit responsibly (without inducing an American-style boom/bust picture) into the future

2) The SMSF situation is a good one, I hadn't thought of that and I agree, I am sure that will help maintain demand
 
1) Agreed - easy credit has been a big factor - and it is one I should've added to the list. But I guess it is another example of a factor that is a one-off. We can already get LVRs of 90-95%, but I don't think there is much room to stimulate demand in the availability of credit responsibly (without inducing an American-style boom/bust picture) into the future

Yes 90-95% LVR loans are available, but not always that easy to actually obtain finance for these LVRs.

Access to credit isn't just to do with the LVR, that is just one factor.
 
My take: Long term housing will prominently need to cater for professional Indian couples or Chinese couples with no children or maybe just one child. However, this demographic doesn't wish to rent or buy a 3 bedroom all Australian Classic home with the big backyard on a 1/4 acre block, they don't mind living in a 2 or 3 bedroom home on an easy care allotment, preferably close to transport or where they work. They don't really care for all the pointless luxuries that most us Anglo's expect or take for granted, but prefer a more practical living situation to suit what is necessary, this is what I would Invest in.
 
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