Magic Moo Cow

Interesting that he is promoting this strategy again. He had this to say about the first round of seminars in this very forum here and I admired his honesty for it.
 
Anyhow, I went to the show last November, joined the game (which for a newbe I would recommend) and have been doing a little trading live with FF (expensive, but best place to start) and solo via Commsec (cheap but easy to get into trouble especially via margin loan).

I think the above quote from Peter Spann is really spot on, not that I'm anywhere near qualified to comment of course.

My objective is just some additional income to assist with holding my few remaining properties by using some equity in those properties to help generate the income. This is income that once come via NavraIvest, but that space is just no longer adequate.
 
I went to the one in Adelaide last night. I admired his honesty and courage to admit his wrongs etc.

Its all new to me so i'm keen to learn about it.

I like the strategy and will probably implement it along with the property.
 
Anyhow, I went to the show last November, joined the game (which for a newbe I would recommend) and have been doing a little trading live with FF (expensive, but best place to start) and solo via Commsec (cheap but easy to get into trouble especially via margin loan).

I think the above quote from Peter Spann is really spot on, not that I'm anywhere near qualified to comment of course.

My objective is just some additional income to assist with holding my few remaining properties by using some equity in those properties to help generate the income. This is income that once come via NavraIvest, but that space is just no longer adequate.

Have you bailed from NavraInvest?

Retail Fund now around 77c
 
Neither the fox's style nor substance is for me. I won't be going back to the lair.

The play seems to be to endear people with humor, light heartedness, and an overly simplistic analogy.....play up the easy (sounds like 'risk free') cash flow....who could do with more cash?....who wants to drive a ferrari.....who wants to do lots of stuff with easy money.....easy money.....yeah....easy money......anyone who works for wages is a mug easy money.

5 minutes of that would do me......let alone the first 2 hours.

Once the analogy is done, then 10 minutes to skirt around the strategy for those who want to do it on their own......with fuzzy incomplete sound bites of the downside risk and capital preservation.

Then, an hour to salvage people from the uncertainty and hassle of self management, the whole point of the night -> passive investment in the managed fund.....

Thanks but no thanks Mr. Fox.
This bunny will keep hopping.
 
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Have you bailed from NavraInvest?

Retail Fund now around 77c

Down to about 25% of what I once held, just have holdings in family trust now (bought at average $1.20 so just no point in bailing at this time out as the loss would be trapped in the trust). I'm a shareholder and continue to give positive comments on the fund, it just does not pay like it once did (or should) for reasons beyond the scope of this thread, and perhaps the patience of the forum administrators.
 
Down to about 25% of what I once held

One of the reasons I am against funds is most don't obey the first two rules of investing

Rule 1. never lose money
Rule 2. never forget rule 1.

Whereas, using a simple moving average of around 200 days for entries and exits on the asx accumulation index tracker STW, a return of ~24% pa could have been achieved in the period of the Navra retail fund.

With most downside risk eliminated, one could have used a 70% margin loan with more confidence, and got a ~35%pa return......and all for no fees.

stw.gif
 

Sim

Administrator
...and all for no fees

Just a clarification for the sake of being pedantic.

STW does have fees, although they are quite a bit lower than most actively managed funds.

0.286% MER + brokerage to buy/sell + approx 0.07-0.14% bid-ask spread (ideally this bid-ask spread should be close to, or at least, approaching zero, it is a function of market depth and transaction volume).

If you are using a margin loan, you are also paying a lot of extra "fees" too - there are a lot of "fees" built into the interest rate which are not transparent.

BTW, I think STW is a great product.
 
Thanks Sim. I have just been reviewing STW's finer details here.

I'd expect STW's fee to be smaller, as tracking the asx200 should be comparatively passive for a fund manager.

I suppose the 3.5%+ dividend would compensate the fee and slippage...and strengthen STW's result if included in comparisons against funds that report in total returns terms.
 
Hi all,

As we are talking funds here and have morphed into index funds, a little comparison of how the all ords, and the equivalent from before, from Wren Investment advisors here...

http://www.wrenresearch.com.au/downloads/index.htm

....has performed over the long term, should be useful.

I looked at the time it took the index to double from the 1901 level of 10.

First doubling to 20 first happened in Dec 1913. 13 years

Next doubling to 40 first happened in Feb 1926. 13 years

Next doubling to 80 first happened in Apr 1946. 20 years

Next doubling to 160 first happened in Apr 1959. 13 years

Next doubling to 320 first happened in Feb 1968. 9 years

Next doubling to 640 first happened in Aug 1980. 12 years

Next doubling to 1280 first happened in Oct 1986. 6 years

Next doubling to 2560 first happened in May 1997. 11 years

Next doubling to 5120 first happened in Oct 2006. 9 years

Next doubling to 10240 first happened in ...... my guess is around 2018 as each time we have had a short doubling time, the next doubling time tends to resort to the "normal" time period for a doubling. This would lead to an 'average' performance of about 9.5% pa from the current ~4900 level for the next 8 years.

Of course we must assume that history is not bunk...

bye
 
One of the reasons I am against funds is most don't obey the first two rules of investing

Rule 1. never lose money
Rule 2. never forget rule 1.

Thanks for the heads up, never crossed by mind....:rolleyes:

Whereas, using a simple moving average of around 200 days for entries and exits on the asx accumulation index tracker STW,
Is that a "sell all" when price crosses below 200 period average, then "buy all" when crosses going up ? Or do you adjust the quantity bought/sold relative to the distance from the average (bit like NI I suppose) Not asking for your secrets, just curious.

a return of ~24% pa could have been achieved in the period of the Navra retail fund.

And most other funds got more than that too! :mad: NI was playing "safe"
 
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Rule 1. never lose money
Rule 2. never forget rule 1.

Whereas, using a simple moving average of around 200 days for entries and exits on the asx accumulation index tracker STW, a return of ~24% pa could have been achieved in the period of the Navra retail fund.
With most downside risk eliminated, one could have used a 70% margin loan with more confidence, and got a ~35%pa return......and all for no fees.

WW as much as I'm a critic of many of fund managers, it's not that simplistic or easy.
Think you can slap a couple MAs on a chart and buy & sell never making a loss?
Please try it for yourself and see.
Though I am of the opinion that a couple EMAs can be very useful and one of my fav tools.

Once the analogy is done, then 10 minutes to skirt around the strategy for those who want to do it on their own......with fuzzy incomplete sound bites of the downside risk and capital preservation.
lol I'd say that's all it takes.
I've seen much simpler strategies get blank looks from a room of ~100 people.
And after an hour of repeating, still no clue.
You either get it or you don't.
If you don't, then I'd say it does'nt fit your paradigm which means you have to put some time into it.
Or get someone else to do it for you, which in the funds industry means they have all the upside potential and your left with the downside.
And it must be noted that simple does not mean easy to execute.
 
Have you bailed from NavraInvest?

Retail Fund now around 77c


What happened to the navra invest fund? I remember they went fully cash not far from the bottom. I thought that was a bit dumb at the time. Did they get back into the market at the right time, or did they stuff up?


See ya's.
 
Thanks for the heads up, never crossed by mind....:rolleyes:

Nor Steve's. :rolleyes:

Is that a "sell all" when price crosses below 200 period average, then "buy all" when crosses going up ? Or do you adjust the quantity bought/sold relative to the distance from the average (bit like NI I suppose) Not asking for your secrets, just curious.

Trend indicators are used when there's a high probability of a trend apparent....DCAing during a trend would counter the logic behind using a trend indicator to time entries and exits.

Google a quantitative approach to tactical asset allocation mebane faber

And most other funds got more than that too! :mad: NI was playing "safe"

riding a market down in unprecedented global economic conditions isn't really safe.
 
WW as much as I'm a critic of many of fund managers, it's not that simplistic or easy.
Think you can slap a couple MAs on a chart and buy & sell never making a loss?
Please try it for yourself and see.
Though I am of the opinion that a couple EMAs can be very useful and one of my fav tools.

PB, my criticism of Navrafund related to dd's during a market that any seasoned fund manager could recognize as strongly trending. If 35%+ dd's are kosher on your book, that's your business. Personally, I've never had anything near that. I'm doing fine following the strategies and proprietary indicators of Teresa Lo nand a bit of precious metal speculation.

lol I'd say that's all it takes.
I've seen much simpler strategies get blank looks from a room of ~100 people.
And after an hour of repeating, still no clue.
You either get it or you don't.
If you don't, then I'd say it does'nt fit your paradigm which means you have to put some time into it.
Or get someone else to do it for you, which in the funds industry means they have all the upside potential and your left with the downside.
And it must be noted that simple does not mean easy to execute.

Well, if the fox reads your views, hopefully he'll be better informed about how to market his funds more directly to his target rabbits. What's the point of filling a room with 400 people on a weeknight for 4 hours when you just want the passive rabbits. There's a dozen books that explain how to do covered calls better than a 10 minute qna.
 

Sim

Administrator
What happened to the navra invest fund? I remember they went fully cash not far from the bottom. I thought that was a bit dumb at the time. Did they get back into the market at the right time, or did they stuff up?

They went to cash and the market fell nearly 20% further. Anyone with any kind of decent leverage in something like STW and who held on would have received major margin calls.

Nobody knew where the bottom of the market was going to be - I think Steve put it well when he told his clients we entered a period of "unquantifiable risk".

Unfortunately, their return back into the market was probably a bit too conservative ... at least in hindsight. Don't forget that it is easy to look back now and see how much the local market recovered, but at the time there was so much uncertainty that the risks of just jumping completely back in were extremely high. While I personally think they were a little too conservative, I do completely understand the approach and I think that risk management at the time was critical.

Here is a chart which shows the Navra Australian Share fund vs STW for the 2008/09 financial year which illustrates the move to cash and the eventual move back into the market.

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Hi all,

Here are some facts and statements by Steve Navra..

I recommend a 50% margin, (Aggressive Category will go higher)

The volatility will be much higher at times of chaos, which makes for greater distributions.

I expect the distributions to be 10% at the low end and 18% at the high end as per normal long term volatility. 10% to 14% should be the norm.

Financial year 2001/2 is a good example of DCT working well:

Market decline = -6.7%

DCT = 24.25% (17%+ distribution and 7%+ unrealized gain.)

All the above comments were stated by Steve Navra in post 230 of this thread in answer to questions of KeithJ....
http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19649

From a different thread...

http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=19162

Steve stated this in post 71..

On the contrary, when the index goes down, we will be looking fantastic!

and this in post 73....

Dear Bill.L,

Can you please explain to all of us why the best annual results I have achieved in shares have been in 1987 and in 2001?


According to the December Quarterly Update from the Navrainvest website the performance of the retail fund has been an annualised 7.56% total return over 6 years.

The 3 year total return has been -2.62% annualised.

I have been banned from commenting about, well pretty much anything to do with the Navra structure and funds etc, so I wont.

bye
 
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