Making A Relatively Safe 20% in Low-End Frankston?

Let's look at the negatives first, before becoming starry eyed:

1. Although it has plenty of infrastructure and is a rezoned beachside suburb with development opportunities, Frankston is not a high-status location. It has its fair share of social problems. Thankfully, the bogans and ferals seem to be moving inland, driven away by increasing rents.

2. Frankston is one hour from Melbourne by train - not great for commuters but fine if you work locally, as most residents do. The new highways and roads don't make much of a difference, in my opinion.

3. Crime in Frankston is around that of inner-city Melbourne. There are plenty of colourful stories about how ambulance workers in Frankston need police escorts etc. These, in my opinion, are exaggerated.

4. Paying too much for any property in Frankston, regardless of redevelopable opportunities, is not wise. Many people, including a few on this forum, have made this mistake. Regardless of what agents may say, the rewards are to be had in choosing cheap old houses on large blocks. Forget the kitchens and bathrooms - local yields are rarely more than 4% anyway.


Why do I think Frankston is such good value?

Basically there is only one reason: because the low-end of Frankston has become incredibly mispriced to the point that its pretty hard not to make a capital gain.

The median is around $360,000. However, you can easily get an old house on a dual or triple occ development site for as little as $300,000. The sort of property where you can retain the old house and build in the rear in a few years, when you are ready.

My personal estimation: if you buy in the lowest decile of house prices, you will see IMHO 20% capital gain in the next 12-18 months if you buy carefully.. Pay too much (as many did in the last boom) and you won't see that sort of gain. Again, be warned, there is no point paying more than the LQ median as there are plenty of redevelopable sites within this parameter.

Again, Frankston is not for everybody. In my opinion, the positives exceed the negatives. If one buys intelligently, making 20% in the next year is like shooting fish in a barrel.

Disclosure: I recently sold my WA portfolio, which I acquired in the 1990s, and put the bulk of my net worth into Frankston.
 
Why do you believe there's the opportunity for 20% gains in that space of time?

Because the lower end has become much too cheap relative to the general median.

IMHO its the lower end that is the most interesting. It is full of old houses that the local Council wants redeveloped. With a good town planner, almost anything is possible. I have seen people put 3 units on a site that's barely 630sqm!

I am certainly not telling anybody to buy into the top end of Frankston unless they want it for a PPOR. The profits lie in the low-end.

Provide its rentable, forget bathrooms, kitchens, gardens - think size and price.
 
That apart from the fact that Frankston council is a nightmare to deal with for any sort of planning or building permission!

I've got 2 IPs in Frankston, both around 5 years old, both bought 12 - 18 months ago, both have probably made 10% CG already if the re.com sold figures are to be believed. But then I bought well to start off with from vendors who were keen to sell.

BB
 
I've got 2 IPs in Frankston, both around 5 years old, both bought 12 - 18 months ago, both have probably made 10% CG already BB

I see that the IPs you bought are relatively new. Is there a reason for your choice? Personally, in order to get the maximum Capital Gain, I prefer older (but still rentable) junk, provided its made out of brick and is on a development sized block.

That apart from the fact that Frankston council is a nightmare to deal with for any sort of planning or building permission! B

In my experience, having the right town planner on your side makes all the difference.
 
I see that the IPs you bought are relatively new. Is there a reason for your choice?

I believe that the high depreciation in early years will offset the lower yield. Plus I can't be bothered with maintenance issues right now!

I'm getting a yield of over 5% on both, but I'm an inexperienced investor and happy to be educated if I could be doing things differently.

JB
 
I believe that the high depreciation in early years will offset the lower yield. Plus I can't be bothered with maintenance issues right now! JB

I get what you say. Depreciation can be sweet. And maintenance can be a huge burden. How big are the blocks? Can they be redeveloped? Or are you committed to holding them for yield?
 
I get what you say. Depreciation can be sweet. And maintenance can be a huge burden. How big are the blocks? Can they be redeveloped? Or are you committed to holding them for yield?

One is a 4 year old house on a 550m2 corner block. 4 bed, 2 recep, 2 bath, double garage. I don't believe the layout of the block would permit a 2nd house on the back, so if I was going to subdivide it would be a knock down in 20 years or so. Although the house is new, its a basic quality house, so this probably wouldn't be a major issue.

The other is a 6 year old house on 300m2. 3 bed, 1 recep, 2 bath, double garage. It is in a very good location and is in my opinion a better house. The best way to add value would be to go up.

I'm not planning on doing anything much with either of these for years.

I think for the time being my "strategy" if you call it that, will be to continue to buy these kind of places. I've owned PPORs since I was 19 (now 44) and they've always made more money in CG than I have in salary. As soon as I paid off my PPOR I started investing.

I totally get the old house, big block, subdivide stuff. I'm not sure I've got the stomach for it at this time so I'm doing something else, rather than not doing anything. Hopefully it works for me.

JB
 
To the person who started this thread: I am a newbie investor and I am interested in capital gain rather than yield. Can you please post links to any properties that you think may be good value and perhaps explain why? I am not interested in paying too much, as you say
 
Let's look at the negatives first, before becoming starry eyed:

1. Although it has plenty of infrastructure and is a rezoned beachside suburb with development opportunities, Frankston is not a high-status location. It has its fair share of social problems. Thankfully, the bogans and ferals seem to be moving inland, driven away by increasing rents.

2. Frankston is one hour from Melbourne by train - not great for commuters but fine if you work locally, as most residents do. The new highways and roads don't make much of a difference, in my opinion.

3. Crime in Frankston is around that of inner-city Melbourne. There are plenty of colourful stories about how ambulance workers in Frankston need police escorts etc. These, in my opinion, are exaggerated.

4. Paying too much for any property in Frankston, regardless of redevelopable opportunities, is not wise. Many people, including a few on this forum, have made this mistake. Regardless of what agents may say, the rewards are to be had in choosing cheap old houses on large blocks. Forget the kitchens and bathrooms - local yields are rarely more than 4% anyway.


Why do I think Frankston is such good value?

Basically there is only one reason: because the low-end of Frankston has become incredibly mispriced to the point that its pretty hard not to make a capital gain.

The median is around $360,000. However, you can easily get an old house on a dual or triple occ development site for as little as $300,000. The sort of property where you can retain the old house and build in the rear in a few years, when you are ready.

My personal estimation: if you buy in the lowest decile of house prices, you will see IMHO 20% capital gain in the next 12-18 months if you buy carefully.. Pay too much (as many did in the last boom) and you won't see that sort of gain. Again, be warned, there is no point paying more than the LQ median as there are plenty of redevelopable sites within this parameter.

Again, Frankston is not for everybody. In my opinion, the positives exceed the negatives. If one buys intelligently, making 20% in the next year is like shooting fish in a barrel.

Disclosure: I recently sold my WA portfolio, which I acquired in the 1990s, and put the bulk of my net worth into Frankston.

Thanks for sharing, do you know what kind of yield you can expect with this type of property in Frankston?
 
Hi One World - I've seen a number of posts of yours promoting Frankston as an investment location. I've also seen the ambulance escort line from you more than once too!

May I ask - are you still buying in Frankston, or have you finished your acqusition phase? The cynical side of me can't help but wonder if your now promoting the location so heavily as you have finished purchasing there.

I mean no disrespect as you are clearly stating your interest in the area (which is commendable).
 
Hi One World - I've seen a number of posts of yours promoting Frankston as an investment location. I've also seen the ambulance escort line from you more than once too! May I ask - are you still buying in Frankston, or have you finished your acqusition phase? .

Still buying. But very selectively.

I started this thread with all the negatives about Frankston. Why? Well, the negatives about the suburb turn me on because they scare others from getting in. I am happy for the crowd mentality to push prices down further (so I can get more bargains). My investment buy-sell horizon is the same as what it was when I was heavily invested in WA (from the mid 90s until a few months ago).

There are a few people on this forum who have made the mistake of paying too much. Personally I wouldn't buy anything that is outside the lowest price quartile. Whilst sentiment is low, time is on one's side and one can still get in on the ground floor, so to speak, if one does the due diligence.

I want to keep emphasizing that its the low-end of Frankston that I'm referring to when I say that the suburb is ultra-cheap. I am not referring to top-end houses on the beach, with lovely bathrooms and kitchens. Pay too much for these and your Frankston adventure may not give you the large capital gain that you desire.

Thanks for sharing, do you know what kind of yield you can expect with this type of property in Frankston?

To be fair, yields in Frankston are nothing special. 4% is normal, particularly for older houses. Don't expect much more. Newer houses (sadly most are on undevelopable blocks) may get higher yields. For me, capital gain is King - I don't chase yield, although I know many income investors prefer it.

In my experience, the best tenants in the area are old age pensioners. You really don't want a transient bogan/feral in your house - not worth the stress.
 
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I noticed the neighbour managed to squeeze 3 units on a similarly sized site ie. 630sqm. If so, then the block is outstanding value - a town planning precedent has been set. I am curious as to why you don't like it? Please share
 
blueskysinvic - From what I can tell, this place sold for $285K
Is that the price range you were thinking about?

Personally, I don't like the placement on block.

That site was a deceased estate sale. It is a potential three unit site STCA complete with rentable house, for $285,000. If the neighbour managed to get it passed through council, the new owner should be able to do the same and replace the old house with 3 units. That works out at around $95,000 a unit site. Depending on size, most local developers are happy to get development sites for around $175,000 per unit site...so somebody definitely got a good deal here.

I rang the agent when I saw it online and she told me she would look out for cheapies for me. So far, I have not heard from her.

This is the sort of deal I speak of that can earn at least 20% in a very short time. And much more if you are prepared to wait longer.

I have three more cheap houses to buy, either in Frankston or Seaford, then I'm done for a few years. Happy to sit on "junk" like this for a decade or so - this sort of thing is worth its weight in gold.

For anyone who is getting too starry eyed, please read my first post about Frankston. It's not for everybody. Nor am I recommending all but the cheapest deals in this highly mispriced suburb.
 
Have you developed any of the blocks yet One World?

Or have you jut purchased and land banked?

What are the units selling for?

Are they selling? How long does it take to sell these units?

What can you rent the units out for?
 
Have you developed any of the blocks yet One World?

Or have you jut purchased and land banked?

What are the units selling for?

Are they selling? How long does it take to sell these units?

What can you rent the units out for?

I have purchased most of what I want and plan to land bank for awhile, until I get plans, permits etc approved.

I plan to hold on to what I have for up to 10 -15 years. I did the same in WA in the early 1990s and it turned out well, with some of my portfolio going up as much as 8-fold. I bought at a time everyone thought it was crazy to buy, in locations that were laughably unfashionable.

Without being too optimistic, I'm hoping for a bit of the same, this time in Frankston and possibly Seaford. In a 10-15 years time these suburbs will be unrecognizable, they have fallen so much out of favor that the only direction is up. I relish the negative news as it gives us more buying opportunities.

I will develop once I can find low cost builders. This is not always easy. If I cannot find builders that meet my needs I will just sit on my hands and live with the 4% yield. Because I have bought at the cheap-end, I'm certain that capital gain will be good so, regardless of whether I develop or not, things will be OK in the long run. That does not eman its all smooth sailing....dealing with tenants etc can be a drama.

The usual disclaimer: Paying too much for anything is never a good idea. I got in cheap. I suggest that people do the same and not overpay.
 
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Was in frankston today and I had literally Walked 3 metres from my car when a man stopped me to ask where centre link was

Give it time I guess
 
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