Really?
Just because it's low doesn't mean it will go up soon.
Last year people were predicting rate rises this year.
But their opinions are not data dependent.
Absent inflation above 3% for a prolonged period, there is no reason to raise rates.
May 2015 rate cut leaked?
- Thread starter LukeLang
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Really?
Just because it's low doesn't mean it will go up soon.
Last year people were predicting rate rises this year.
But their opinions are not data dependent.
Absent inflation above 3% for a prolonged period, there is no reason to raise rates.
It's all just numbers, if housing prices were factored into CPI, there would probably be hyperinflation and ample justification for a rate rise. Without adding in housing costs to CPI its just that much less accurate.
Very likely RBA has no choice but to let rate go down more as the economy slows down more despite what they said in their announcement yesterday.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mflying View Post
stage is set for IR cut.
1. Westpac posts poor profit
2. RBA Cuts rate by .25%
3. Westpac will come out and say..blah blah...we dont make money..we cant pass full IR cut. here is what;s best we can do (Anything less then .25%)
4. other banks may or may not follow the suit.
5. Joe hockey will come swinging like last treasurer.....banks aren't being fair.. go across the road to find better deal on home loan...
6. they (Bankers and pollies) all will have drinks together at next conference!!!
this is all fiction at the moment but can be true.
Point number 6 is 100% true...can guarantee it.
The other points are likely to be true.
http://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...e-loan-rate-cuts/story-e6frfkur-1227338895950
hahaahhh!
i should be fortune teller!
Originally Posted by mflying View Post
stage is set for IR cut.
1. Westpac posts poor profit
2. RBA Cuts rate by .25%
3. Westpac will come out and say..blah blah...we dont make money..we cant pass full IR cut. here is what;s best we can do (Anything less then .25%)
4. other banks may or may not follow the suit.
5. Joe hockey will come swinging like last treasurer.....banks aren't being fair.. go across the road to find better deal on home loan...
6. they (Bankers and pollies) all will have drinks together at next conference!!!
this is all fiction at the moment but can be true.
Point number 6 is 100% true...can guarantee it.
The other points are likely to be true.
http://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...e-loan-rate-cuts/story-e6frfkur-1227338895950
hahaahhh!
i should be fortune teller!
it is already included in the CPI
yeah ok, but not resold houses/apartments which would make up a big component of housing costs for FHB and upgraders buying resold properties to live in.
6440.0 - A Guide to the Consumer Price Index: 16th Series, 2011
under housing (rents, new house prices, repairs and maintenance, council rates, water, electricity and gas)
Unemployment rate is up.
The last month's drop was unsustainable.
The last month's drop was unsustainable.
yeah they will probably revise last months numbers.
no way unemployment not go up with all the mayhem going on in the commodity markets the past half year.
Update: A guy on ABC radio this morning stated he had done an analysis of thew ABS figures for jobs created in the last quarter;
His result was that all 40,000 jobs created in that quarter were part time.
This is against a figure of 11,000 full-time jobs disappeared.
Not hard to work out what's going on.
perhaps this is will be clearer?
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/6202.0
[SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)
Employment decreased 2,900 to 11,724,600. Full-time employment decreased 21,900 to 8,115,900 and part-time employment increased 19,000 to 3,608,600. ]
http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/mf/6202.0
[SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ESTIMATES (MONTHLY CHANGE)
Employment decreased 2,900 to 11,724,600. Full-time employment decreased 21,900 to 8,115,900 and part-time employment increased 19,000 to 3,608,600. ]
No. That's not enough jobs.
As long as unemployment is above 5% ("full employment rate"), it's no good. Currently 6%-ish and expected to remain that high in next couple of years.
More people are entering the workforce than what the economy can create jobs. Population is gowing faster than jobs!
As long as unemployment is above 5% ("full employment rate"), it's no good. Currently 6%-ish and expected to remain that high in next couple of years.
More people are entering the workforce than what the economy can create jobs. Population is gowing faster than jobs!
Full time jobs are being shed at quite a fast rate too from the closure of mines and manufacturing industry.
This is not a recent thing; has been happening for several years now.
Nevertheless it contributes to unemployment which the RBA is mandated by law to control as much as they can.
Quite true.
But, this problem is completely out of the RBA's (and Gubb) control now...
We are experiencing the lowest interest rates we've ever had in this Country, and yet unemployment is still rising, and now that the Banks have shifted the lending goal posts again and tightened up lending;
We are not going to see any significant improvement in (full time) job creation anytime soon....especially with immigration and population growth.
Add another Superann Employer Guarantee contribution rise in July....
I can see a flood of limited part-time and casual jobs emerging (from some of the lost full-time jobs)...not good, but I guess some will say it's still jobs.
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Is this true?
I thought Abbott and friends already stopped this rise in super?
Edit: as part of new laws introduced by the coalition --
Super guarantee will remain at 9.5%.
From July 2021 it will increase to 10%.
It will then increase by 0.5% every year until it reaches 12%
Well there you go; things are looking up....bit less pressure on a few for a while.Is this true?
I thought Abbott and friends already stopped this rise in super?
Edit: as part of new laws introduced by the coalition --
Super guarantee will remain at 9.5%.
From July 2021 it will increase to 10%.
It will then increase by 0.5% every year until it reaches 12%
