[Melbourne] Thoughts on apartment as first home/investment?

Let me help you get this clear.

The point I made was that your assertion that what you don't get is the fact when an area is in decline that it is possible for more properties to rise in value rather than drop in value.

Whether this is happening in Melbourne I wouldn't know.
Whats the point of even mentioning it then? I'm afraid im still not clear. This is your theory not mine...
 
Whats the point of even mentioning it then? I'm afraid im still not clear. This is your theory not mine...
So that you will know that there is more than 1 possible explanation, but if that is to difficult for you to grasp you have my sympathy:p


Have you managed to come up with an answer to how pick 5% above a proven bottom or is this more fluff and no substance.
 
Have you managed to come up with an answer to how pick 5% above a proven bottom or is this more fluff and no substance.
Sure: This is impossible. I earlier explained to you I would rather pay an additional 5% from the bottom. You need hindsight to actually recognise when you have transpired the bottom of the cycle. I believe we earlier agreed neither of us could pick the bottom. If it will help you out i'm happy to let you know when i decide the time is right

I don't know that there's much more I can do to help you with this
 
Sure: This is impossible. I earlier explained to you I would rather pay an additional 5% from the bottom. You need hindsight to actually recognise when you have transpired the bottom of the cycle. I believe we earlier agreed neither of us could pick the bottom. If it will help you out i'm happy to let you know when i decide the time is right

I don't know that there's much more I can do to help you with this
Weasil

This is what you said

I can't pick the bottom, no one can, but....I 'd rather pay and additional 5% in purchase cost from a proven bottom than buy in say 10% prior to the actual bottom of a cycle. We are not there yet and talk of rushing should not be bandied about in this market

So the question remains how do you pick the proven bottom and buy 5% from that?

How can you tell a bounce is not a dead cat bounce.

Anyone who pretends to know where 5% off the bottom is in any area of investment is kidding themselves.
 
So the question remains how do you pick the proven bottom and buy 5% from that?

How can you tell a bounce is not a dead cat bounce.

Anyone who pretends to know where 5% off the bottom is in any area of investment is kidding themselves.
Waaaal, firstly for a start, if there's a bounce then it's not the bottom is it? A seasoned picker would note this.
Secondly, if you are pretending to know where the bottom is you obviously don't know where the bottom is. I agree with you if you are pretending to know where the bottom is you are kidding yourself :rolleyes:
 
Waaaal, firstly for a start, if there's a bounce then it's not the bottom is it? A seasoned picker would note this.
Secondly, if you are pretending to know where the bottom is you obviously don't know where the bottom is. I agree with you if you are pretending to know where the bottom is you are kidding yourself :rolleyes:
And you are obviously pretending to know where 5% off the proven bottom is.

What are you picking to get all this fluff from?
 
When would you rush in, how do you pick the bottom?
I doubt there would be a need to rush, much like the 7 year slump which followed the 1989 peak.

Picking an exact bottom would be difficult, but you would think it sensible to at least wait until yields return to a longer term norm...
 
I doubt there would be a need to rush, much like the 7 year slump which followed the 1989 peak.

Picking an exact bottom would be difficult, but you would think it sensible to at least wait until yields return to a longer term norm...

I'm interested in learning off Weasel who admits he can't pick the bottom but claims he can pick the point 5% off the bottom.

Surely you would also love to benefit from this incredible knowledge?

Hope he can provide us with this amazing insight.
 
I can't pick the bottom, no one can, but....I 'd rather pay and additional 5% in purchase cost from a proven bottom than buy in say 10% prior to the actual bottom of a cycle. We are not there yet and talk of rushing should not be bandied about in this market :)
Getting within 5% of the bottom is only marginally easier than picking the bottom itself.

We can each look for signs and adjust our financial situations accordingly, but there's no real way of picking the bottom or even getting within 5% of it.

Of course, we'd all rather buy in at 5% off bottom than 10%. That goes without saying. But how can we pick 5% off the bottom when we can't pick the bottom?

The other factor is picking the real bottom over the nominal bottom. If prices bottom then stagnate for 5 years, the nominal bottom is the same for the entirety of the 5 years whilst, barring a deflationary environment, prices have declined for a further 5 years in real terms. Given that Melbourne's atrocious yields rarely cover holding costs and the unlikelihood of rents tripling within 5 years, it's more desirable to buy in year 5 than in year 1, though this isn't reflected in the official (nominal) bottom.

My point is, depending on the situation, even if we could somehow know when we've hit bottom, it doesn't necessarily mean it's the best time to buy. Like picking the bottom, picking the best time to invest requires hindsight.
 
Getting within 5% of the bottom is only marginally easier than picking the bottom itself.

We can each look for signs and adjust our financial situations accordingly, but there's no real way of picking the bottom or even getting within 5% of it.

Of course, we'd all rather buy in at 5% off bottom than 10%. That goes without saying. But how can we pick 5% off the bottom when we can't pick the bottom?

The other factor is picking the real bottom over the nominal bottom. If prices bottom then stagnate for 5 years, the nominal bottom is the same for the entirety of the 5 years whilst, barring a deflationary environment, prices have declined for a further 5 years in real terms. Given that Melbourne's atrocious yields rarely cover holding costs and the unlikelihood of rents tripling within 5 years, it's more desirable to buy in year 5 than in year 1, though this isn't reflected in the official (nominal) bottom.

My point is, depending on the situation, even if we could somehow know when we've hit bottom, it doesn't necessarily mean it's the best time to buy. Like picking the bottom, picking the best time to invest requires hindsight.
Your thoughts summed up exactly all the thoughts that I had in my mind but could not express clearly myself, so kudos to you!
 
You don't have to worry about the common folk being able to afford the loan repayments as you claim to possess this amazing ablity to know when the market is 5% above the bottom will buy then.

But oddly as you have admitted you don't have the same ability to pick this bottom.

Keep picking away and let us know when you come up with anything golden.:rolleyes:
 
Clearance rate today was 66% in Melbourne with about 1200 auctions. That's the highest amount of auctions since 2010... Pretty good result
 
Clearance rate today was 66% in Melbourne with about 1200 auctions. That's the highest amount of auctions since 2010... Pretty good result
Auction reporting figures are unregulated and as such an unreliable method of deeming market conditions. Wait a week when the actual figure is revised down (as per every other week) and maybe try to chase up the unreported results :)
I can't understand why if you didn't sell a property you would not report it if you are then using these same statistics to advocate the state of the property market.....ooooww..wait on..now I understand ;)
 
Auction reporting figures are unregulated and as such an unreliable method of deeming market conditions. Wait a week when the actual figure is revised down (as per every other week) and maybe try to chase up the unreported results :)
I can't understand why if you didn't sell a property you would not report it if you are then using these same statistics to advocate the state of the property market.....ooooww..wait on..now I understand ;)
To argue that the results aren't regulated and therefore cannot be used as a measure is ludicrous; and how are the results unreliable? The REIV works very hard to ensure that quality information is recorded. They are very consistent in their reporting. Also the REIV's figures are those that the major data houses use in their data collection - so to argue that they are unreliable is to say that all statistics for Victoria are unreliable :p

Additionally, the revised figures usually have no more than 2% error of margin to the original release. So waiting a week will not serve any great purpose.

On that basis I'm happy to conclude that with 1053 auctions and a clearance of +60%, demand has met the dramatic increase in supply; indicating that Greater Melbourne has a healthy level of activity.
 
and who says that the common folk have to able to afford in most suburbs???

I cant afford a ferrari, but i certainly dont think i should be or deserve to

when i was at uni, i worked hospitality, and the wages for 1 shift would cover my weekly rent in a blue chip that rented in,

fast forward to today, its 2 shifts for the same job, it is what it is
 
and who says that the common folk have to able to afford in most suburbs???

I cant afford a ferrari, but i certainly dont think i should be or deserve to
Would be nice if common folk could afford to buy in some suburbs :(
A house is not a luxury item (read Ferrari) it is somewhere to live (read Mazda). Why shouldn't all be able to afford a Mazda? Isn't this the guts of the article I linked to :confused:

If the average punter cannot afford most suburbs don't we then see prices correct to a level where the said punter can then afford? Isn't this what we are currently seeing?
 
Would be nice if common folk could afford to buy in some suburbs :(
The common man is too busy traveling overseas and buying doodads to save a deposit to buy any property. It's always taken sacrifice. 16 years ago when I bought my first place, I wanted a fully reno'd single fronter in Albert park.
Unfortunately my budget extended only as far as a run down dump with rotting floors in a nearby suburb and even that required a 6* my gross PA lend.
The common man needs to get moving and stop the guts aching about "affordability"
 
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