I was reading this post and thought I would offer my thoughts....
I tend to agree with Harris....if you look at th fundamentals and past history. Melbourne is experiencing a classic property cycle....the boom started in the inner surburbs and is now filtering out to the middle surburbs. This year the median price for Melbourne will stablise but this does not mean the boom is not continuing.
What you will see is the price growth in the inner surburbs will stabilise and most middle surburbs will experience 20% plus growth and the outer surburbs will also do well. However, the median price for Melbourne will probably not move as much because a lot of lower priced property will will be selling.....in fact it could bring the median price down.
So if one wants a tip...don't just look at the median prices but look at regions with the property markets in Melbourne and how they are performing. My thoughts are the Western (Werribee, Point, Cook, Hopper Crossing), Northern (Craigieburn, Broadmeadows), Outer Southeast (Packenham, Carrum Downs, Cranbourne)and North West (Baccus Marsh, Melton) will see healthy returns.
I look forward to some interesting comments about how the outer surburbs will falter due to hight interest rates...I am not seeing this yet. As people who are priced out of the inner surburbs will move further out in line with affordability. This has always been the case and will always happen because Melbourne as a city is growing faster than builders can keep up with things.
How do I know this....I have been through 2 cycles....and this time I have stopped listening to the naysayers because last time I missed the boat on the outer suburbs.
I guess only the progress of time will reveal things.....