Melbourne's Hot Property Market

And here is another thought. What if most people have got it all wrong and prices are not insane. It is all relative right? We hear property prices increasing by 20% over the past year, people making 30-40% capital growth gains in less than 1 year in some places, places going for 50% above reserve, month on month, week on week strong capital growths etc...but what if Australian property (focusing on Melbourne's case, as that is where I am from) has been undervalued and dormant for all these past years. What if Australia is like a sleeping giant with the realisation of its 'true strength and value' right now? What if Australian property prices relative to the world (and what you get) should have attracted these prices 4 or 5 (or even more) years ago? What if this is equilibrium or the so called 'new equilibrium'.

Whilst I like to point out that I think prices are getting quite 'heated' but still, I only hold this 'pretty hot' line of thought based on growth that has well and truly exceeded my expectations and to some extent, the type of growth that has occurred for the past decade or so. Maybe I (as with many people) have got it all wrong, and prices are actually fair and reasonable (for what you get) and it is only NOW that people appreciate the worth of Australian residential property.

I have been thinking along similar lines only wondering if what is driving a new equilibrium is a changed pool of buyers. Im from Melbourne too and traditionally we assume the pool of buys are primarily from Melbourne and local plus regional, interstate and some international movers. A Melbourne market. Has the GFC and Australia's relative success changed the pool of buyers?

If we were in New York, London, Tokyo pre GFC prices wouldnt be looking high in fact compartively reasonable. Inner city property in these globally attractive international cities have a huge pool of buyers keeping the prices high. What if our pool has just got bigger - much bigger?

If a new global pool of buyers see us suddenly as not just a tourist destination but a good long term investment, safe and with good work and education prospects for families - how much bigger could the pool of buyers get?

To a global pool of buyers perhaps Melbourne still looks cheap? If so prices will still keep going up until we no longer look like a compartively lucky country.
 
To a global pool of buyers perhaps Melbourne still looks cheap? If so prices will still keep going up until we no longer look like a compartively lucky country.


I think the pool of buyers has certainly gotten more international, and this is not necesarilly just because there are more overseas buyers.

It's also because as a developed, fairly advanced country, we are embracing globalisation quite quickly. Many of us have been overseas, lived overseas, worked overseas (I have certainly done all 3 in Western Europe and Eastern Asia. Only place I haven't really workedin/understood well enough is North America). A lot of expats originally from Melbourne are now coming back to raise a family, because they see better prospects here, they got made redundant in North America, whatever the reason. They come back and think "ah it's not too bad here... $700k for a fairly livable 3-bedroom little house within 10kms of the city." You certainly won't be finding that in many respectable cities where Goldman Sachs bothers to have an office (and it does have one in Melbourne). Having more overseas buyers also helps to bring our city in line with other ones on the other side of the globe.

One way to stop this growth is to disengage with globalisation, but it all depends whether the majority of our population in marginal seats wants to take the country one step back (they probably do though).
 
Underquoting happens everywhere. I'm looking at this place that's quoted 670-730. It's the same as its neighbour which just sold for 1.1m a few weeks ago. Hah
 
Underquoting officially back - agent

Underquoting happens everywhere. I'm looking at this place that's quoted 670-730. It's the same as its neighbour which just sold for 1.1m a few weeks ago. Hah

Only two weeks ago an agent told me that 'underquoting was officially back - in fact agents are under instruction for it to be routine' at least 15%.

Not sure what 'officially back' means. Can only assume after over quoting was dampened by media attention of last year or two, agents have realised the chances/consequences of being caught are low/nothing much ... or was there a REIV excec who didnt support over quoting that has recently left REIV ...
 
So does the underquoting happen from the upper end of the quoted range

ie if price is 730-800k range then do we add 15 percent to the 800k? So price should be roughly 920k?

Crazy that a quote can contain the number 730 and then be wanting to sell for 920.
 
So does the underquoting happen from the upper end of the quoted range

ie if price is 730-800k range then do we add 15 percent to the 800k? So price should be roughly 920k?

Crazy that a quote can contain the number 730 and then be wanting to sell for 920.

When it is a quoted range it is often out by that much on the high side, saw a unit quoted as $350-$400k sell on the weekend in Nunawading, it got $492k. That is a 23%-40% underquote. A similar unit not far away (Mitcham) got the exact same price 2 weeks earlier, 492k. If I remember the quote on that was $410+. I'm sure if another similar one came onto the market again it would probably be another silly quote like $350-400k. These agents are just doing what they like.

http://www.barryplant.com.au/blackb...C_3132&propertyIDList=1302612,1283811,1280041

http://www.realestateview.com.au/Real-Estate/Property-Details-buy-residential-1580449_S.html
 
scaring the bunnies - an agents take on under quoting

On the whole agents dont seem to think buyers know what theyre doing ... funny about that.

One told me they know how emotional a home purchase is and they bank on many people either getting sucked along by the purchasing process and paying more than they want/should do or, alternatively not having researched well enough, optimistically thinking they can get more for their money than they really can ... and being won over later to a bigger spend when they see that the home of their dreams costs more than they had planned for.

Hence an under quote guarantees a bigger pool of buyers. Meaning the agents get in the buyers who know their stuff (and factor in under quoting) plus the bunnies who dont. A realistic price would scare the bunnies who make up the numbers.
 
This is standard sales stuff. Nothing new there. We also need to be careful suggestion that buyers are lemmings. Remember that the market has supposedly been in a bubble for 10 years now so lots of these lemmings have made millions.

A house is worth what someone is willing to pay...
 
This place tried to private sale for $1.3m around 1 month ago (so basically his reserve). Didn't quite get it through a silly private campaign (not even on internet, just signage outside the house). He rejected an offer at 1.15m during the private sale campaign.

So now this cheapskate (who obviously didnt' want to pay massive agent fees, hence a weak campaign) has taken it to auction, with an advertised prie of 950k-1.05m. That's underquoting for you. Sometimes I feel like reporting that agent because he's so arrogant every time I see him.
 
executors auction's

Hi all, just wondering if anyone start seeing executors auction happening around their suburbs ?

i am start seeing a couple of those recently.

http://www.domain.com.au/Property/For-Sale/Townhouse/VIC/Mount-Waverley/?adid=2008313323&eb=102760

how is everyone observation so far ?

Cheers


When it is a quoted range it is often out by that much on the high side, saw a unit quoted as $350-$400k sell on the weekend in Nunawading, it got $492k. That is a 23%-40% underquote. A similar unit not far away (Mitcham) got the exact same price 2 weeks earlier, 492k. If I remember the quote on that was $410+. I'm sure if another similar one came onto the market again it would probably be another silly quote like $350-400k. These agents are just doing what they like.

http://www.barryplant.com.au/blackb...C_3132&propertyIDList=1302612,1283811,1280041

http://www.realestateview.com.au/Real-Estate/Property-Details-buy-residential-1580449_S.html
 
Boronia and Bundoora 2br units going for 400-450k.

Scary that blue collar suburb 2br units prices have caught up with the medium price for a house only 4 years ago in mebourne.

4 years ago 400k would have bought you a 3 br large house in East Doncaster. Now worth 650-750.
 
ripple effect of property increases

I agree with the earlier poster about the ripple effect, as certain suburbs that have high appeal for foreign buyers increase values from $1.5M to $2M+. Local buyers that would have purchased in that price range now have to compete in a different suburb, forcing the prices up from $1M to $1.5M.

The secret is to spot the wave as it moves outward and get in just ahead of it. Its a pity Australia has such crappy anti-property taxes that make it hard to effectively capitalise on such opportunities.

If Sydney is any guide, the potential for much higher prices is certainly there. In Sydney you can't buy land within 40km of CBD for less than $300k. In Melbourne it is available for < $150k, 20km from CBD. That is why I purchased 2 IPs in Melbourne, rather than Sydney where I live.
 
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