How are the predictions made at the beginning of 2014 tracking?
Forecasters often back off from their previous predictions, but there's not really too much point in that.
The very concept of accurately forecasting dwelling prices is flawed, since it is not possible to anticipate future events that impact the economy.
In the absence of much interesting local news, I'll take a look at how Aussie property prices are tracking against our 2014 forecasts, by benchmarking against RP Data's Daily Home Value Index for the year-to-date.
Below is what we came up with for 2014. It may also be worth reading here the rationale behind our predictions, in particular why we came in lower than most, if not all, other forecasters.
2014 forecasts
- Hobart -1 per cent to 2 per cent
- Canberra -1 per cent to -4 per cent
- Perth 0 per cent to 3 per cent
- Adelaide 0 per cent to 3 per cent
- Brisbane 2 per cent to 5 per cent
- Melbourne 2 per cent to 5 per cent
- Sydney 6 per cent to 9 per cent
