More Predictions 2014

More predictions, I think we already have an idea, but will post anyway as got this via email today:

There are only a few times in the property cycle where the conditions are ripe for greater activity. Now is one of those times. Property prices change due to a host of factors, but consumer and business confidence are two critical factors that help determine the direction of prices. And confidence has been on the increase.

While we have seen strong increases in the Sydney market, I believe there is still plenty of petrol left in the tank for the road ahead. I am not expecting double digit increases but a more sustainable growth rate of around 7% over 2014. The other bright spot on the radar is Brisbane which is expected to perform strongly this year. This will be driven by strong investor demand and many upgraders seeking a better home. I expect to see a resurgence of new listings in late January/ early Feb as those vendors sitting on the sidelines see the momentum that has built up in the market and decide to take advantage of the good conditions.

Lower interest rates have really been a strong driver of the property market and we have seen significant increases in borrowing for both investor and owner occupiers. I expect rates will remain fairly subdued in 2014 with a possible slight increase toward the end of the year. Some fixed rates are still around the 5% mark making it a very attractive rate.

The property market has shown strong recovery during the past year (2013) and each capital city has seen some level of growth. Across the combined capital cities, home values increased by about 10% per cent over the 2013 calendar year. According to RP Data, this was the fastest annual rate of value growth since August 2010, and the largest calendar year increase in values since 2009 when home values were up by 13.7%.

The capital cities driving growth were Sydney (14.5%), Perth (9.9%) and Melbourne (8.5%). Brisbane (5.1%) was the only other capital city to achieve growth in excess of 5% with each of the remaining capital cities recording annual growth of 3.5% of less.
 
When the BS Gubbmint figures on jobless get serious and start including those who are not participating, those who are on part-time who were on full-time...

What will happen is the whole thing will grind to a halt by stealth.

By this I mean that eventually the experts are going to say; "Hey; what happened to all the workers?" When they see that no one is out there spending on stuff like they thought everyone was.

Pretty hard to keep on pumping up property prices if everyone is broke, or can't qualify for finance due to their Fin Statements.

Some here live in a fishbowl and only see a small cross section of society...the one they wander around in, and if you are a six figure plus professional; you prolly won't have much of a clue, unless you are dealing with the Mr. & Mrs. Thongs of the place who make up the majority of the population.

In my current profession we deal with suppliers of all sectors of automotive across Vic and interstate, and I can tell ya's - things are still not that flash out there in the wider business world, based on what they tell me on a weekly basis - and I'm not talking about the pissy little workshops like mine - I'm talking about rather large operations.

A few folk here go; "Oh; but the joint I go to looks really busy, and the bloke who owns it told me they were"...

Of course they are going to say that no matter what, and any place can look busy at times, but still be struggling to make a dollar.

I can't see much more of this supposed boom into 2014 unless a lot changes, and since the Election nothing really has, other than a bit of pos sentiment, but that only goes so far.
 
In my current profession we deal with suppliers of all sectors of automotive across Vic and interstate, and I can tell ya's - things are still not that flash out there in the wider business world, based on what they tell me on a weekly basis - and I'm not talking about the pissy little workshops like mine - I'm talking about rather large operations.

Yep. My investment partner works with small to medium businesses in Perth. All through the mining boom, some businesses have struggled. Some have closed down and some have limped along but never really done that well. It's not a boom for everyone.
 
Yep. My investment partner works with small to medium businesses in Perth. All through the mining boom, some businesses have struggled. Some have closed down and some have limped along but never really done that well. It's not a boom for everyone.

Problem with the mining boom in Perth is it is hard to employ good workers because they can get so much more in the mines.
 
Lower interest rates have really been a strong driver of the property market and we have seen significant increases in borrowing for both investor and owner occupiers. I expect rates will remain fairly subdued in 2014 with a possible slight increase toward the end of the year. Some fixed rates are still around the 5% mark making it a very attractive rate. [/B]

I agree and predict .25 possibly .50 increase by the end of the year.

In saying that NAB/Homeside decreased their 3 & 4 year fixed rates by .05% to 5.14% and 5.44% respectively this week.
 
The low AUD is driving demand in prime high end market. It has gone nuts. Some properties must be going up like a million buck every few months. If only bought more in 2012.
 
The low AUD is driving demand in prime high end market. It has gone nuts. Some properties must be going up like a million buck every few months. If only bought more in 2012.

The faster and higher they climb....the harder they fall :(
This has a name...B U B B L E
 
The low AUD is driving demand in prime high end market. It has gone nuts. Some properties must be going up like a million buck every few months. If only bought more in 2012.

Really? The high end market in Perth is pretty stagnant. I know of a house owned by a mining exec, sold for 30% discount from what he paid for it about 3 years ago.
 
Really? The high end market in Perth is pretty stagnant. I know of a house owned by a mining exec, sold for 30% discount from what he paid for it about 3 years ago.

You are right, high end in Perth has seen no growth, gone backwards, a good time to buy a bargain.
 
You are right, high end in Perth has seen no growth, gone backwards, a good time to buy a bargain.

There are a few bargains around, if you have an appetite for it. There's a few mansions on the canals in mandurah, priced at about 50% discount to what the owners paid at the peak of the gfc. Not sure if there is a rental market for them though...
 
I would not be buying high end stuff in Mandurah I too think high risk.

Blue chip properties over $1.5M+ got seriously hammered inner city areas, I western suburbs etc, for anyone looking at upgrading or whatever I know there are bargains to be had. Gone are the days when these properties in the best streets would not even hit the market, now they just can not sell them.

My g/friend completed a major renovation/extension in Mt Lawley, sold it perhaps 5 years ago now for $3.05M, the new owners pumped more money into it. Went back on the market perhaps 2-3 years later, no buyers, finally sold I believe for around mid $2.6M. Quite a few properties similar scenario, they are not selling.
 
I think as more baby boomers move into retirement, there will be more of those high end properties coming onto the market. With salary growth suppressing, demand from the upcoming younger generation won't keep up with the supply.

Another exec I know had his property on the market for 5.5m. He had to move overseas. Ended up selling for about 3.5m.
 
I think as more baby boomers move into retirement, there will be more of those high end properties coming onto the market. With salary growth suppressing, demand from the upcoming younger generation won't keep up with the supply.

Another exec I know had his property on the market for 5.5m. He had to move overseas. Ended up selling for about 3.5m.

That is a serious drop :eek:
 
Really? The high end market in Perth is pretty stagnant. I know of a house owned by a mining exec, sold for 30% discount from what he paid for it about 3 years ago.

There is so much money from China, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia for certain things - I can't even begin to explain. There is no land available. They just get snapped up.

Everyone from top 50 rich list in each of these countries, Beijing/KL/Jakarta Governments, province-backed enterprises, other multi billionaires can't get enough of this stuff. Few days ago, someone came, looked at the site for 5 minutes and threw down $30m. He said "so cheap, just buy it".
 
So I take it that...

If it falls, it's a crashing market and you should avoid it

If it rises, it's a bubble and you should avoid it

It's a tough game this property investing. Perhaps we should just all give up and become hippies and live off the land.

Got to love the nay sayers. Good site for them is the Australian property forum. Wholy Dooly, they are scary over there.
 
That is a serious drop :eek:

It was on the market for a while... With steady decreases over 18 months. From what I understand, the buyer threw in a low ball offer, and was surprised when it was accepted.

The big drop was only a small dent in comparison to his pay package though!
 
So I take it that...

If it falls, it's a crashing market and you should avoid it

If it rises, it's a bubble and you should avoid it


Hi DB

Sounds about right :cool:

Personally I think this " bubble " has only just started inflating , let alone lifting off the ground. I love it how some people always find a negative way to look at things ...

Cliff
 
Personally I think this " bubble " has only just started inflating , let alone lifting off the ground. I love it how some people always find a negative way to look at things ...

Cliff
Agree; a bubble is not something to be feared really - unless you are relying solely on CG in the short term for the investment to work - such as flippers.

Of course; noone likes to admit that they bought at the top of the market either...
 
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