SNAP! My obs exactly.
More Predictions 2014
- Thread starter MTR
- Start date
SNAP! My obs exactly.
I'm " happy " to admit that we bought our first PPOR at the peak of the market in 89 .
They say you learn more from your mistakes than by what you get right .
I learnt the importance of timing from that mistake , hence the " apprentice timing lord " tag .
Cliff
Tell us more SC. Did your PPOR go underwater for a few years? When did it start to rise again? This was in Sydney right?
I admit I brought at the top of the cycle too, well not quite, was able to extract a little equity and buy my second property just before the drop happened. That first buy I was young (younger ish), dumb, read a couple of magazines that said the suburb was about to boom when little did I know it had been booming for ages. But like sea change said you learn more from your mistakes and that's exactly right. Obviously research is crucial, I didn't find that out until 1 property in and found this forum. Second property has performed very well, definitely won't be making the mistakes I made with the first purchase again. Onwards and upwards.
Assuming you are still in the same PPoR, Cliff - have you found that time has healed that wound and it is worth way more than what you paid for it?
I think I know the answer to that!
In our case, we have never tried to time any purchase - they just occured because we we ready and able to.
So, based on timing the market - we have broken the rule every time, and managed to do ok by pure accident.
We have since sold all but one IP, and all previous PPoR's of course, and all were sold when required; not at the high point of the market - but with all of them they went up in value over the time we owned them...some extremely well, some not a lot.
Not as much as possibly what they might have had we waited for the right point in the market, but as it turns out it hasn't been that big a disaster.
For long term buy and holders; time in the market is the key.
Someone young can simply start buying, hold and enjoy some growth - which makes property investing a relatively easy thing to succeed at without much work and input.
For older folks, or someone only interested in fast turnover and growth; lots more work and study, and of course; timing.
I dunno, lets assume fast fwd to Jan 2015, and west sydney basically grew/boomed through all of 2014,
id be more comfortable not buying when the market is hot, and possibly at its peak, when every mum and investor and amateur inevstor is feeling pretty good about them selves because all they see is "BOOM BOOM BOOM" in the media, following the herd mentality
yes time heals all wounds but if I bought in 2015 and it dropped 5 % or stayed the same until 2022, i wouldnt be saying, "oh its not too bad, my $300k property in 2015 is now worth $320k in 2022!"
that to me is a disaster, id much rather put it somewhere else or change my strategy not to buy at the peak,
ie id rather be buying at 4pm to 7pm on the investment clock instead of 11pm-12am
id be more comfortable not buying when the market is hot, and possibly at its peak, when every mum and investor and amateur inevstor is feeling pretty good about them selves because all they see is "BOOM BOOM BOOM" in the media, following the herd mentality
yes time heals all wounds but if I bought in 2015 and it dropped 5 % or stayed the same until 2022, i wouldnt be saying, "oh its not too bad, my $300k property in 2015 is now worth $320k in 2022!"
that to me is a disaster, id much rather put it somewhere else or change my strategy not to buy at the peak,
ie id rather be buying at 4pm to 7pm on the investment clock instead of 11pm-12am
With hindsight we can all be more expert on when to buy and when not, and where not to, etc.
My point is that despite being totally hopeless at this caper, doing basically everything wrong, we kept on going, and it was the best strategy in terms of overall cap growth.
Had I sat around waiting for every light down the road to turn green, the status quo would have been way less successful, I can guarantee you.
To sit on the sidelines doing nothing, waiting for the right time, might end up being a worse mistake than doing something.....
Imagine the possibilities for folks here on this site who are not as stupid as I am, and have/are gathering the knowledge that I didn't have - they should be able to go out in almost any part of the property clock and make some money from the game in the short to medium term....as long as they are playing.
When we bought our PPoR in Red Hill, folks were saying "what are you doing?" Had I had any knowledge back then, we would have kept the previous PPoR and rented it out, and really made a killing.
When we bought 2 IP's in Kalgoorlie in one month, folks said "what are you doing?"
There are a couple of other donkey-brain purchases we have made that went ok, but you get the idea about being in the game.
My point is that despite being totally hopeless at this caper, doing basically everything wrong, we kept on going, and it was the best strategy in terms of overall cap growth.
Had I sat around waiting for every light down the road to turn green, the status quo would have been way less successful, I can guarantee you.
To sit on the sidelines doing nothing, waiting for the right time, might end up being a worse mistake than doing something.....
Imagine the possibilities for folks here on this site who are not as stupid as I am, and have/are gathering the knowledge that I didn't have - they should be able to go out in almost any part of the property clock and make some money from the game in the short to medium term....as long as they are playing.
When we bought our PPoR in Red Hill, folks were saying "what are you doing?" Had I had any knowledge back then, we would have kept the previous PPoR and rented it out, and really made a killing.
When we bought 2 IP's in Kalgoorlie in one month, folks said "what are you doing?"
There are a couple of other donkey-brain purchases we have made that went ok, but you get the idea about being in the game.
ok fair enough, but would you follow the herd and buy in west sydney in Jan 2014?!?!!?
its not rocket science and safe to assume that the boom in the area has already occured, and 2014-2015 will be either good growth, or declining growth or even a flattening out,
so if a house is selling for $300k today for example, when just two years ago it was $220k, thats 40% growth in two years, are you going to be happy to buy now, and 8 years later its worth $320k???
surely you would have learnt that yes its true that time heals or wounds but timing t hte market to a certain extent is very powerful too????
Yes true Bayview better having one foot in the door than nothing,but a lot of people including myself have done some what others may say was stupid I have lost quite a bit of money over the years but learnt along the way and have let it make me more determined so do not knock yourself for having a go,happy Aus Day all.
Macca446
Talking about property clocks. Where do people think Perth is on the clock?
Sydney and Melbourne fundamentals remain strong over the long-term.
You can't beat a city going from 4 or 5 million people to 8 million people in 30-40 years. Simple as that.
In the medium term, there will be headwinds like always.
In the short-term, 2014 will be a good year for both cities.
The ideal strategy is to accumulate a bit more, smartly, with a view of selling/refinancing in 2015 and seeing if you can catch the South East Asian recovery in HK, Singapore, Taiwan, which is likely to occur in mid 2015, after a minimum 18 month dip starting now (ie the moment I hit post). If you want to move faster, you'd have to move into Tokyo/Osaka now, but the laws are difficult to navigate.
Unfortunately the currency has moved against most folks who aren't already holding vast amounts of US$.
You can't beat a city going from 4 or 5 million people to 8 million people in 30-40 years. Simple as that.
In the medium term, there will be headwinds like always.
In the short-term, 2014 will be a good year for both cities.
The ideal strategy is to accumulate a bit more, smartly, with a view of selling/refinancing in 2015 and seeing if you can catch the South East Asian recovery in HK, Singapore, Taiwan, which is likely to occur in mid 2015, after a minimum 18 month dip starting now (ie the moment I hit post). If you want to move faster, you'd have to move into Tokyo/Osaka now, but the laws are difficult to navigate.
Unfortunately the currency has moved against most folks who aren't already holding vast amounts of US$.
Personally; no. I never follow the herd anyway....most of the herd are not doing very well financially, and I never like to do the normal stuff that everyone feels the need to do to conform and feel accepted...maybe that's an Aquarian thing.
Western Sydney;
a) it is an area I know nothing about - other than seems to be in the news every night for another crime of some sort/shooting/stabbing/ethnic/racial drama,
b) not in a position to buy this year - hoping to not drown,
c) I have way more knowledge than 10 years or more ago, so may locate a more suitable area and timing possibly....
But folks say that/said that about "The Pines" too, yet I know one person who bought for $90k and sold for over $300k withing 10 years in "The Pines"...
All she did was buy a house to live in - from a friend who was getting divorced and wanted to sell.
She ended up selling the house and the back yard as 2 separate transactions - she had no property knowledge at all - we helped her with the whole sheebang, but had she not got into the game, she would have missed that opportunity to make money in an area that was/is supposedly a dead duck.
And it gave her some knowledge...that sale has allowed her & hubbie to build a house in Bali for under $100k, and will sell for approx $300k in the next few months.
And so on.
"She" is my SIL....formerly a dole bludging hippy, who got into the game.
But, for someone who is about to embark on the ladder, and who knows not much, and who knows the area (West Sydney) because they live there..they could probably buy an IP in a good spot that will always be in demand and easy to rent without too much effort.
I would venture to say that West Sydney will only ever go up because of the fixation of folks to want to live near a CBD...maybe a slow cap growth though.
CG and rent return might be less than other areas; but no-one has a crystal ball on that either - only educated estimates.
We can all argue that you may be able to better in other investment vehicles than property at a given time, but you can only operate with what you know.
If you only know property; then that's what you operate with...
I've lost money on various things my whole life - and am still doing it. The next venture might be a winner.
But it doesn't mean you can't have a crack and try to do something to improve yourself and your financial position.
I'd rather have a crack at doing it with property, than to make no effort at all like many, or to chuck it into shares with no knowledge or research work like so many others; operating on hot tips, or having a guess, and then whine how "I was done hard by."
You may go backwards temporarily if you have a crack, but to do nothing, or to take the easy way is usually to go backwards anyway, and with no hope of ever going forward...unless you win Tattslotto, of course.
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