Nay sayers!

From: Michael Croft


To all those that posted, about a couple of months ago, that the Canberra market had passed its use by date and peaked.

Inner South/North listings are still short on the ground with agents reporting they are "loading prices a bit". Even with the "loading" they are still selling fast at private treaty, and auction clearance rates are still high at over 70%.

The concentric ring theory is alive and well in Canberra, so the outer suburbs have still a way to go. Three bedroom boxes in Kaleen which were $160k 12 months ago are now in the $220 - 230k range. Same sort of numbers for Rivett. These boxes would have fetched $190k mid winter.

Anecdotally, a place down the street from me just sold for $435k. It's half a duplex on a busy corner and came back onto the market only two weeks ago. It failed to sell 8 weeks ago at $410k. The same place sold new for $310k 18 months ago.

The block next door to me (Ainslie) also sold this week for $365k. It's a demolition job with $20k worth of earth works and house removal before they can even start.

So my prediction of another 10% by the end of the year is on track! It actually shows that I was conservative back then, as my crystal ball didn't predict the WTC and bio-terrorism.

Happy investing, Michael Croft
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Reply: 1
From: Paul Hendriks

Hi Michael

Interesting information, that seems to be quite a hike in prices for Canberra. But you have the facts & live in the action so I presume you should know.

Do you know anything about the new developments on Lake Burly Griffin. I read some info in SMH today about sales OTP. Would this area be good, as water always seems to be great for capital growth, maybe this would be good for Trades?

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Reply: 1.1
From: Michael Croft

Hi Paul,

There is a big development going on called "Kingston foreshores". Haven't seen the SMH article but that's the only one with water views on Burley Griffin that I know of.

Hmmmm .... OTP, Canberra and water views in the same line - don't see that every day. Was it an ad in the SMH with advertorial BTW? Will they be a good investment is probably your question. Knowing who the developers are and their MO I will give it a heavily qualified yes.

In fact the only way anyone makes money on their developments is to get in at the pre release stage OTP and sell just after completion. Use deposit bonds etc. It's not a buy and hold strategy unless you are talking 20 years plus. We are talking hundreds of units here all in one nice tight spot!

Will I be doing it? Hell no, I simply don't trust them and trust is important to me.

Now if you want to be in a boutique townhouse development of 6 only and walking distance to the CBD, email me ;^)

Regards, Michael Croft
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