New investor... a time to be cautious?

[lizzie]

Many people would have said "no way". We paid $460K, spend $17K on reno and its value now would probably be $600K, possibly $650K.

very true - i know when we were looking earlier this year at buying, i was pointing out to hubby recent sales, and telling him what they sold for. his conservative reaction was "that house isn't worth that much!"

hate to tell you hubby - but it sold for that much, therefore is is worth that much because that is what the market dictates it is worth."

a renovated house down the road from the one we ended up buying has just gone on the market for "double" what we paid for ours 8 months ago. granted their house is is larger, but we have more land. hope they get close to asking as we are talking many 100's of thousands.

personally - if i had the money i'd be buying in prime locations right now. read the construction boom thread in property economics section.

 

[willair]

Yeah, don't worry... you're not the first sceptic, but I don't need to prove anything to anyone. I know what kind of ROI and money I make and that's the only thing that matters to me being the bottom line. I have no doubt if I was to show people my records, most people and fund managers in particular would be green with envy. It is an incredibly powerful system when you consider the "churn" effect (essentially like leverage) - 100k liquid cash can be churned over for $4-500k bet and $100k clear profit easily.

I for one would be interested to know the system,so you start of with 100k,then you lever on lever into 500k,then some how in between you make 100k is that after the broker-ATO,cost??//willair..

 

[forumite]

if not for the government's massive stimulus package we would be in recession, albeit not as severe as most other countries. It will be interesting to see what happens when the stimulus effect starts to wear off in the next 6-18 months, particularly if the rest of the world's economy does not improve significantly in that time or actually worsens which is quite possible.

Asia is in a real estate boom at the moment. Not sure where it is heading.

http://business.asiaone.com/Business/My+Money/Property/Story/A1Story20091217-186391.html

 

[josko]

Asia is in a real estate boom at the moment. Not sure where it is heading.

http://business.asiaone.com/Business/My+Money/Property/Story/A1Story20091217-186391.html

It's heading South.

Prop, I like your straight forward style. I need to take a leaf from your book.

Regards JO

 

[ashleyb]

Thanks again for your opinions, all very useful!

I've just been looking at some data for the median price in various Sydney suburbs over the last 10 years. It's actually hard to find a suburb in which the median price has doubled during that time.

Have most properties in Sydney not actually doubled in value in the last 10 years? I would find that surprising, even though the market has tracked sideways for 5 years or so. Or is there some reason the median figure understates the actual growth that most properties experienced (because the median house varies from year to year, so could be affected by new building etc)?

Also, where's the best place to get historical data on house/unit prices in Sydney (on a suburb by suburb basis)? I'm guessing most of it isn't freely available. So far I've only been able to track down some graphs going back 10 years. I'm interested in seeing how the cycle has played out previously and how often investors have had to wait over 10 years for their property to double in value.

 

[ashleyb]

ps. Not a gambler myself, but I actually made around $10k worth of bets a couple of years ago -- and came out nicely ahead. The trick was arbitrage betting... ie. betting both for and against a result with different betting agencies. There is a very small possibility of things going wrong (eg. the odds change before you can lay both bets, or one bookmaker won't accept one of the bets, or you just make a mistake with your calculations) but other than that you are guaranteed to win. That's the kind of betting I like the most It does take quite a lot of work to scout out the opportunities though, and you can't really lay massive bets. But a 5% profit overnight is not to be sniffed at, especially if you reinvest the winnings in new bets. Quite a few people doing it these days though and I decided it probably wasn't worth the effort in the end. Good fun though. Heads I win, tails you lose...

 

[ashleyb]

Hmmm. Just been doing some more reading and it seems that house prices have fallen short doubling in value over the past decade. However, they are not far off. If you compare mid 98 to mid 2008 then they went up by 100%. Units don't seem to have done quite as well though.

Any suggestions on where I can find more data or charts of house and unit prices for the last 30 years or so? I would have thought the data might be publically available but haven't turned up much in my searches to date.

 

[Bon]

I for one would be interested to know the system,so you start of with 100k,then you lever on lever into 500k,then some how in between you make 100k is that after the broker-ATO,cost??//willair..

I hit a high strike rate of 80%+. Betting 10-15% of a 100k bankroll over 40+ fights in the course of a year. 40 fights * 10k a bet = 400k churned. 40 fights * 12.5k a bet = $500k churned. ROI will likely be anywhere from 15-30+% tax free.

 

[nomadic]

I hit a high strike rate of 80%+. Betting 10-15% of a 100k bankroll over 40+ fights in the course of a year. 40 fights * 10k a bet = 400k churned. 40 fights * 12.5k a bet = $500k churned. ROI will likely be anywhere from 15-30+% tax free.

I think I'm going to put a bet on Pacman to beat Mayweather. Current odds have the unbeaten Mayweather as a -295 favorite and Pacquiao as the underdog at +230. This means that a $295 bet on Mayweather would earn a $100 while a $100 gamble on Pacquiao would generate $230. Bon, are you still around or has another one bit the dust? What are your thoughts? Anyone else bet on fights?

http://www.vegasinsider.com/boxing/odds/futures/