New World Order

[Freckle]

Well my personal opinion is that its not very relevant to property investors. If cost of living goes up, then you buy IP according to the needs of the demographic your buying into. If you buy in a more affluent demographic then your purchase will vary accordingly.

During the last 100 years there have always been "major" events every month, year, decade etc etc... and regardless the savvy property investors still manage to do reasonably well regardless.

Selective reasoning and generalisations that are mostly wrong. Have a look around the world for examples. Plenty of them. When things go wrong the majority take a bath.

The only ones that capitalise are those with little or no gearing and who have sufficient capital (and supportive income) remaining after a correction to leverage up again and recoup. They tend to be a very small minority; less than 5%.

My observations indicate the smart PI's have been strengthening balance sheets for the last 5 years in anticipation of a correction. They're in the main the big guys.

 

[Ausprop]

hopefully all PIs have been strengthening their balance sheet, not sure why you wouldn't?

 

[LeoT]

Selective reasoning and generalisations that are mostly wrong. Have a look around the world for examples. Plenty of them. When things go wrong the majority take a bath.

Freckle to a large degree I agree with you that the majority 'take a bath', and that's simply because the majority of 'property investors' don't really know what they doing.


The only ones that capitalise are those with little or no gearing and who have sufficient capital (and supportive income) remaining after a correction to leverage up again and recoup. They tend to be a very small minority; less than 5%.

Absolute nonsense, imo of course.



My observations indicate the smart PI's have been strengthening balance sheets for the last 5 years in anticipation of a correction. They're in the main the big guys.

Like the other poster said, all smart PI's would be strengthening their balance sheet. Corrections are not a significant issue if you know how to PROPERLY build a portfolio. Again, most don't, because they don't take the time to learn.


My point remains that I believe the macro stuff is not important to building a property portfolio that is sustainable. Major events have always happened throughout history and that hasn't stopped many, many ppl from continuing to build wealth. the 'secret' is to understand how to go about it, from the foundation upwards, in a methodical and risk-controlled way,

For chirst sake, most 'property investors' don't even know what a buffer or contingency' fund is all about... no wonder they get in trouble at times. Shouldn't be a surprise at all. Its insane, some PI's are buying OTP units high rise complex, 10k strata in a boom market with thousands of units coming on the market in the same area.........how can they NOT get wiped out during a correction...duh

 

[Kenster]

There are a few questions that I wonder. Hope you can help:

What is the production life of a fracking well?

Will it outlast traditional oil wells, in terms of production output?

If fracking oil and CSG can become a serious source of threat to black oil, what was in Buffett's thinking when he continued purchasing Exxon Mobil late last year?

Thanks.

 

[Deltaberry]

If I were to guess:

The new world order should see the US maintain its dominance, although it'll have to cede Asia increasingly to a rising China, hostile Russia and unreliable Indonesia and India. Plenty of energy to back them too on this thread's topic.

The pecking order will be followed by China - second strongest economically and militarily even today, a country which has ambitions to dominate the next two centuries as the US did as most people know. Plenty of energy to back them too on this thread's topic.

Third should see Russia with its arsenal of weapons, access to gas and uranium and significant land mass. It'll also benefit from the rise of China. Plenty of energy to back them too on this thread's topic.

At fourth we'll see a host of new emerging nations with strong population do what China did 10 years ago - become a manufacturing hub and food bowl, and make lots of money and improve standards of living significantly. These should include Indonesia, Brazil and India as front runners.

Fifth will be the remnants of the old world (these will compete with No #4) and that should simply be Germany and Japan, the two leaders of the old world economically and militarily in Europe and Asia respectively. Competing with them will be the new world's emerging low cost, high tech and low employment countries such as South Korea and Turkey (former Ottoman Empire, don't forget).

I think the biggest losers will be western Europe in the next century. In particular, we will see Italy/France/Spain head towards the dark ages, at least 2 generations lost, and an off chance the UK slips out of top 10 too within our life times. Not surprising, each of these countries had their turn to rule the world within the last 5 centuries (except maybe Italy), and if anyone's been there recently you'll guess they are probably at least 20 years away from getting out of a mess where half the people under 35 are not employed and have zero hope of finding employment. Much worse than Japan for all practical intents and purposes. Despite the mounting debt in Japan, at least the country is high-tech, efficient and people have jobs, just not stable ones. You can't even get a casual job in Paris/Barcelona these days.

 

[Lord Shanghai]

Russia with its arsenal of weapons, access to gas and uranium and significant land mass. .

Here is something I don't understand. Why is Russia importing Uranium from Australia when (one would think) they have abundant reserves themselves?

 

[The Falcon]

Agree on USA and China, and Southern Europe, though I have question marks over Russia in coming decades. 70% of Russia's exports are Oil and Gas and when the US east coast LNG export terminals come on line in coming years they can kiss the European market good bye....so Russia will really need China. At the moment it's spending big on defence but that vault isnt secure.

 

[Deltaberry]

Russia's a tough one to predict. But don't forget it'll a major benefactor from the rise of China and India.

Re uranium, not too sure. Russia is one of the largest uranium countries in the world.

 

[Freckle]

Here is something I don't understand. Why is Russia importing Uranium from Australia when (one would think) they have abundant reserves themselves?

Russia only has 9% of world reserves while AU has 31%. They imported one shipment in 2012 but none since. Abbots blacklisted Russia anyway.

Russia's boosting (tripling) production as it does deals with Iran China Japan etc.

 

[Ausprop]

a country as weak and vulnerable as this needs nukes... a sitting duck

 

[The Falcon]

Ha. I think we are a long way from that, though 4-6 x Ohio or Vanguard Class SSBNs packing Trident II's would do the job from a deterrence stand point.

Nuclear proliferation is a real concern though, as soon as Iran gets very close to a confirmed capability, its going to be very hard to stop the Saudis. Unfortunately, this is a Genie who can never be put back in the bottle.

 

[Jaggannath]

The day they start drilling down there and you know we're nearing the end.

Ah, something I can agree with you unequivocally on.