No More "Big Australia" (?)

[Graemsay]

The problem that I have with immigration as a solution to the retirement crisis is that it's a kind of Ponzi scheme. The population has to keep on growing to support retirees, but also support retired immigrants.

At some point the maximum possible population for a country will be reached, and then issues of a shrinking, ageing workforce supporting a growing army of pensioners will reassert itself.

I believe that coming up with a bundle of measures that can go some way towards resolving the issue makes more sense as a long term fix. Raising the pension age strikes me as a sensible first step.

 

[Aaron Sice]

ponzi indeed.

just don't be left holding the bag (ie being a taxpayer).

did i just say that out loud? silly me.

 

[random]

This is a pretty poor reason to increase our population IMO, I mean it's not really sustainable is it...if we have to double our population by 2050 to pay the pension for the current population, will we have to double it again by 2100 to support pensions for the intake between now and then? There are surely better ways to move towards self sustaining retirement, even if it means dramatically increasing compulsory super allocations.

Yeah I agree on the most part , it is a ridiculous reason to push a population, it's just a bandage. Besides they'd find they wouldn't be able to keep up with other aspects of an unnaturally pushed larger population anyway and just end up chasing their tails even more .
Make the country more family friendly, more study friendly and just let it grow at it's own pace I reckon. We'd have lots of kids and lots of skills to carry us on from there. There's no reason at all why a young roomy country like Australia should be growing old accept very bad management and direction. Like 500k houses for example and the costs of living, very expensive study ,.
They drive our businesses offshore , our best minds os and they virtually do the same thing for family.
Couples both have to work now and for a lot longer , they have to put off having kids and when they do they can't have as many or even stay at home and raise them the way they should be able to, pretty simple stuff !

Cheers

 

[topcropper]

The problem that I have with immigration as a solution to the retirement crisis is that it's a kind of Ponzi scheme. The population has to keep on growing to support retirees, but also support retired immigrants.

At some point the maximum possible population for a country will be reached, and then issues of a shrinking, ageing workforce supporting a growing army of pensioners will reassert itself.

I believe that coming up with a bundle of measures that can go some way towards resolving the issue makes more sense as a long term fix. Raising the pension age strikes me as a sensible first step.

Nice post Graemsay. Is it a ponzi scheme, or a pyramid scheme? More a pyramid scheme which requires ever more people coming in at the bottom to hold it up.

I also agree about the pension and retirement age. It is inevitable that it has to increase, and it will happen naturally. As people are living longer, they are also fitter and healthier for their ages. My grandmother is 95 and looks like she will see 100 easily. The second best tennis player in my local comp in A grade is 70. There are numerous players still playing at 65 plus who are competitive and beat me anyway.

The 65 of years ago is todays 85.


See ya's.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

As people are living longer, they are also fitter and healthier for their ages. My grandmother is 95 and looks like she will see 100 easily. The second best tennis player in my local comp in A grade is 70. There are numerous players still playing at 65 plus who are competitive and beat me anyway.

The 65 of years ago is todays 85.


See ya's.

Healthier older people might be a temporary statistical spike TC.

Diet and lifestyle has deteriorated profoundly in the last 25 years for the majority of the population.

 

[topcropper]

Healthier older people might be a temporary statistical spike TC.

Diet and lifestyle has deteriorated profoundly in the last 25 years for the majority of the population.

I dunno about that Winston.

The average person is getting bigger, and I'm 20 kilos more than I should be. But we are getting bigger all over. I remember 5 years ago at the local rugby match, they had the legendary 1965 team in for a 40 year reunion after winning the premiership way back then. They had the playing weights of the team from 65. They were tiny men 45 years ago. The props and second rowers were 85 kilos, the rest of the forwards were 75 kilos and the backs were 65 kilos. The current local team had backs at 80 kilos and forwards at 100. One fella was 120 kilos, 6 foot 6" and fit as a buck rat. A 6 foot high person 45 years ago was tall, now it's normal.

Hardly anyone smokes now. Hardly any passive smoking as smokers banned from pubs etc. The road toll is way lower. Less people drink and drive. There is low cholesterol food, high omega food, mono-oleic vegetable oil, pills to drop blood pressure, pills to make blood cholesterol better. People know that the sun is bad, asbestos is bad.

To counter that, young people drink more alcohol. I drink too much as well, but at 18, kids are drinking way more than me and my mates did when we were 18. I think everyones greater wealth helps. More money to spend.

But I don't think things are that bad that lifespans will start to drop. Maybe they will platue out.



What if the miracle cancer cure comes out tomorrow? Or a pill to make people lose weight or not feel hungry? Or a pill comes out that makes people's bodies reject cholesterol completely? Lifespans might jump another 10 years in one go?


See ya's.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

The rates of obesity, diabetes 1 and 2, and cardiac arrhythmias in the sub 50 population suggest otherwise TC. Australia's obesity trend is around the same as the US's. Check the animated time line of the top chart here to get an idea of the epidemic.

Turning unhealthy lifestyle trends around is not something a government can do easily, or cheaply, in a democracy. Personal discipline and will power cannot be bought.

 

[Graemsay]

I'm currently in Melbourne on a holiday / recce, and I was struck by the fact that most of the locals look slimmer and fitter than the British do. There seems to be far more of a sporting and exercise culture than there is in the UK or US, and that'll go some way towards keeping obesity in check.

I'd agree with Topcropper about heights. I'm 6'2" to 6'3", which generally makes me the tallest person in a room back home, but the average here seems a bit more than the UK. Though heights in Scandinavia have topped out in the last few decades, so we probably won't see the next generation being even bigger.

That said, it's not like the Netherlands where I often feel quite short...

Winston, China has a growing obesity problem. I know this because a Chinese friend of mine has been asking me to proof read her university essays on the subject.

Seems like they're adopting a more Western diet and lifestyle, with the concomitant problems. On top of that, Asians tend to have a smaller frame, so get obesity related health problems at a lower BMI, and are also more susceptible to diabetes.

 

[WinstonWolfe]

Graem, be careful you are comparing spades with spades.
If you are forming your Melbourne 'local' impressions on the cbd and inner ring, you are not getting a random sample of the Australian population.

And yes, China has a growing a obesity problem, as do most Pacific Islands, Thailand, India, and Mexico. It isn't so much the fault of Western fast food choices, but not having the Western education and restraint that accompanies those choices. Just as in the West, the most ignorant and least restrained suffer.

I'm currently in Melbourne on a holiday / recce, and I was struck by the fact that most of the locals look slimmer and fitter than the British do. There seems to be far more of a sporting and exercise culture than there is in the UK or US, and that'll go some way towards keeping obesity in check.

I'd agree with Topcropper about heights. I'm 6'2" to 6'3", which generally makes me the tallest person in a room back home, but the average here seems a bit more than the UK. Though heights in Scandinavia have topped out in the last few decades, so we probably won't see the next generation being even bigger.

That said, it's not like the Netherlands where I often feel quite short...

Winston, China has a growing obesity problem. I know this because a Chinese friend of mine has been asking me to proof read her university essays on the subject.

Seems like they're adopting a more Western diet and lifestyle, with the concomitant problems. On top of that, Asians tend to have a smaller frame, so get obesity related health problems at a lower BMI, and are also more susceptible to diabetes.