North Parramatta now or after the FHOG?

I am currently thinking of buying my first unit in North Parramatta however I was going to wait until the beginning of next year to see if the market drops.

The info I am getting is that it will actually grow next year? Any advice?

I am eligible for the FHOG however I am not convinced that prices are not going to drop?
 
My own personal experience in the greater Parramatta area has been that asking prices for units have jumped significantly in the past 2 months, whether this has anything to do with the Sept 30th deadline I can't say. I suspect that the prices will stagnate afterwards for a bit but not fall.
 
I am currently thinking of buying my first unit in North Parramatta however I was going to wait until the beginning of next year to see if the market drops.
And if it doesn't drop and actually keeps rising, then what is your Plan B?

The info I am getting is that it will actually grow next year?
Where is this info coming from. I can give you info saying it should rise and I can also find info saying it is a bubble about to burst.

Any advice?
Yes, make up your own mind. BUT you have a 50/50 chance of being right/wrong

I am eligible for the FHOG however I am not convinced that prices are not going to drop?
So either get convinced or not. Don't do anything you are not sure of.
 
Here's my personal view on why I think prices will keep on rising:
1. FHBs are back to their 'normal' levels of approx 20% of the market and yet prices continue to rise.
2. FHBs get $3,500 less after 30 September and a further $3,500 less after 31 December. So $7,000 less in the hands of 20% of the whole market is going to do what to property prices?...Absolutely nothing in my opinion.
3. We have seen a steady increase of upgraders back in the market. Some months ago there were very few upgraders as investors were dumping stock onto the market that was subsequently purchased by FHBs. But now there are lots of upgraders, who have sold to FHBs, supporting the middle and higher end of the market.
4. Investors are making a re-entrance into the market. Additionally, recently published surveys have 3 out of 4 investors who intend to purchase, waiting for the FHO Boost to expire. When investors return to the market in greater numbers, what will that do to property prices, as they compete with each other?
5. The threat of interest rate (IR) rises seems to be having the effect of bringing forward investment purchases. Most lenders' serviceability calculations are done on present IR + 2%, “so, better to get more funds now while standard variable rates (SVRs) are at their low point”, seems to be a theme I hear coming through.
6. People who were held back by fear and uncertainty generated by media reports and interviews with people like Prof. Steve Keen, are beginning to see the folly of expecting 40% price falls. House price data from Residex shows Sydney property prices had “boom” growth of nearly 8 per cent in the past three months.
7. While-ever the share market is volatile, investors retreat to the relative safety of bricks & mortar.
8. Unemployment is not expected to get anywhere near to the levels first predicted. Gee - Australia did not even enter a 'technical recession' while the global financial markets were in meltdown.
9. Demand is still exceeding supply. New housing starts are improving but still weak as developers struggle to get access to finance. This has the effect of pushing up prices of existing stock.
10. Immigration levels are still high.

But you have to be convinced in your own mind (just am I am in mine). Having said that I have nothing to lose if I'm wrong. A lot of my IPs are cash flow +ve now and I really don't care what happens to the market. I have no control over it anyway.
 
I am currently thinking of buying my first unit in North Parramatta however I was going to wait until the beginning of next year to see if the market drops.

The info I am getting is that it will actually grow next year? Any advice?

I am eligible for the FHOG however I am not convinced that prices are not going to drop?


I would suggest that you wait (preferrably 2-3 years) and then pay the double of what you would pay now. That would teach you (the hard way):
a. that people do not buy property to get an extra $7K.
b. That people were delaying purchases since 2003 because of media vicious interest rate scaremongering. Now that they have seen it is all bulldust there is nothing really to stop them
c. That return from current 27% share of FHB to the normal 21% is never going to affect market in any way
d. That 73% of non-FHB purchsers is almost 3 times bigger than FHB. (Look up "overwhelming majority" in the dictionary)
e. that waiting for a crash amid property boom is a dumbest thing to do. In February-March 2010 when even blind Freddy will be able to see that FHOG boost removal did not matter at all - this is when real panic buying begins.

I sincerely can't wait for the removal of FHOG boost.
 
But you have to be convinced in your own mind (just am I am in mine). Having said that I have nothing to lose if I'm wrong.

Thanks for the comment Propertunity.

My only concern over these types of posts in a real estate forum is that would I be right in assuming that most people on this site would want prices to go up? I personally think that there are more contributing factors to house prices other than what figures and cycles the real estate industry and people in it can provide.
In saying this I do agree with a lot of your points and Australia appears to pushing through the predicted resource and real estate busts.
 
Real estate busts are invented by 'not haves' who lullaby themselves into believing that suddenly new houses start falling from the sky and planet Earth selectively expands in capital cities thus creating more land. Indulging in futile dreams is much easier that lifting your bum off the sofa and start doing something.

How come you "are not going to lose anything"? You already lost at least $100K listening to the retards professing housing crash - say $50K on purchase price increase since November last year when boom in Sydney West started and at least $50K on interest over the life of your loan.


Agree 100%.

Opportunity costs. + Time in market.


When I first starting in real estate in 1998 everyone was saying and especially the media that after the Olympics the housing market and the economy would bust, all those who listened to this rubbish missed out.
 
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