Dr DOOM, Nouriel Roubini is a respected economist who has been calling this crisis fairly acurately since 2006 according to this article....
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/magazine/17pessimist-t.html
....and is even more of a poster boy for the doomsayers than steve keen.
Today on his website I found this, which, when compared to the sites comment on US and UK property, sounds remarkably upbeat.
Appears to be in agreement of the chronic housing shortage and immigration keeping a floor under prices.
It is subscriber only, so Im not sure if the link will direct you to the correct page http://www.rgemonitor.com/344
Home page is here http://www.rgemonitor.com/index.php
Dave
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/17/magazine/17pessimist-t.html
....and is even more of a poster boy for the doomsayers than steve keen.
Today on his website I found this, which, when compared to the sites comment on US and UK property, sounds remarkably upbeat.
Appears to be in agreement of the chronic housing shortage and immigration keeping a floor under prices.
Australian Housing Market: Affordability Crisis Abating
Feb 5, 2009
- Australia's housing market softened in 2008 on the exit of speculators due to high credit costs, but an ongoing housing shortage will keep a floor under prices - especially as fiscal and monetary support for first homebuyers fortifies owner-occupier demand
- House prices: Australia has 2nd least affordable housing market in the world (Pauletich). House prices have yet to fully correct from the housing boom and overvaluation of 2001-04 and housing rental yields remain extremely low (AMP). Average house prices have only fallen 3.3% in the year to December 2008. If Australia avoids a deep recession, falls in house prices will be limited (ANZ). If not, prices could fall 40% if they mean-reverted, 50% if reverted to pre-bubble mean (Keen)
- Building approvals: Number of building approvals down for 13 month in a row in Dec 2008, when approvals slumped -33% y/y, lowest reading since 1980s recession. Total value of nonresidential building approvals plunged 42% y/y December
- Housing finance: The number of loans to owner-occupiers rose 1.3% in November, while the value of loans to investors fell 6.1% in November. The number of first home buyers jumped by 17.8% as Australians took advantage of the gov't fiscal stimulus package that doubled grants to first homebuyers
- Housing shortage: Australia is failing to build enough homes to satisfy rising demand. This "underbuild" helps explain why house prices have held up, despite poor affordability, and why residential rents have been rising at the fastest pace for two decades and keeping a floor under house prices (JPMorgan). 153k dwellings are being built annually, well below the 175k starts/yr required (Commonwealth)
- Origins of housing shortage: Monetary tightening, prohibitive development costs, builder caution amid tighter credit conditions is capping construction activity (ANZ). Strong demand from migrants to commodities-rich West and chronic housing shortage in East to support home prices
- Government intervention: $6.4 billion of the $42 billion stimulus package announced Feb 3 will be committed to replenishing and expanding the public and community housing stock
It is subscriber only, so Im not sure if the link will direct you to the correct page http://www.rgemonitor.com/344
Home page is here http://www.rgemonitor.com/index.php
Dave