november interest rate thread

what will be november RBA interest rate decision?

  • no change

    Votes: 51 50.0%
  • +0.25

    Votes: 39 38.2%
  • +0.5

    Votes: 7 6.9%
  • other

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • no change in november and +0.25 in december

    Votes: 5 4.9%

  • Total voters
    102
  • Poll closed .
Talking about october RBA meeting is pointless as there will be no interest rate change from RBA.
About November there is a wide view of opinion. My view is no change, same thing for december

EDIT: if you think there will be a rate rise in october and november you can vote +0.5 option
 
I voted no change.

Wearing my business owners hat as well as my investors hat for a minute, the banks have basically closed shop.

They have very limited funds to lend apparently, so there are less qualifiers both for residential and business borrowers, and let's not forget the scale back on the FHOG.

The criteria is very tough, and not improving in the near future for the masses to get loans, and I've been watching businesses still for sale for easily over a year still not sold.

Retail figures aren't much to write home about from all reports either. A few f-knuckles still out there spending like there's no tomorrow.

So, looking at the overall economy view, I'd say the RBA doesn't want to stifle any growth and confidence that may build up.

But, this doesn't mean the Banks won't raise them independently.

Of course, the Gubbermint will intervene nice and early and tell them not to do it......please. bwahaha.

aaah, but all will be well; the shares are coming back? so there'll be plenty of folk who can get their hands on a bit more equity for some more doodads, so maybe a raise or two to slow them down after all?
 
The RBA will want to test the waters as they are concerned about the housing market bubble (there words), but they can't put interest rates up too high yet because of the exchange rate.

Expecting a .25% increase to see how the market reacts. Wouldn't be suprised with a .5% increase as Stevens seems gun ho. Would be a really bad decision to go above .5 raise by end of year (unless something unforseen happens) and would be surprised. Surely Stevens isn't that gun ho.

Would be very very surprised that interest rates stay on hold (unless evidence of a 2nd dip comes out). Propbably more likely 2nd dip will come about start of next year, if we have one.
 
my vote is a rate increase in either nov or dec.
Since the vote doesnt include the option of a dec rate increase i will just post my comment here.
 
my vote is a rate increase in either nov or dec.
Since the vote doesnt include the option of a dec rate increase i will just post my comment here.

We should add that option you are suggesting of no change in november and 0.25 in december.
can someone do it or tell me how to edit the poll? haven't be able to edit it
 
Why are they f-knuckles? Maybe they have the means to spend like there is no tomorrow, nothing wrong with that. Money needs to be circulated, no?

I reckon 2 x 0.25% rises for the last 2 months of this year.

A 3% cash rate is just too expansionary and the Govt/RBA just cant let it continue through the Xmas buying season.

Retail figures aren't much to write home about from all reports either. A few f-knuckles still out there spending like there's no tomorrow.
 
I voted no rise for November.

I also voted somewhere else that I thought there would be a rate rise by the end of the year.

I prefer to wait until the end of October now to make that call again.:)

Regards JO
 
I personally think that there might be one early as next week in Oct.

Why?.....Because this would shock a lot of people....it would be pre-emptive and return the most return for the buck. The RBA would rather increase early, deliver the most impact on the human psyche and limit the total number of increases.;)
 
Why are they f-knuckles? Maybe they have the means to spend like there is no tomorrow, nothing wrong with that. Money needs to be circulated, no?

Agree.

Yes, probably a bit harsh I guess. :D

So spend all you (not you personally Ev) want; just don't cry about it when it all turns sour and you end up on ACA etc whining about mortgage stress or whatever, or whine when you end up a pensioner.

But, they do; and with regular monotony. "Battlers".

Or, spend like there is no tomorrow, but add a few wealth creation moves in there at some point.
 
My vote would be 25% increase in Oct,because the longterm outlook is still strong,even with the people i talk too in various businessess who are going through difficult times for reasons outside their control..imho willair..
 
Mate, i agree with this part 100%. :)

So spend all you (not you personally Ev) want; just don't cry about it when it all turns sour and you end up on ACA etc whining about mortgage stress or whatever, or whine when you end up a pensioner.

But, they do; and with regular monotony. "Battlers".

Or, spend like there is no tomorrow, but add a few wealth creation moves in there at some point.
 
A 3% cash rate is just too expansionary and the Govt/RBA just cant let it continue through the Xmas buying season.

One thing is very important to consider is the difference between interest rates and inflation. When you get 3% interest rates and 0% inflation (or CPI) like the melbourne institute reported for the last 2 months, the rate poicy is restrictive and not as expansionary as, for example, when you get 5% infaltion and 5% RBA interest rate
 
I think they'll wait for stronger inflation numbers before raising rates. Bumping .25% just before Christmas will send a strong message - they'll be called *******s, but they'll get the job done.

Personally, I think the RBA have done a great job over the past few years.
 
Who knows what the RBA will do, but I'd actually like to see a 0.25% rise in October, because while on one hand it won't (shouldn't) have much effect in and of itself, it'll send a warning shot across the bows that the current low interest rates reallly won't last forever. Of course we've been being told this for ages, but imo it won't sink in for a lot of people until it actually starts happening. Then they can hold off on further rises if they want/need to.
 
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