I have done generalised number crunching - so please no one shoot me down!
These are simply opinions - and may not be fact or have any substance.
Take it as you will!
My summary - but take it in good account if you are thinking of buying NRAS.
On average NRAS properties are inflated by at least 5% compared to a similar new build in that given area or recent build in area like 1 or 2 years old.
Do the maths on how much more you could be paying there. That means higher interest to hold property because you have already spent more to be begin with. Does that make your Tax Credit look less good now?
For it to work in your favour (irrespective of the Tax credit as that should not be the driving force only of such a purchase) - you should be buying a NRAS property at least 5% or 10% less than a comparable property. Not similar or more. Then you are on reasonable level playing field, as the 20% less rent, + audit fee, and lower LVR are all red-tape that can minimise your options and hold you down.
A NRAS should represent a decent buy without the Tax Credit, and the Tax Credit just the cherry on the cake. Not the icing and flounder mix.
Plus you have a good $15k+ with holding & legal costs on your money from order to it being rentable. You may pay less on stamp duty but this makes up for it.
On average you will be paying 2%+ more on property management. Not much, but do the math’s on that over 10 years.
$1,000 + p.a in audit and extra admin fees. Not much, but still a lot over 10 years.
The Tax Credit is more attractive in the first few years. By 5 years or more, rents are rising faster than the CPI increase in Tax Credit, but you are still hitting a 25% less income return. Do the maths on a change in market rent of $350 from year one to $450 on year 5. 25% of $450 is a much bigger hit than 25% less income on $350. Your interest to hold property is likely the same.
In summary, the Tax credit will not save you if you pay too much for the property to begin with, and the discounted return will equally not save you particularly as market rents rise a lot in subsequent years.
All in all if you are putting down 20% as your own cash into it, then in the first few years it may be pretty cool, then after that you are evening out and heading south compared to buying non NRAS.
Everyone’s situation is different, and I can appreciate for many what I am saying doesn't apply or is incorrect.
Most people talking up NRAS are the marketers or people that have heard about how good it may be. You'll find very few outstanding case studies or testimonials from people who have actually bought some time ago with huge success.
At the end of the day, you are subsidising tenants that are eligible for special government housing deals. If you are worse off in 10 years compared to buying a comparable non NRAS property, then you have invested more in government housing as a community service, and not strictly property investment whereby maximum beturns be it rent, CG or both are the name of the game.
For those that feel personally responsible or would like to invest in public or more affordable housing in conjunction with the Government, then if the dollars don't always stack up your way, then there should be no harsh feelings, as you are fulfilling other good community deeds too.
Tread your own path as Scott Pape says