NSW Central Coast

[sash]

This is only potential...the other is banks willing to lend developers. The land would need to gto up a lot to make it viable for developers....till then the development is a catch 22 as there won't be money in it.

So watch what house prices do first!

this might be a repost but this is a great read: http://forecast2.id.com.au/Default.aspx?id=259&pg=5520

"Significant development opportunities have been identified in the town centres of Gosford-West Gosford, Woy Woy-Blackwall and Umina Beach. This will generally take the form of medium and high-rise development."

"Elsewhere, there are significant constraints to future development, with limited availability of land suitable for development. Growth in households is also expected to come from the conversion of holiday dwellings to permanent residences as well as the construction of new dwellings."

Help me out here as I'm very very new to investing - should I be worried of the potential development plans in the above areas? And can the oversupply of units bring down house prices/rents?

haywire

 

[see_change]

I'd assume that the units that china exerted to , selling for 600 originally , would currently be selling for less than their original build price .

Through in inflation and GST , if a developer was doing them now he have to sell them for more than that to make money .

ie . New units will be considerably more expensive than the 270 than china mentions they are / were for sale for .

What would you buy . Ten years old for 270 or wait a while to buy a new one for 700 . ...

That's assuming that a developer is silly enough to build new ones considering what the old ones sell for ...

Ah..... But with sydney booming , people are moving to the central coast because its cheaper , and now prices have gone up and now it's economical to buy new for 700.

..........

GEEE, DO YOU REMEMBER WHEN YOU COULD BUY UNITS HERE FOR 270 ...
What . 270 !!!!
Were they ever that cheap ....?
I wish I'd bought one or maybe 5 back then

Cliff

BTW this not a recommendation to buy. I HAVE DONE NO DD ON THE AREA as I'm not looking at buying there , but if I was buying in NSW at the moment it's an area I would look at ( along with upper north shore , Hornsby .. Mt Colah , any where on central coast to Newcastle and even maybe karuah ..)
it just a tongue in cheek commentary on a possible ( but IMHO ) a quite like outcome .

 

[sash]

Cliff spot on.....just the cost of building a new unit in a multi-story unit with developer profits is probably around $300k. The add the land which is about 100k a site (after adding in approval costs).

So you are looking at about $400-450k just to buy a brand new unit. Picking up a older unit built a couple of years ago where values have been smashed is not a bad idea...of course you would want to sure that all tenants are not DoH.

For example around my area...Lane Cove West...threy are building units on Mowbray Rd. The 1 bed units started at 420k ...they are now selling at 500k. The 2 beds start at $580k. The reason is the affordability ceiling. Interesting enought it as pushed the older units through the roof.

I'd assume that the units that china exerted to , selling for 600 originally , would currently be selling for less than their original build price .

Through in inflation and GST , if a developer was doing them now he have to sell them for more than that to make money .

ie . New units will be considerably more expensive than the 270 than china mentions they are / were for sale for .

What would you buy . Ten years old for 270 or wait a while to buy a new one for 700 . ...

That's assuming that a developer is silly enough to build new ones considering what the old ones sell for ...

Ah..... But with sydney booming , people are moving to the central coast because its cheaper , and now prices have gone up and now it's economical to buy new for 700.

..........

GEEE, DO YOU REMEMBER WHEN YOU COULD BUY UNITS HERE FOR 270 ...
What . 270 !!!!
Were they ever that cheap ....?
I wish I'd bought one or maybe 5 back then

Cliff

BTW this not a recommendation to buy. I HAVE DONE NO DD ON THE AREA as I'm not looking at buying there , but if I was buying in NSW at the moment it's an area I would look at ( along with upper north shore , Hornsby .. Mt Colah , any where on central coast to Newcastle and even maybe karuah ..)
it just a tongue in cheek commentary on a possible ( but IMHO ) a quite like outcome .

 

[see_change]

Another consideration is the advantage of not buying new .

We looked at a unit that was 7 years old . A look at the strata report put us off and has currently depressed the price expectations by around 50 k and in a HOT market it's not selling . Only reason we thought about it , is the issues are depressing the price but not the rent , so it's got a very good return for the area.

Our concern was'nt the problems which have been discovered , but the potential for more serious problems later on , ie concrete cancer. The lack of attention to detail could be symptomatic of a more widespread problem.

Two extra levees so far . One fund the Supreme Court action and the other one to pay for the repairs the builder should have done if he hadn't gone bankrupt.

Cliff

 

[rockDr]

A few of the recent articles about the F3 to M2 link.

This will be vital transport infrastructure helping link Central Coast and Hunter to Sydney.

Transurban stated that the upgrade would be operating from 2018. So longer time frame but will help reduce burden along Pennant Hills road for commuters.

Will also help connect north western Sydney back to F3.

http://news.drive.com.au/drive/road...ls-for-motorists-using-m2-20130801-2r0rg.html

http://news.drive.com.au/drive/road...ls-for-motorists-using-m2-20130801-2r0rg.html

http://www.urbanalyst.com/in-the-ne...-proposed-f3-to-m2-road-link-moves-ahead.html

 

[china]

Another consideration is the advantage of not buying new .

We looked at a unit that was 7 years old . A look at the strata report put us off and has currently depressed the price expectations by around 50 k and in a HOT market it's not selling . Only reason we thought about it , is the issues are depressing the price but not the rent , so it's got a very good return for the area.

Our concern was'nt the problems which have been discovered , but the potential for more serious problems later on , ie concrete cancer. The lack of attention to detail could be symptomatic of a more widespread problem.

Two extra levees so far . One fund the Supreme Court action and the other one to pay for the repairs the builder should have done if he hadn't gone bankrupt.

Cliff

Having obtained strata reports on many unit blocks in Gosford, I find many common features.

1. Building defects: mostly requiring remediation work
2. Usually special levies imposed at some stage
3. Builders have always gone bankrupt.

Yet, the lower priced units 250-350k units are still selling very well right now.

 

[see_change]

Having obtained strata reports on many unit blocks in Gosford, I find many common features.

1. Building defects: mostly requiring remediation work
2. Usually special levies imposed at some stage
3. Builders have always gone bankrupt.

All part of sensible DD. Is that many or every one ?

If you're waiting for certainty , it doesn't happen .

To the best of my recollection , every property investment I've made has been questioned by someone .

Cliff

 

[china]

All part of sensible DD. Is that many or every one ?

If you're waiting for certainty , it doesn't happen .

To the best of my recollection , every property investment I've made has been questioned by someone .

Cliff

I am yet to find a Gosford unit block whose strata search shows:

1. no defects
2. healthy sinking fund
3. no history of special levies

 

[see_change]

I am yet to find a Gosford unit block whose strata search shows:

1. no defects
2. healthy sinking fund
3. no history of special levies

I can cope without a healthy sinking fund . Very few blocks have a health Sinking fund given that the criteria were changed not that long ago in NSW

Defects , what ? minor , major , structural ? cosmetic ?

Special Levies . Why ? what for , for upgrade ? or structural problems

Cliff

 

[china]

I can cope without a healthy sinking fund . Very few blocks have a health Sinking fund given that the criteria were changed not that long ago in NSW

Defects , what ? minor , major , structural ? cosmetic ?

Special Levies . Why ? what for , for upgrade ? or structural problems

Cliff

The defects can be for a variety of issues, almost never cosmetic. Special levies are usually for building remediation after builder has gone bust.

 

[see_change]

.......yawn ......

 

[rockDr]

Is there any specific reason you guys are looking at units versus houses in the Gosford area?

Only interested as house and land (albeit older style property 20-30 years old) are approx 320-350k.

I haven't purchased any units in the past and always liked the 'bricks and mortar' ownership of a house and land.

Something that no doubt will change when we purchase in inner city areas.

 

[china]

Is there any specific reason you guys are looking at units versus houses in the Gosford area?

Only interested as house and land (albeit older style property 20-30 years old) are approx 320-350k.

I haven't purchased any units in the past and always liked the 'bricks and mortar' ownership of a house and land.

Something that no doubt will change when we purchase in inner city areas.

In Gosford CBD itself, the properties are mostly units in large developments. There is some contention in the discussions above as to whether these represent good buying opportunity at the moment given that they have high rental yields and are at rock bottom prices, below replacement cost.

 

[see_change]

Is there any specific reason you guys are looking at units versus houses in the Gosford area?

Only interested as house and land (albeit older style property 20-30 years old) are approx 320-350k.

I haven't purchased any units in the past and always liked the 'bricks and mortar' ownership of a house and land.

Something that no doubt will change when we purchase in inner city areas.

Hi

as china pointed out , it was a discussion about the merits of units rather than advise to buy them.

China was pointing out had badly they have done in recent times ( ? suggesting this as a reason to avoid them ) . Myself and Sash were looking at that underperformance and wondering whether this suggests that " maybe this is the time to be buying them " . It is hard to pick the bottom of a market and it isn't necessary to do it to make money.

If I was buying on the central coast I'd probably be looking at a house ( oh ... we actually did buy one up there ... though not quite Central coast ... North arm Cove to be specific as a weekender , but the market was at the bottom of the cycle there as well ) .

We have looked at buying property there in the last months , but decided against it , purely on the basis of wanting to minimise our land tax bill in in NSW . We've been looking at units in Sydney , but haven't found the right one as of yet .

I think now is not an unreasonable time to be buying on the central coast , but remember , I'm not a financial advisor , just ( to you ) an opinionated anonymous person on an internet forum.

Cliff

 

[strongy1986]

Hi

as china pointed out , it was a discussion about the merits of units rather than advise to buy them.

China was pointing out had badly they have done in recent times ( ? suggesting this as a reason to avoid them ) . Myself and Sash were looking at that underperformance and wondering whether this suggests that " maybe this is the time to be buying them " . It is hard to pick the bottom of a market and it isn't necessary to do it to make money.

If I was buying on the central coast I'd probably be looking at a house ( oh ... we actually did buy one up there ... though not quite Central coast ... North arm Cove to be specific as a weekender , but the market was at the bottom of the cycle there as well ) .

We have looked at buying property there in the last months , but decided against it , purely on the basis of wanting to minimise our land tax bill in in NSW . We've been looking at units in Sydney , but haven't found the right one as of yet .

I think now is not an unreasonable time to be buying on the central coast , but remember , I'm not a financial advisor , just ( to you ) an opinionated anonymous person on an internet forum.

Cliff

"I'm not a financial advisor"

Makes me laugh when people say that on here. Reason is that taking advice from people like you would be way better than the advice that people pay thousands for
Someone I know went and saw an advisor and all they did was put some money In a manager fund.... Then they said come back every six months and well talk about how your retirement goal is progressing...
I told him he should get himself into more debt but hes used to buying heavy negatively geared properties close to home so he won't do it because his mindset is not right for it.

 

[rockDr]

"I'm not a financial advisor"

Makes me laugh when people say that on here. Reason is that taking advice from people like you would be way better than the advice that people pay thousands for
Someone I know went and saw an advisor and all they did was put some money In a manager fund.... Then they said come back every six months and well talk about how your retirement goal is progressing...
I told him he should get himself into more debt but hes used to buying heavy negatively geared properties close to home so he won't do it because his mindset is not right for it.

It's a funny one that people have to use that disclaimer.

I post quite regularly on HotCopper also, and there have been quite a few law suits created in the past based on what posters had stated.

The far majority of these were defamation cases though.

I always think people should do their own research, if it is regarding shares, property etc.

 

[china]

If advice sounds dodgy or too good to be true, it probably is.

Just because you are paying for the advice or the advisor sits in a high rise office with views of the Opera House, behind a gold gilded desk, wearing an Armani suit does not mean that the advice is any more valid or useful than internet chat room discussions.

 

[strongy1986]

It's a funny one that people have to use that disclaimer.

I post quite regularly on HotCopper also, and there have been quite a few law suits created in the past based on what posters had stated.

The far majority of these were defamation cases though.

I always think people should do their own research, if it is regarding shares, property etc.

Hotcopper.... Has taught me some good lessons
If people are talking about it already it's probably too late - find the next opportunity
Fortunately the housing market is not as Instantaneous as the share market

 

[rockDr]

Hotcopper.... Has taught me some good lessons
If people are talking about it already it's probably too late - find the next opportunity
Fortunately the housing market is not as Instantaneous as the share market

Lol, some good stuff on Hotcopper but you really have to sift through a lot of rubbish.

SIR was talked about a lot before their big exploration success, over a one year time frame provided approx between 20-50 times gains.

But there are literally hundreds of exploration juniors on the ASX. A lot of research is required and even then it comes down to some good luck

 

[strongy1986]

Lol, some good stuff on Hotcopper but you really have to sift through a lot of rubbish.

SIR was talked about a lot before their big exploration success, over a one year time frame provided approx between 20-50 times gains.

But there are literally hundreds of exploration juniors on the ASX. A lot of research is required and even then it comes down to some good luck

SIR - I think it went from 1cent to $4
So more like a 400 bagger....

If only!