Giday
FYI I wanted to post this to an appropriate thread as a note, but there is none, and the one on rates seems to be debating macro economic theory out of the US so FYI....
After 2 years of saying the recovery is false, weak, unsustainable, essentially an "Economy Bear" I have conceded defeat. I was wrong!
I have no idea from what I read on the economy as to where it is going. Doom to come, boom to continue. It makes no sense. So when is doubt, use fundamentals I say...so I asked myself:
Will rates go up? very likely.
How much? at least 0.25%, possible 0.5% , chance of 1%!
When?, first two quarters, then rest of year.
Will banks raise without RBA, most likely
Will banks Banks raise above RBA, very very likely.
Can gov do anything to stop this? LOL No.
Will rates go down, very unlikely
If so by how much? 0.25%.
When? when a major disaster hits.
Is that likely? yes but we have then all the time and it still goes up???
So I do know I paying with a 0.8% discount 7.01%
I can get 7.1% fixed for three years on 80% of my debt and increase my borrowing capacity due to increased valuations.
Rates need only go up 0.25% and I am ahead and have locked in today's valuations and ahead by 0.15%. If they stay the same, I have got more borrowing and only paying 0.09% more. If they go down some thing bad has happened.
So I have followed the logic of above and locked at 7.1% for three years. Not bad considering. What you do you think?
Peter 14.7
FYI I wanted to post this to an appropriate thread as a note, but there is none, and the one on rates seems to be debating macro economic theory out of the US so FYI....
After 2 years of saying the recovery is false, weak, unsustainable, essentially an "Economy Bear" I have conceded defeat. I was wrong!
I have no idea from what I read on the economy as to where it is going. Doom to come, boom to continue. It makes no sense. So when is doubt, use fundamentals I say...so I asked myself:
Will rates go up? very likely.
How much? at least 0.25%, possible 0.5% , chance of 1%!
When?, first two quarters, then rest of year.
Will banks raise without RBA, most likely
Will banks Banks raise above RBA, very very likely.
Can gov do anything to stop this? LOL No.
Will rates go down, very unlikely
If so by how much? 0.25%.
When? when a major disaster hits.
Is that likely? yes but we have then all the time and it still goes up???
So I do know I paying with a 0.8% discount 7.01%
I can get 7.1% fixed for three years on 80% of my debt and increase my borrowing capacity due to increased valuations.
Rates need only go up 0.25% and I am ahead and have locked in today's valuations and ahead by 0.15%. If they stay the same, I have got more borrowing and only paying 0.09% more. If they go down some thing bad has happened.
So I have followed the logic of above and locked at 7.1% for three years. Not bad considering. What you do you think?
Peter 14.7
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