Hello All
WARNING Rant Ahead
Firstly, it is good to see a good old fashioned debate on the state of the market and not “troll hunting”. Some of us "oldies" at SS would debate all the time back in yonder and it was not D&G versus BULL but simply, another opinion.
I welcome those less pro-property as it gives you another view and let’s face it; we (mostly) are here to learn. Even Peter Spann would say that the value he gains from SS is an opinion of the market from the average investor. This would be invaluable research to him and fun.
Secondly, I don’t see all this talk about” banning this, he a troll, he a property bull, she is plant, etc…” as being anything but ego on both sides. I mean, if you want an absolutely stupid thread or post to die…. then don’t reply. It is really that simple. I am constantly amazed that highly intelligent people get “sucker punched” each time into keeping a thread they hate, alive.
Rant off.
On Topic some very good points on all sides. Especially Tcocaro. Kudos coming.
For my bit, I don’t see a massive slump.
IMO Australia is not connected to the world like in the past and frankly, it could be argued we never were and that only now have the computers and stats to prove it and the courage to ask it.
We survived in my adult life chronological order, 1987 Crash, Great Property Crash of 1990, Skase, Bond, Tricontinental Crash, State Bank VIC sell off, Button Plan for Cars, Asian Crisis, Y2K, DOTCOMM Bubble, Sept 11, SARS, Bird Flu, Drought and now Sub-Prime and Oil Shock 2. Survive means we are not all on the street jobless, homeless, wondering where our next feed is.
The late eighties/early nineties were significantly harder than now. I was retrenched twice and invested in a private Company that went belly up. Prices for cars skyrocketed. Big Companies went belly up. Banks lost deposit savings. Unemployment was 10% plus and rate were as high as 17%. To paraphrase that iconic movie of the era Crocodile Dundee, “you call now a recession then was a recession”!
When there are no jobs for those who want those, rates are on double figures, banks are not loaning money, prices for everything are going …..then we have a claim to pain.
IMO what we have is the hangover from a debt fuelled binge that has given the average Gen Y a false sense of values as to possessions and expectations. Happy to divorce each other but fight tooth and nail to keep the Plasma. Complain about petrol prices but buy a new car every three years ignoring depreciation. Text, MMS, and email via mobile phones how poor they are, oblivious to cost.
Now I know not all GenY are like this and yes even in my day the average punter liked to spend but a good slowdown is what we need to get some perspective into people lives.
As for house prices going down big time, all of the above crises failed to bring it about and as I see it , compared to before, we are yet to see any real pain.
AND today,
the RBA will be start taking the pain away. Why? becaue Plasma sales have slumped.
Regards
Peter 14.7