"Parts of Melbourne in a bubble"

exactly,

I believe that it wil be a matter of time before it completely plateaus for a few years, as for a drop, maybe a few% at the most

the Overseas money there, there is plenty more where that came from so we wont be seeing 'Mortgagee in Posession' sales at all.....or ever

It is not difficult to sell a dilapidated home in GW sitting on a 700m2+ block, within 1.5kms from train station for about $1.2-$1.5mil easy, the highest was $2.1mil if I am not mistaken.

I'd say properties are probably between $500-$700K overpriced.

A lot of purchasers here are probably Chinese nationals siphoning money. A couple of MacMasions in the road have been laying empty for about a year now. One went for $2.5mil, other went for reportedly $3mil.

They don't care and think its cheap because a 99 yr lease in China on a lil box apartment is now $1mil?
 
I'd never buy in Sunshine for over 300k! And Wheelers Hill has to be the most overpriced concrete slab I've ever driven through.

You know those people who can't wait to get out of Noble/Doveton/Dandenong and move into country Berwick? Well add wheelers hill to that list, I don't care for schools and inconvenience of picking up computer parts. Everytime for the last 20yrs we've been there we've wanted to get out. It's a cluttered rundown cluster of concrete full of wreckless drivers. If you want the schools you'd be a fool to pay millions when you can simply rent in the zone, apply then buy a house in a nicer area for 1/6th of the price.

Same goes for Glen Waverley tbh.. one of the worst carparks in the SE. Wantirna is leagues nicer also. GW, Essendon etc are not "leafy suburbs" lol whoever thinks that has never been to an actual leafy suburb. GW is more a concrete slab with holes drilled into it so 1 little tree can be planted every 10 meters. Artificial green is worse than none, reminds me of the plastic fruit. Not one over 100yrs old go on maps and you'll see a flat slab of rooftops lol, without any canopy. I wonder if GW is leafy enough that the possums will live there? GW as about as leafy as an indoor garden.

Before I joined this site I wondered why people lived in dumps like GW/Wheelers Hill when you could live somewhere nice like Ferntree Gully for half the price. Still wondering from a personal perspective!

Hang on, what about Jells Park and Shepherd Bush? Two of Melbourne's biggest and most visited parks. Glen Waverley is definitely leafy. I personally think it is over priced but let's not make up reasons like saying it's not leafy.
 
I'd never buy in Sunshine for over 300k! And Wheelers Hill has to be the most overpriced concrete slab I've ever driven through.

You know those people who can't wait to get out of Noble/Doveton/Dandenong and move into country Berwick? Well add wheelers hill to that list, I don't care for schools and inconvenience of picking up computer parts. Everytime for the last 20yrs we've been there we've wanted to get out. It's a cluttered rundown cluster of concrete full of wreckless drivers. If you want the schools you'd be a fool to pay millions when you can simply rent in the zone, apply then buy a house in a nicer area for 1/6th of the price.

Same goes for Glen Waverley tbh.. one of the worst carparks in the SE. Wantirna is leagues nicer also. GW, Essendon etc are not "leafy suburbs" lol whoever thinks that has never been to an actual leafy suburb. GW is more a concrete slab with holes drilled into it so 1 little tree can be planted every 10 meters. Artificial green is worse than none, reminds me of the plastic fruit. Not one over 100yrs old go on maps and you'll see a flat slab of rooftops lol, without any canopy. I wonder if GW is leafy enough that the possums will live there? GW as about as leafy as an indoor garden.

Before I joined this site I wondered why people lived in dumps like GW/Wheelers Hill when you could live somewhere nice like Ferntree Gully for half the price. Still wondering from a personal perspective!

lol that's rubbish James with all due respect.
 
lol that's rubbish James with all due respect.

That's true these days but I've grown up knowing these area's there's nothing blue chip about them imo. Personally I'd never pay half a million to get into Sunshine I'd rather move further out to a nicer suburb. Sunshine is a 30 minute train trip, You can get homes in Westall for 500k that are 29min to the cbd. I honestly think the west is an after effect of a property cycle that was all about buying blue chip properties in A class suburbs, train stations etc, now people are afraid of missing out or are priced out of where they really want to live and are simply buying anywhere as long as it's close to the city.

Sunshine/Braybook/Maidstone are not the same as anything between Hawthorn and Ringwood. The west is not considered prestige nor "world class living" like the east. Sunshine is gentrifying, but even Footscray has yet to take off it's not the same quality of investment. I don't think the west will outgrow the east and to me Preston looks miles better than Sunshine houses are also 500-600k there and it is far more established.

Sure there's a bit going on in the west, but I think they're more like you're outer property's in fringe suburbs that generally appreciate due to the people being priced out of the blue chip areas. I could see the west becoming a bit too costly from a fad and coming down a bit in the future. Sunshine went crazy 3 years ago houses were only 200k there around the 2010 mark
 
Sunshine is a 30 minute train trip, You can get homes in Westall for 500k that are 29min to the cbd.

The difference between Sunshine and Westall is that Sunshine, for all its faults, is a real community with a discernible centre and life that's grown over years. It's got shops, cafes, schools and even a seat of local government. It has a history which is intertwined with the state's. Numerous community groups call Sunshine home.

The same can be said for Brunswick, Yarraville, St Kilda, Prahran, Port Melbourne, etc. And even Clayton, Springvale, Berwick, Frankston and Werribee. So 'real communities' can be found at all prices. The mixed use diverse centres these have are perhaps more resilient and accommodating of change than areas with big high-rises, which will nevertheless deteriorate and require reconstruction eventually.

Whereas Westall, like Hillside or St Kilda Rd, is not a real community. Westall is just some new high-density units under power pylons beside a train line in a light industrial area. It looked like Westall got a lot of housing in the '60s and '70s but went to sleep for about 30 years before the subdividers moved in.

There are shops but they are rudimentary. For almost all needs you'd be going to Springvale or Clayton. https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-37...m2!1sY7WHHNeUUIl8Cpe_ZWe5HQ!2e0!6m1!1e1?hl=en

Westall's main strength is it's drivable to employment in the Monash precinct. It has better access to the north because the road goes over the rail. Despite its proximity it has no direct public transport to Monash University, so is of limited appeal to this market.

Westall may suit some types of investment. Eg buying an old house on a big block and subdividing. The townhouses near the station may appeal to a worker market who values convenience but otherwise has no life outside. It may appeal to certain ethnic markets. But I am not convinced that in all aspects it is necessarily superior to Sunshine.
 
+1

id say glen the most likely, to be honest, there is nothing fundamentally that can justify the huge price increases

id be very nervous if I was a local buying in there expecting similar growths

I also now more talk to property 'experts' who bought there 5 years ago, sat on it, and now its gone up, who now think they should have their own property tv show :p

A few years ago, some investors picked up a 100sqm shop in Glen Waverley for around $3m, renting $40k. At the same time I picked up a CBD shop around 160sqm for $3m, renting $200k.

At that time, I knew GW was brewing trouble. Just never knew the bubble is still bubbling along. But all I can say is, don't overestimate the Chinese money. Even Chinese property markets have crashed in China (a fact hidden well from the world), and crashed a lot more than America. So point is the Chinese can leave here as quickly as they came, and there could be many reasons why the money suddenly stops coming.

Did you know that Ireland once had the fastest net migration of Europe before the GFC? Try googling it.

So stick to the fundamentals and you'll be fine. Chase bubbles like GW or Box Hill, well look if you made money it's all because you're speculating. You could also make money buying stocks on sharemarket without knowing the name of the company.
 
A few years ago, some investors picked up a 100sqm shop in Glen Waverley for around $3m, renting $40k. At the same time I picked up a CBD shop around 160sqm for $3m, renting $200k.

At that time, I knew GW was brewing trouble. Just never knew the bubble is still bubbling along. But all I can say is, don't overestimate the Chinese money. Even Chinese property markets have crashed in China (a fact hidden well from the world), and crashed a lot more than America. So point is the Chinese can leave here as quickly as they came, and there could be many reasons why the money suddenly stops coming.

Did you know that Ireland once had the fastest net migration of Europe before the GFC? Try googling it.

So stick to the fundamentals and you'll be fine. Chase bubbles like GW or Box Hill, well look if you made money it's all because you're speculating. You could also make money buying stocks on sharemarket without knowing the name of the company.

of course, my comment was based on the assumption that the chinese economy doesnt crash too, if that crashed, I honestly wouldnt have a clue what would happen to the local asian markets eg GW, box hill, Doncaster etc.

would all the local australians who have been trying to get in for all these years to be outpriced suck up the excess supply and prop it up until the chinese market recovered? or is the dependency on the asian market too great ?

that being said, I cannot recall a suburb or area that has crashed more then the surrounding area or state average due to the Asian money influences
 
That's true these days but I've grown up knowing these area's there's nothing blue chip about them imo. Personally

with respect James, based on your comments, a lot of it is emotional, you are mixing (we all do too!) whether youd like to live there vs investment potential. Ive got properties in areas that I would never spend more then 2 hours there!
 
China's a hard beast to guess its next moves.

After all their own domestic market has already tanked. My cousins shop in some 1 million people town went from $15m to $4m between 2011 and 2013. He reckons he can't even get rid of it for $3m now.

What motivates them today to be here may change very easily tomorrow. People have very short term memories. Remember they were the talk of town in 2009/10 when Melb boomed? I don't see anyone talking bout Chinese money when the market corrected in 2012.

In fact when I showed them opportunities in 2012, they said to me, why would I want to buy something that grows so slowly? Of course fast forward to 2015 every Chinese relative and friend I have is asking me if there's any hotels, farms, houses, warehouses for sale.
 
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