Perth houses are currently as affordable as they were in 2003 and 1996

This was posted today by a member on another property forum I frequent.

Can't vouch for authenticity but it's an interesting story...
it's congruent with an email an agent sent me during the week....

Gordon has noticed the first signs that the real estate market in the Western Suburbs is picking up.



These are:

1. The number of potential buyers coming to home opens or enquiring has doubled or trebled this month over previous months.

2. Turnover of properties has improved by 30% to 50% over three years ago. The reasons seem to be:

a) Sellers adjusting their price expectations downwards to meet the market.

b) Much cheaper costs of mortgage money.

c) Slowly improving confidence in the future of the economy
 
An old adage that resource cycles last around 20 years.

Given we have just come off one massive resource peak, next peak will be around 2030 (give or take a few years, and for when the peak occurred)

Perth heavily related to resources.

Will start looking at Perth property market around 2025.

Not interested in 'buying the dips' in a market that is going to go through a structural bear market for the next 10 years.
I think this would be more accurate if you did a global replace of 'Perth' with 'Australia'
 
I don't follow stats because they are too easily manipulated and I frankly don't understand them would rather follow what is actually happening on the ground and keep it real

Perth market rose from 2012-14, market is now going sideways, boom again ?well not unless something dramatically changes. Boom cycles don't happen every 2 years, but hey if it happens I will be having a nice glass of Bubbles

Why? Mining boom over, change in fBh threshold, job losses, market sentiment, population growth/immigration
I agree there are lies, damned lies and statistics. Shadow loves them.

But I agree Perth is stagnant if now backward for the foreseeable future.

Recession is in the post and Sydney prices will be smashed.
 
Hi, a bit like the 4 blind men and the elephant, right? The one with the tail thinks it's a rope, the one with ear thinks it's a fan etc etc.

And all 4 of them were right too.

KY
 
Hi, a bit like the 4 blind men and the elephant, right? The one with the tail thinks it's a rope, the one with ear thinks it's a fan etc etc.

And all 4 of them were right too.

KY
Had never heard of it before

Once upon a time, there lived six blind men in a village. One day the villagers told them, "Hey, there is an elephant in the village today."

They had no idea what an elephant is. They decided, "Even though we would not be able to see it, let us go and feel it anyway." All of them went where the elephant was. Everyone of them touched the elephant.

"
  1. Hey, the elephant is a pillar," said the first man who touched his leg.
  2. "Oh, no! it is like a rope," said the second man who touched the tail.
  3. "Oh, no! it is like a thick branch of a tree," said the third man who touched the trunk of the elephant.
  4. "It is like a big hand fan" said the fourth man who touched the ear of the elephant.
  5. "It is like a huge wall," said the fifth man who touched the belly of the elephant.
  6. "It is like a solid pipe," Said the sixth man who touched the tusk of the elephant.

They began to argue about the elephant and everyone of them insisted that he was right. It looked like they were getting agitated.

A wise man was passing by and he saw this. He stopped and asked them, "What is the matter?" They said, "We cannot agree to what the elephant is like." Each one of them told what he thought the elephant was like.

The wise man calmly explained to them, "All of you are right. The reason every one of you is telling it differently because each one of you touched the different part of the elephant. So, actually the elephant has all those features what you all said."

"Oh!" everyone said. There was no more fight. They felt happy that they were all right.

The moral of the story is that there may be some truth to what someone says. Sometimes we can see that truth and sometimes not because they may have different perspective which we may not agree too. So, rather than arguing like the blind men, we should say, "Maybe you have your reasons."

This way we don?t get in arguments. In Jainism, it is explained that truth can be stated in seven different ways. So, you can see how broad our religion is. It teaches us to be tolerant towards others for their viewpoints. This allows us to live in harmony with the people of different thinking. This is known as the Syadvada, Anekantvad, or the theory of Manifold Predictions
 
Hi Shadow,

Hi Norwester, have you got a link/source for that?
I'm sure it's in the ABS data......(3010??)

Come to think of it, I think the article I read was talking about interstate movements.........?? (-176)

Anyhow, that 2.5% growth you mentioned at the start is now around 2.1%

Might be the highest for any city in Australia.......but when you look at the actual numbers it relates to, I think it paints a different picture.

In any maths, less growth = less demand (overall)

Won't get into the housing discussion as it is seriously too generalised unless you are talking about specific areas. (ie the number of tower cranes currently going up in the burbs as opposed to low density development).

As for the feasibility studies in your quoted extract from another.....they are exactly that, until funded and constructed to completion through the "25" stages of EPCM / Client bullsh@t. Agreed though, that the companies mentioned will use any excuse to downsize (any "bad times" are always the best times to restructure...:rolleyes:)) But I don't blame them though as some of the EPCM on cost %'s were just plain ridiculous (35% in some cases). I wont mention names.....but you know who you are...:). Samsung seems to have started that ball rolling with RH....but then again they aren't travelling that flash either......

Ciao

Nor
 
Ausprop,


It's not just Perth tho, FIFOs were coming from all over, I think half of Brisbane and NZ was FIFO Pilbara. Reported that the south west population is expanding on the back of returning FIFOs. Is there any evidence for all this talk? How many FIFOs were there and how many have lost their jobs?
The difficulty is in the delay of getting the numbers into stats.......and yes until then it is just that....talk.

Many thousands have lost jobs over the last 6 - 12 months.However, this is the nature of the beast, and as to how many have left the state /country, or been re employed elsewhere.........who knows until the figures catch up.

(If you want a clue though....talk to some recruitment agencies and ask them how many applications they are now receiving per listed vacancy. Then talk to any of the RTO's around...........and then the TAFE colleges.........all very interesting as in like wow, but on the whole everyone still seems to be in denial)

Ciao

Nor
 
it's congruent with an email an agent sent me during the week....

Gordon has noticed the first signs that the real estate market in the Western Suburbs is picking up.



These are:

1. The number of potential buyers coming to home opens or enquiring has doubled or trebled this month over previous months.

2. Turnover of properties has improved by 30% to 50% over three years ago. The reasons seem to be:

a) Sellers adjusting their price expectations downwards to meet the market.

b) Much cheaper costs of mortgage money.

c) Slowly improving confidence in the future of the economy

Surely you are jesting with some of this.
I've seen evidence of +20% drops on asking prices in these areas so you might have a) correct
No evidence of more people arriving at home opens in these areas.
Try it and see.
 
Surely you are jesting with some of this.
I've seen evidence of +20% drops on asking prices in these areas so you might have a) correct
No evidence of more people arriving at home opens in these areas.
Try it and see.
I didn't write it. They are reporting big increases.

20% drops is not in line with anything I have seen around my area tho, in fact there isn't much stock at all and what is there is moving quite quick
 
Who is they?
Surely not those "in the know, never vested "real estate agents? :D
I'm confused, the post said it was from a local agent, just saying what they said.

where are you seeing 20% drops? Western suburb prices have barely moved since the GFC slamming nearly a decade ago, a further 20% would be an incredible buying opportunity
 
I didn't write it. They are reporting big increases.

20% drops is not in line with anything I have seen around my area tho, in fact there isn't much stock at all and what is there is moving quite quick
Dalkeith is still stuffed, as is peppy grove, subi is slow and lower than peaks but stuff still appears to be moving. Renovated homes still going for under replacement value, particularly sub $2m.

Inner city luxury real estate is stuffed too, lots of stuff sitting on the market for a while and selling at decent discounts, this is for over $2m.

I know someone who bought in applecross around 6 months ago, paid I think $4.2m, previous owner paid $6.75m or so 2 years before.

Can't comment on claremont. Nedlands, dalkeith and peppy grove aren't doing well though and same with cott, all suburbs surrounding claremont

36 leon and I think 68 Watkins both on the market atm in dalkeith, both selling for approx 30% less than p was. Leon is a fully renovated 2 storey 4x3 on a quarter acre with pool etc asking mid $2m, still on the market. If the market had in fact picked up this would've been snapped up by now as it's pretty good buying.

Block values still $1.6-1.8m, was nearly $3m at peak

Just negotiated a cbd luxury purchase 30% less than 2 years ago. I'm not noticing any increased activity personally
 
Floreat being smacked as well. they are even discounting in Perry Lakes now.
Mount Claremont in line with that.
Difficult to seee how Claremont could be exempt.
Do you have the stats?

Unless it's just volume at the expense of price.
 
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