Perth houses are currently as affordable as they were in 2003 and 1996

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Shadow, 27th May, 2015.

  1. Ausprop

    Ausprop Member

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    it's congruent with an email an agent sent me during the week....

    Gordon has noticed the first signs that the real estate market in the Western Suburbs is picking up.



    These are:

    1. The number of potential buyers coming to home opens or enquiring has doubled or trebled this month over previous months.

    2. Turnover of properties has improved by 30% to 50% over three years ago. The reasons seem to be:

    a) Sellers adjusting their price expectations downwards to meet the market.

    b) Much cheaper costs of mortgage money.

    c) Slowly improving confidence in the future of the economy
     
  2. Ausprop

    Ausprop Member

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    I think this would be more accurate if you did a global replace of 'Perth' with 'Australia'
     
  3. Swearengen

    Swearengen Member

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    I agree there are lies, damned lies and statistics. Shadow loves them.

    But I agree Perth is stagnant if now backward for the foreseeable future.

    Recession is in the post and Sydney prices will be smashed.
     
  4. kum yin lau

    kum yin lau Member

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    Hi, a bit like the 4 blind men and the elephant, right? The one with the tail thinks it's a rope, the one with ear thinks it's a fan etc etc.

    And all 4 of them were right too.

    KY
     
  5. redwing

    redwing Progress Not Perfection

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    Had never heard of it before

     
  6. Norwester

    Norwester C'mon Rupert

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    Hi Shadow,

    I'm sure it's in the ABS data......(3010??)

    Come to think of it, I think the article I read was talking about interstate movements.........?? (-176)

    Anyhow, that 2.5% growth you mentioned at the start is now around 2.1%

    Might be the highest for any city in Australia.......but when you look at the actual numbers it relates to, I think it paints a different picture.

    In any maths, less growth = less demand (overall)

    Won't get into the housing discussion as it is seriously too generalised unless you are talking about specific areas. (ie the number of tower cranes currently going up in the burbs as opposed to low density development).

    As for the feasibility studies in your quoted extract from another.....they are exactly that, until funded and constructed to completion through the "25" stages of EPCM / Client bullsh@t. Agreed though, that the companies mentioned will use any excuse to downsize (any "bad times" are always the best times to restructure...:rolleyes:)) But I don't blame them though as some of the EPCM on cost %'s were just plain ridiculous (35% in some cases). I wont mention names.....but you know who you are...:). Samsung seems to have started that ball rolling with RH....but then again they aren't travelling that flash either......

    Ciao

    Nor
     
  7. Norwester

    Norwester C'mon Rupert

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    Ausprop,


    The difficulty is in the delay of getting the numbers into stats.......and yes until then it is just that....talk.

    Many thousands have lost jobs over the last 6 - 12 months.However, this is the nature of the beast, and as to how many have left the state /country, or been re employed elsewhere.........who knows until the figures catch up.

    (If you want a clue though....talk to some recruitment agencies and ask them how many applications they are now receiving per listed vacancy. Then talk to any of the RTO's around...........and then the TAFE colleges.........all very interesting as in like wow, but on the whole everyone still seems to be in denial)

    Ciao

    Nor
     
  8. Shadow

    Shadow Evil Specufestor

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  9. Shadow

    Shadow Evil Specufestor

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    I like statistics. I suspect you like lies.

    How far into the future can you see Perth going backwards for? Care to state a timeframe?

    I've been hearing that since 2007.
     
  10. Norwester

    Norwester C'mon Rupert

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  11. Rumplestiltskin

    Rumplestiltskin Member

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    Surely you are jesting with some of this.
    I've seen evidence of +20% drops on asking prices in these areas so you might have a) correct
    No evidence of more people arriving at home opens in these areas.
    Try it and see.
     
  12. Ausprop

    Ausprop Member

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    I didn't write it. They are reporting big increases.

    20% drops is not in line with anything I have seen around my area tho, in fact there isn't much stock at all and what is there is moving quite quick
     
  13. Rumplestiltskin

    Rumplestiltskin Member

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    Who is they?
    Surely not those "in the know, never vested "real estate agents? :D
     
  14. Rumplestiltskin

    Rumplestiltskin Member

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    Yeah and what area is that?
     
  15. Ausprop

    Ausprop Member

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    I'm confused, the post said it was from a local agent, just saying what they said.

    where are you seeing 20% drops? Western suburb prices have barely moved since the GFC slamming nearly a decade ago, a further 20% would be an incredible buying opportunity
     
  16. Ausprop

    Ausprop Member

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    Claremont .
     
  17. sanj

    sanj Member

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    Dalkeith is still stuffed, as is peppy grove, subi is slow and lower than peaks but stuff still appears to be moving. Renovated homes still going for under replacement value, particularly sub $2m.

    Inner city luxury real estate is stuffed too, lots of stuff sitting on the market for a while and selling at decent discounts, this is for over $2m.

    I know someone who bought in applecross around 6 months ago, paid I think $4.2m, previous owner paid $6.75m or so 2 years before.

    Can't comment on claremont. Nedlands, dalkeith and peppy grove aren't doing well though and same with cott, all suburbs surrounding claremont

    36 leon and I think 68 Watkins both on the market atm in dalkeith, both selling for approx 30% less than p was. Leon is a fully renovated 2 storey 4x3 on a quarter acre with pool etc asking mid $2m, still on the market. If the market had in fact picked up this would've been snapped up by now as it's pretty good buying.

    Block values still $1.6-1.8m, was nearly $3m at peak

    Just negotiated a cbd luxury purchase 30% less than 2 years ago. I'm not noticing any increased activity personally
     
  18. Rumplestiltskin

    Rumplestiltskin Member

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    Floreat being smacked as well. they are even discounting in Perry Lakes now.
    Mount Claremont in line with that.
    Difficult to seee how Claremont could be exempt.
    Do you have the stats?

    Unless it's just volume at the expense of price.
     
  19. Rumplestiltskin

    Rumplestiltskin Member

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    Home open Floreat

    $1000,050.

    Now to be auctioned, bids starting at $800,000.
     
  20. Shadow

    Shadow Evil Specufestor

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