Perth Property Market updates

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Tano, 5th Nov, 2014.

  1. Tano

    Tano Member

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    Share your updates here ... vacancy rates, zoning changes, gov policy changes, house sales data, new infrastructure, news (optimistic or pessimestic) etc etc


    Herron Todd White: http://htw.com.au/Month_in_Review/Month-In-Review-November-2014.pdf


    Office vacancy in the Perth CBD increased 2.8% to 11.8% as at July 2014. Office market conditions are predicted to worsen over the next 12 months in Perth

    There is a softening trend however there are no signs that the market is moving in either direction. Property priced within the first home buyer market sector is still highly active. The sub $1 million market is stable,The market between $1 million and $1.5 million is stable, The market above $1.5 million has slowed significantly.

    Rezoning to encourage higher density within areas such as Spearwood, Hamilton Hill and Coolbellup have heated the market significantly within the last twelve months

    The inner city apartment market is soft and trending downwards. Valuers in this region have suggested prices may have declined and that it’s common to see apartments resold below the off the plan purchase price.
     
    Last edited: 5th Nov, 2014
  2. Tano

    Tano Member

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  3. Freckle

    Freckle Member

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    I got out of Hedland in 12 and headed to Mandurah to see what business opportunities there might be post the mining construction boom. Over that year all I saw was declining rents (residential) and an alarming number of vacant retail shop fronts. I took the time to talk to many small business owners from Perth to Mandurah and the common thread was it was getting tougher and tougher to make a buck. Commercial leases where killing many a small business.

    Looking at the broader picture it was obvious that WA was going to take a serious hit as mining construction unwound. That would be exacerbated by declining resource revenues as resource prices declined on a Chinese growth slowdown. State budgets and spending will have to be slashed to align with resource rental income. Once the current big government infrastructure projects are finished I don't expect new ones to be added any time soon. In fact planned projects may be canned, postponed or substantially scaled down.

    I don't see any slowdown in that contraction momentum. To me WA is running on hopium and what little momentum remains after the resource boom. International immigration has been a supportive driver of demand in WA. That won't be enough in the long run I believe. Unemployment is climbing fairly fast in WA and nationally youth unemployment, 15-24yo, is more than double at around 14%.

    The overall trend is all negative and has a long way to go yet before it bottoms out. There are signs the WA market is correcting and my gut instincts suggest by 4Q15 that correction may be in full swing. If it settles down I don't expect to see any sort of reasonable growth for quite a while after that. It'll be a lot tougher to make a buck out of the WA market for some time is my guess.
     
  4. thatbum

    thatbum law talking guy

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    Not sure about this because 2012 was actually the perfect time to buy in Mandurah - most people would have made a fair bit buying in then.
     
  5. Gecko235

    Gecko235 Member

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    Not sure about this because 2012 was actually the perfect time to buy in Mandurah - most people would have made a fair bit buying in then.

    2nd this but what do you think about the future of Mandurah. I rather like it and hope to live there one day but I think buying there right now would drain my finances a bit much.

    My mum is a school teacher and she has heard that there's a lot more kids applying for the schools down there then expected.
     
  6. Ausprop

    Ausprop Member

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    Mandurah has definitely bounced off the bottom and is up 10-15% from it's lows. It's often better to ride a confirmed trend tho than to 'pick the bottom'

    there are still ridiculously cheap development sites around. amazing value... sit on one of those sites as a PPOR and develop down the track and you can't go wrong. not sure how you could say it would drain your finances... hard to see how you could live any cheaper anywhere else?
     
  7. Freckle

    Freckle Member

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    Not sure how that works. I left mid 13. The landlady sold out and lost about 40k. Place down the road was down about 50k (Lakelands).

    Mate lived and rented over at Greenfields. Prices dropped there too. Moved out to the fringe of Greenfields (Redcliffe Rd) to a place that was on the market and had been for over 6 months at the time. He's since bought but that place still never sold. I thought the asking price was over the top but that's what the agents were pushing.

    The place can be a bit quirky property wise. A fair mix of property types in a relatively small area so at 10-15% you'd have to be more specific.
     
  8. Freckle

    Freckle Member

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    It was alright initially but mosy's and crime are nuts there. After 12 months there we were bored sh*$less. Couldn't wait to get out of the place in the end.
     
  9. Tano

    Tano Member

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    Unemployment

    Seems like very bad news in Canberra

    [​IMG]
     
  10. Gecko235

    Gecko235 Member

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    I live at home :)

    I have on dividend shares. Would probably have to sell them to buy another house, unless I use some equity.

    If you had a quick look at the Mandurah area what would you be buying?

    Also I just got a land tax bill for $535. Is it worth buying in WA again or should I puchase in another state to avoid further tax?
     
  11. Ausprop

    Ausprop Member

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    you seriously want to go interstate for the sake of this sort of money? each property should be in a separate trust, unless you are mating a CF+ with a CF-
     
  12. Ausprop

    Ausprop Member

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  13. Gecko235

    Gecko235 Member

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    Got flicked an email and was just looking at that property couple minutes ago.

    I know nothing about trusts :(
     
  14. Freckle

    Freckle Member

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    WA trend looks wrong. Last I saw it just jumped from 5.2 to 5.9. 11/12 trend line looks wrong as well.

    I'd be highly suspicious of that source (digital finance).
     
  15. Freckle

    Freckle Member

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    There's no shortage of central blocks that I'm aware of. Last time I was there there were plenty of empty blocks around and 100's of large blocks with old dilapidated houses on them (urban renewal?)
     
  16. Tano

    Tano Member

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    busselton

    http://www.apimagazine.com.au/api-online/news/2014/11/regional-growth-in-busselton

    The Busselton urban area saw growth of 5.9 per cent in the year to September 2014 compared to the 12 months to September 2013. The Forest Highway means Perth is now half an hour closer.
    Mandurah was the second best performer for the region with growth of 3.8 per cent
    Third place was Albany with 3.6 per cent growth

    Port Hedland dropped by 7.6 per cent
    Karratha suffered the biggest disappointment, dropping 12.2 per cent
    Broome saw a 9.6 per cent retraction


    Anyone have any opinions on long term investing in Margaret River?
     
  17. Ausprop

    Ausprop Member

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    I prefer dunsborough / eagle bay but I think the south west is looking very strong, with the backing of a demographic migration by the retirees and a lifestyle change by others and particularly FIFOs. I hope to move there as soon as possible but hope not too many other people do as population will ruin it. things like dunsborough lakes and vasse new town are an abomination on the landscape
     
  18. Tano

    Tano Member

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    Perth Prestige Property Discounts Ahead

    http://sourceable.net/perth-prestige-property-discounts-ahead/

    The institute says prestige property prices in the exclusive river and beachside suburbs of Perth appear to have stabilised since steep falls in 2011/12, but the high-end $3 million plus market remains subdued.
    REIWA president David Airey said more than half of vendors in the mining hub of Perth were dropping their prices, with discounting tending to occur on properties listed above $1.5 million.
     
  19. Tano

    Tano Member

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    Coastal living prices smashed

    http://www.hotspotting.com.au/articles/busselton-market-leader-wa/

    "And they say the coastal strip has become an unattainable dream for many, except for those who plan to snap up what is believed to be one of the last opportunities to own beach-front land in the established township of Two Rocks.

    Atlantis Beach has 4 bedroom 2 bathroom family home packages priced from $340,000 to $370,000 for a very substantial, open plan modern beach house on at least a 450 sqm lot. Your new home is within 1,500 metres of wide sandy swimming and surfing beaches. The entry price for a modern, low maintenance 2 bedroom 1 bathroom home on a 225 sqm lot at Atlantis Beach is under $305,000, excellent value for first home buyers, retirees and downsizers. Land prices are $190,000 for a 450 sqm lot and $174,000 for a 375 sqm lot"

    Has anyone here done some research on Atlantis Beach? It does sound tempting but it seems quite far away at 25km north of Butler with no infrastructure.
     
  20. sanj

    sanj Member

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    pretty cheeky to call it beach front land and then say later its 1.5km from beach.

    i wouldnt buy in there but the prices do look good, i just dont know how comfortable i am relying signifcantly on the retiree demographic, for families etc i can only imagine it will get harder and harder to live so far out as traffic gets worse.

    youre 38km to joondalup and 22km to the nearest train station (butler)

    to put into perspective youre further from joondalup than perth is so it really is the sticks and will only appeal to a small demographic.

    also even if two rocks stacks up as an area to invest in i think buying a new home on small blocks at the prices being quoted vs someting like this is a bad idea http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-wa-two+rocks-118046267

    3x2 home, dated but pretty good condition, 800sqm of land $410k.

    once these new homes are old and dated themselves they will stack up even worse as an investment vs whats existing in the town.