Population growth figures

I see the media (and government) have renewed the population growth figures. Up something like 68% in the next 30 odd years leading to a population of about 35million.

No mention of any extra building programs (or water/infrastructure solutions). So it seems the future may be ripe for further development in key places. Having said that, i think any developer worth their salt would or should be looking at sustainability and eco-friendly developments...


Thanks

g
 
This really concerns me.

This is a property investment forum, and this massive increase in people will be a great thing for property prices. There is no two ways about it.

It's everything else that is a concern to me. We are being fed a pile of propaganda that we need this sort of population growth to keep our economy pumping so we can stay wealthy. I just don't believe that for a minute. There is a lot of other factors that determine wealth other than house and land prices.

See ya's.
 
I agree as i think it comes down to quality of life - and i think that is far more important then numbers and growth.

I've lived in various parts of Asia. During that time, i have lived in some very exciting cities in terms of growth and wealth. But i didn't see that the locals in those cities had a good quality lifestyle. This is in Asian cities ranging in population from 300k to 12 million!

I've seen families all crammed in a minute apartment and sharing bedrooms. I've seen 5 person families in HK with 3 teenage mixed gender kids sharing 2 small bedrooms in bunks, I've been to many places that are only accessed by a tight laneway and the smell of human waste fills the air - this is in developed cities. I've seen drains of white/grey water feeding into the rivers that run through concreted school playgrounds. I've experienced the bland/plastic/deyhradted food that middle income families can only afford to live on. I've lived and worked in an environment where people where face masks as daily duties. I've ridden my motor bike with a white shirt for a week to have it turn grey by the end of the week. I've had to clean the blades of my fan every week to get the black gunk off them that accumlated each week (and i don't smoke). I been to cities where i cannot see the stars. I've seen pollution where the sky is brown, for days and weeks on end. I've seen people live but cannot exercise as there is no room and no green grass to walk on and the only chance of outdoor activities is going shopping and i've covered my skin in the smallest rain shower so that the acid rain doesn't burn me.

This is all in a dynamic and so called wealthy cities and states - and i didn't like it. I felt miserable for living in these so called wealthy cities.

I much prefer the clean air - the knowledge that our tap water is good, the ability in being able to walk in a straight line while being a pedestrian and more importantly - i enjoy good quality lifestyle with space around me.

Sadly, i see, that due to the Australian tendency to squeeze people in the metro areas (and the government's ability to centralise everything and ignore the outer regions), that any population increase will diminish a good lifestyle.


g
 
new cities is the answer. can start by scrapping the states and redrawing the boundaries. can't see that happening, so problems
 
or rejuvenating the large regional centres that also sit on good transport hubs!!!!

If only the government invested in railways and other transport infrastructure (but not just roads).
 
AU population to increase 65% by 2049

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26089820-421,00.html

What housing crash for God's sake?

This is really no brainer:

1. Property prices are going ot explode within commutable distance of capital cities.
2. The only way to create new housing stock will be rezoning to higher density, and Rezoning will be prioritised to utilise existing infrastructure.

That translates into crucial criteria when you chose your investments today:

1. Buy Torrens/ Old title where possible. Strata title/community title at the moment is a waste of your borrowing capacity
2. It is going to be hot in places under 2 hours travel from CBD (For Sydney - triangle Newcatle - Katoomba - Wollongong). It is going to be white hot in areas under 1 hour travel from CBD (Sydney - triangle Berowra - Penrith - Hurstville)
3. Withing these areas:
a. Corridors along major arterials - (M2, M4, M7, F3 ,etc) - 1km wide.
b. Areas within 1 km diameter from the stations where Intercity trains stop
c. Same as (b.), but with decent commuter parking - increase radius to 3-5 km
d. watch future infrastructure developments like Metro Line
e. Pay attention to the battleaxe block of land. They are currently underpriced (which is going to be not for very long) and provide for an opportunity to buy front house some time down the track.
 
Cool, so if median Sydney house is now $500,000, in 2049 it should either be:

$8,000,000 (2x / 10yr)
or
$26,250,731 (2x / 7yr)

Let's go half way and say it'll be $17,125,365.

-Ian

p.s. I wonder if this forum and this post will be around in 2049 (when I'm 71).
 
Tele-kinetic transmission

.............. I wonder if this forum and this post will be around in 2049 (when I'm 71).

Of course....a thought and a wiggle/twitch of the nose.........Samantha had it right on Bewitched. :p

We shall be posting tele-kinetically ;)

I intend to be around.....in 2049 I will only be 89 :D. I will admit that I will be past the half-way point by then.
 
Ignoring all the other scarily gruesome things in the rest of your post:

I've seen families all crammed in a minute apartment and sharing bedrooms. I've seen 5 person families in HK with 3 teenage mixed gender kids sharing 2 small bedrooms in bunks

Here, there's a definition of "overcrowded" that I recall seeing some time ago. It goes something along the lines of one adult or couple per room, 1 teenager per room, up to 2 school aged children of the same gender per room, up to 2 preschool children of mixed gender in the same room. Something like that, anyway.

Most countries in the world (and our more remote indigenous communities) would be lucky to come even *close* to those standards.
 
good for property prices, so it has taken 200 years to build the homes we have now, and we need to build the same amount in 40 years, thats interesting, (quietly giggles inside) i hope my building carrer, is a good choice,
 
Interesting thoughts Dodo. Do you think it will become common to travel 2 hours to work each way? Are there any other cities around the world where the sprawl has made this common?

It has been common for years. Back in 1996 I was inspired to buy home in Gosford because in my company (48 people) 2 guys travelled every day from/to Newcastle, and 3 ladies from/to Wollongong.
 
good for property prices, so it has taken 200 years to build the homes we have now, and we need to build the same amount in 40 years, thats interesting, (quietly giggles inside) i hope my building carrer, is a good choice,

Excellent observation. The only problem is that I have not come up with it myself.:D
 
I see the media (and government) have renewed the population growth figures. Up something like 68% in the next 30 odd years leading to a population of about 35million.

No mention of any extra building programs (or water/infrastructure solutions). So it seems the future may be ripe for further development in key places. Having said that, i think any developer worth their salt would or should be looking at sustainability and eco-friendly developments...


Thanks

g

BRING IT ON!

Project 1080.

The project 10 IPs in 80 mths.
 
Sadly, i see, that due to the Australian tendency to squeeze people in the metro areas (and the government's ability to centralise everything and ignore the outer regions), that any population increase will diminish a good lifestyle.


g

I am all for increasing density of population. I understand that lots of Asian cities are taken to the max but say European cities are much more dense and the quality of live seems fine to me.

I might be biased since I am from Europe but it drives me mad that if you are not living in the CBD you have to get everywhere by car because a) everything is so far away and b) public transport is rubbish.
 
Some good posts on this thread!

I agree it's all good for property and we are surrounded by opportunities ATM. I am not convinced we will be able to change the never ending population growth dogma - it is entrenched in every public discourse so we may as well make the most of it.

But like TC and GG I lament it all the same. The costs to amenity and lifestyle from this ever increasing population / economic growth just aren't worth it IMO. I much prefer a quarter acre block for the kids to run around on, clean air and less traffic. Happy to trade that with a lower income. Find me someone to vote for on that score!

Onward, I guess...
 
Population growth is good for the economy, and for economies of scale.
This country was built on population growth mainly from immigration.
So now that we are here we should say stop the population growth?
It's like bulldozing trees to build a house, and then complaining about the people down the road destroying the natural habitat of the cute little animals & vermin.
It's what gives Australia some characteristics of an emerging economy, which is why our rates are higher.
There are still plenty of 1 acre blocks out there HiEquity where's there's lots of peace & quiet :)

The other issue is that the forecasters don't see changes in trends, only what would happen if a trend continues when they predict the demand for land & housing.
But if we follow the rest of the world, I'd say the trend will be to house more ppl x km sq, and more ppl per dwelling, rather than sprawling out into the bush.
Of course the urban sprawl won't just stop, but the concentration into the cities will increase imo.
Just think 15-20yrs ago, who lived in Sydney cbd? Not many.
 
I'm completely against this. Anyway, if it happens it does.



What properties will go up the most?

I think most of the people will be crammed into the existing cities, and especially Sydney and Melbourne. Sydney's going to 7 million according to one report I read this morning. So it's a no brainer. Newcastle to Woolongong would do well.

I think everywhere will do well. With 60% more people consuming imports, we will need 60% more exports. These 14 million new people aren't going to be working in factories manufacturing stuff to export. It won't come from agriculture, our ag exports will decrease as we consume more food. The extra exports will have to come from mining. So the rural areas that are currently booming from mining will boom even more. In my area there is a new tunnel going under the Liverpool Range. It will be dual line right through, with one rail line dedicated to coal. My area is going to boom for years and years just from this one bit of infrastructure alone. There will be hundreds of workers coming in to town.

That means acreage will boom too. Miners love acreage. Big regionals, as people continue to move away from the rat race will do well. Idillic lifestyle properties will be even more valued. There will be more people with more money looking for an oasis to get away from the city. That 100 acres with a river, patch of rainforest, and elevated views will become priceless.

Holly crap we will be in trouble when there is no more minerals and coal to be mined, or gas to be drilled, and half our farm land is dug up, but I won't be around then. It will be someone elses problem.



Hard to see how property investing anywhere will not be good in the decades ahead.


See ya's.
 
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