Possibility of a Greek default in next week

in for a penny, in for a pound, err... euro.

I doubt they have the appetite to go further into this

That's what people were saying back in 1956 with the coal agreement that started the whole unification thing off. But what we forget here is how haunting the memory of WWII is throughout Europe. It wasn't just any war, and its horror will never truly go away until Europe becomes one country. That's what I think is ultimately driving the Euro project and why - no matter how many crashes along the way - it will eventually reach completion.
 
That's what I think is ultimately driving the Euro project and why - no matter how many crashes along the way - it will eventually reach completion.

You mean Germany domination of the region? Seems to be the default position in European conflict :)
 
That's what people were saying back in 1956 with the coal agreement that started the whole unification thing off. But what we forget here is how haunting the memory of WWII is throughout Europe. It wasn't just any war, and its horror will never truly go away until Europe becomes one country. That's what I think is ultimately driving the Euro project and why - no matter how many crashes along the way - it will eventually reach completion.
As horrible the memories of WW1 and WW2 might be, Europe doesn't need a single currency to prevent European nations for going to war against each other. Times and mentalities have changed since then ....
 
deflation of the Euro - parity with the USD.

AUD to slip to 88-94c USD

USSA seen as "safe haven" while the EU implodes. Australia to a lesser extent.

Au to get a good hammering - maybe 1450 again, maybe even 1390. calm before the storm - i'm buying all i can because whent he dust settles, USD will be looked at very hard and gold will move like there's no tomorrow.

regardless, dont believe all you read...

https://rt.com/news/hollande-merkel-meeting-berlin-342/
 
Here's an idea - Kick Germany out of the euro! Problem solved, ja?

The much easier and much more logical solution is that suggested by Washington financier and hedge fund manager John Prout -- get Germany back to the D Mark. At one fell swoop, the remaining euro zone countries would become competitive via devaluation of the euro versus the D Mark, and this without the grinding pain of austerity. The pressure and need for a giant rescue fund would disappear. At the same time, Germany would lose its somewhat artificial competitiveness and would automatically have higher income, consumption, and inflation as a consequence of a D Mark that would be stronger than the present euro.
germany_should_quit_the_euro
 
While this is a massively complex problem, the behaviour of the big financials angers me more than the free ride public service workers.

For all the easy pensions, public service freebies etc there is also the complicity of Goldman Sachs in all of this and the World Bank,IMF.

I may have a few of the specifics wrong here, but Goldman made a huge trade a few years back which produced rather large losses (odd for GS). I think it was euro v yen. It turns out that they did this because they were informed by the new Greek Govt that their deficit was >3%, more like 10%. Gldmans loss was then somehow worked to mask the massive deficit which could well have brought this crisis on way back then. Years passed and debts and the good life continued until the GFC and the deficit and poor shape of the Greek economy was fully exposed.

So I think debt restructuring is just a fancy way for big finance to further bleed greece and recoup any monies they have lost.

Would it be possible to go back to the Drachma and take the Icelandic treatment?

Look at it another way, MM.

If people have no jobs and no money, they can't buy stuff. If this happens to enough people across the region, the economy of Europe will shut down, and the rest of the developed world will very likely follow.

So, while it would be foolish to not make people pay their bills, it would be self-defeating to starve them to death in the name of doing so. The people must be allowed to eat while they pay back what they owe.

In other words, system-wide debt restucturing is necessary. Alone, however, this won't of course save the Euro. In the end only a United States of Europe can do that. But a stop-gap economic measure that could probably work until the politics in Europe catches up (i.e. in a generation or so) would be region-wide fiscal unification. Or until Europe just gives up the Euro project, of course.
 
Would be OK for the rest of Europe but the German economy would go down the gurgler, so I don't think they'll go for that

True, of course. But this 'notion' of ejecting Germany sharply clarifies the problem, and I think, the stark alternative facing Europe -

Whether Greece stays in euro club is not up to the Greeks (as those planning its expulsion are advertising): It's entirely up to the French.

If France sides with Germany's Merkel-led Christian Democrats, the southern periphery falls out of the euro club in stages (starting with Greece, but then Portugal, then Spain and then Italy), ultimately leaving Germany effectively in charge of France. (For which Hollande would forever be known as Hollandaise, or something similarly derisory.)

But, if France sides with Germany's Kraft-led Social Democrats, i.e. forcing wholesale concessions from Merkel on the terms of the Greek bailout package and future aid, then the entire southern periphery could expect to get stuctured bailout packages financed under a viable ECB-issued Eurobond, and France would reign alongside Germany as equal leader of Europe. (For which Hollande would forever be feted the modern Napoleon, or similar.)

Neither option is predestined, the former is the lazier, and if the latter were to succeed eventual European federalisation would be explicitly back on the agenda. Anyway, that's my take on things.
 
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We've seen a huge shift in perception over the past week.

It seems that everyone is now expecting Greece to default.

We've got Australian banks preparing for it. The major US banks are preparing for it and spinning their opinion on what will happen as a result.

The problem is with such a tangled web of debt no one really knows the consequences. Which banks will have unexpected exposure and force the next round of bailouts...
 
Opinion in Greece starts to turn - armageddon may be averted!

If these opinion polls in Greece are true, then the worm is turning against the initial Syriza/anti-bailout euphoria.

I can say this quite categorically, I know the Greeks don't want to leave the EURO. In the end the majority will accept the price being paid for it.....Just......
 
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We've seen a huge shift in perception over the past week.

It seems that everyone is now expecting Greece to default.

We've got Australian banks preparing for it. The major US banks are preparing for it and spinning their opinion on what will happen as a result.

The problem is with such a tangled web of debt no one really knows the consequences. Which banks will have unexpected exposure and force the next round of bailouts...

tend to agree, the spruikers are still trying to bring the suckers in - the party's over, maybe all things happen for a reason, my house will be cheaper in six months time. :)
 
Hello from Euro land!

Im in Nth Germany today, and it just seems same old same old.... I can't see any signs of financial crisis or recession here
AirBus (Hamburg) have an 8 year wait for a new plane if you ordered one today, and VW (Wolfsburg) are still making tens of thousands of new cars a day:eek:
Having said that the TV is full of financial disasters...
I hope this keeps you updated...
Cheers
SeafordSunshine
 
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