possibility of no growth for the next 10 years

I have access to a sales data portal and I am always doing comparisons against suburbs to see what growth they have had.

The question I always seem to ask myself is... why does every chart look like there is no possibility for capital gains over the next 10 years. It seems to have been swallowed up in the last 10 years.

While I am glad to be part of the last 10 years growth can we really see property continually growing at this type of rate?

See the graph attached to see what I am talking about.

opinions and insights welcome.

Cheers
Rick
 

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are prices really the same in 2009 as 1995? what a shocker of an area. is there a pattern of subdivision or somehting that is distorting the numberS?

given that there has been 14 years of no growth then yes I think the extrapolation is straight forward
 
are prices really the same in 2009 as 1995? what a shocker of an area. is there a pattern of subdivision or somehting that is distorting the numberS?

given that there has been 14 years of no growth then yes I think the extrapolation is straight forward

I think the line is the median price and the bars are number of houses sold- would I be correct in my assumption?
 
I'd suggest that generally speaking, there won't be anywhere near as much growth in the next ten years as there has in the last. Well chosen properties will get a bit, but not heaps. Of course, we need to remember that if we get ten years of stuff all growth, there will need to be an upward correction after that...
 
Property doubles every ten years!

Certainly didn't in Bris in the '90s, at least not on Ricksta's graphs, and I suggest that would be true of all Qld with the possible exception of Cairns.

In the '90s there was no "net" and no property forums. All our exposure to property was local except for the few who travelled interstate, and air-fares were high in those days too.

So that's why I didn't "believe" as readily as you youngsters who had not been property owners far a numbing decade. I also believe that things revert to mean and usually overshoot on the way. Was that why we overshot "fair value" after a decade of below normal growth?
 
I think you will get growth...but you will need to work for it.

In the next 10 years...you will need to :

1. Invest in areas where there is infrastructure going in....no just invest in overpriced Bluechip areas in the major cities.

2. Smart renovations will add equity.

3. You need to think outside of the square.

4. Continually assess and re-invent your strategies....it maybe as a simple a just a small twist to make profitable deals.

5. Cash flow is king.....you need to plan to increase a property with a 5-6% yield to something that will return 8-10% in 2-3 years.

The last 6 months have been great for me as most of my portfolio is FHB territory.....I suspect this will change.
 
nice list sash - I will add this to my how too's

I agree infrastructure is a major player...today however it let me down... no power for the trains to run in sou-west brisbane so I have to work from home.

wish they broke down more often:):)



I think you will get growth...but you will need to work for it.

In the next 10 years...you will need to :

1. Invest in areas where there is infrastructure going in....no just invest in overpriced Bluechip areas in the major cities.

2. Smart renovations will add equity.

3. You need to think outside of the square.

4. Continually assess and re-invent your strategies....it maybe as a simple a just a small twist to make profitable deals.

5. Cash flow is king.....you need to plan to increase a property with a 5-6% yield to something that will return 8-10% in 2-3 years.

The last 6 months have been great for me as most of my portfolio is FHB territory.....I suspect this will change.
 
Well it happened in the 90s after the mother of all price booms. Pretty much flat till '98 when it just started creeping up and then was in full swing by 2000.

can be long periods with no growth and i think we will enter one after the FHBG finishes. Good thing is tho, rents usually rise according in this period.
 
Well it happened in the 90s after the mother of all price booms. Pretty much flat till '98 when it just started creeping up and then was in full swing by 2000.

can be long periods with no growth and i think we will enter one after the FHBG finishes. Good thing is tho, rents usually rise according in this period.

there are several risks tho that could see house prices start rising again..

- the weight of money sitting on the sidelines waiting for the boost to go. I think there will be a large net inflow of cash to the market. FHBs will still be around as well

- the generally improving economy

- the sheer scale of the resources boom that is forming up now and population growth that will follow

- lack of supply (due to credit rationing).

I hate to say it but it's hard not to see 'the mother of all booms' eventuating
 
there are several risks tho that could see house prices start rising again... I hate to say it but it's hard not to see 'the mother of all booms' eventuating
Stop it! ;) I'm still accumulating properties and would love Evand's model of flat prices and slowly rising rental yields to play out. I'd like a good solid chunk of properties in my portfolio before the next boom kicks in. Another 5-10 years of no growth would suit me just fine...

Cheers,
Michael
 
Wishful thinking Michael....from where I sit....the damned things I am looking at are moving up not down.....;)

Stop it! ;) I'm still accumulating properties and would love Evand's model of flat prices and slowly rising rental yields to play out. I'd like a good solid chunk of properties in my portfolio before the next boom kicks in. Another 5-10 years of no growth would suit me just fine...

Cheers,
Michael
 
Wishful thinking Michael....from where I sit....the damned things I am looking at are moving up not down.....;)
Yeah, I know. A mate of mine at work just bought an IP in Melbourne and the bank revalued his PPOR which he had an LOC against up to $900K from his $690K purchase price just a few years back. Its in West Rhyde which has had a nice little run recently.

Ah well, at least the Gross Realisation on my townhouse build is looking better by the day... ;)

Cheers,
Michael
 
Ahhh..Michael...i actually thought you made a post without mentioning your development plans. Oh well....almost...LOL

And sash, mate, we're talking 10 years ahead, not now. Or did you miss the title of the thread?

Do you guys think this would be happening without the FHBG and 3% cash rates. Its an artificially created rally and every time i've seen one (government intervention i mean) the results aren't nice after it. Wake up guys and ease up on the hubris, its getting boring. :D

Yeah, I know. A mate of mine at work just bought an IP in Melbourne and the bank revalued his PPOR which he had an LOC against up to $900K from his $690K purchase price just a few years back. Its in West Rhyde which has had a nice little run recently.

Ah well, at least the Gross Realisation on my townhouse build is looking better by the day... ;)

Cheers,
Michael
 
Ahhh..Michael...i actually thought you made a post without mentioning your development plans. Oh well....almost...LOL
Hahaha! Fair cop!!

My investment "strategy" is a bit lop-sided at the moment... Bit bored just waiting for it to get going so I can talk about something else for a change. :D

Mea Culpa.

Cheers,
Michael
 
I still believe people give more credit to the market 'tinkering' (eg FHBG etc) than it's due. Sure it doesn't hurt, and no doubt would have brought some FHBs purchases forward, but i don't think it's effected the markets that much. Not the markets I watch anyway.

Not to mention that there will still be a FHBG (albeit lower), plus there will be how many thousands of 20 something kids who are only ready to buy their first house in 2010, then more in 2011, 2012 etc. The current boost didn't rush forward the first purchase of a 17yo, demand from him and all those in his age bracket won't hit until what, 2014?
 
Evand...all I can say is that one day the force will be with you.....one day.

Till then reside on the darkside.....:p

Evand....did you not know that we live in the luck country. If you know what your are doing you can make money in any market. You just have to be prepared to invest around the country.

As for your neck of the wood....the Central Coast....prices in the low to mid end are moving nicely. No softening....just look at the rental queues there.!

Ahhh..Michael...i actually thought you made a post without mentioning your development plans. Oh well....almost...LOL

And sash, mate, we're talking 10 years ahead, not now. Or did you miss the title of the thread?

Do you guys think this would be happening without the FHBG and 3% cash rates. Its an artificially created rally and every time i've seen one (government intervention i mean) the results aren't nice after it. Wake up guys and ease up on the hubris, its getting boring. :D
 
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