Predictions for 2012 from Peter Martin

[Andrew_A]

A wonderfully insightful list of predictions for 2012, I agree with most!

1. A lot of things will happen that no forecaster thought to include in their predictions for 2012. These events will be the obvious consequences of the current economic and political environment. So obvious, in fact, that they weren’t included in the predictions.
2. Many things won’t happen that forecasters did include in their predictions for 2012. This will be a result of unforeseen circumstances and six sigma events, annual anomalies that crop up one in a million years.
3. A small number of the vast number of predictions about 2012 will randomly come true and the predictors will be proclaimed gurus. This will be despite the fact that it was their 1000thprediction and the first one they got right.
4. All predictions will be adjusted throughout the year so that the forecaster’s final prognostications, announced on Christmas Eve, will be very close to accurate.
5. Those fund managers that outperform for the year will cite their skills, systems, intelligence and uncanny ability to time the market as the reasons for their outperformance. While acknowledging that past returns are no guarantee of future returns, the past returns will be included in advertising materials in very large font.
6. Those that underperform will cite the randomness of markets and that any one bad year will obviously be followed by a good one, because underlying it all they have superior skills, systems, intelligence and uncanny ability to time the market. Marketing materials will include performance statistics over a more appropriate time frame.
7. Dividends will be more important than capital gains. Unless the market goes up a lot. If the market goes up a lot, capital gains will be more important than dividends.
8. Every single CEO in the country will be in the top quartile of CEOs in the country. They will get paid accordingly.
9. “They” and “People familiar with the matter” will continue their crucial role in the world’s affairs. That is because they know everything.
10. Finally, perhaps most importantly, markets will fluctuate. We expect the All Ordinaries to go up, down or sideways in both the first and second halves of the year.

Peter Martin: source
The Age article

 

[Bon]

hahaha, one of the best I've seen yet!

 

[Aaron Sice]

heres a more realistic scenario.

eurozone holds off printng until theyre close to depression. all pms will slip. usd to rally in the face of it and aud to slip.

eurozone realises the only way to maintain status quo is to maintain status quo, and out roll the printing presses to monetise the debt. bond yields rise inthe eurozone and the flight away form the usd begins, pms and aud rally. another stimulus here.

the destabilisation of the usd puts gold backed imf-issued sdrs on the table for international trade. pms spike and aud sgd soars, talking 116+. energy prices spike.

timeframe - 3 years, mid to late 2015. property to do well here before the aud rally as smart money moves into the currency tied to resource prices. this will create an unsustainable bubble in our local currency, and property to take off again as a short against our currency, just like aussies are doing in the usa.

of course our market isnt as liquid, so a few thousand aussies overseas is a pish in the ocean, but tens of thousands of overseas investors in our market is an iceblock in a teacup.

 

[Aaron Sice]

.....and no, i dont think its a good thing. bubbles, especially the triple bubble this country is going to be hit with, are not healthy.

buy now all you want, but just dont buy into the hype at the top. if anyone in perth remembers jul and aug 2007......

 

[.toe]

A wonderfully insightful list of predictions for 2012, I agree with most!
Peter Martin: source
The Age article

Haha. On ABC 24 last night, 6 economists recount 20 predictions that each of them made at the beginning of 2011. Of 120 predictions, zero of them have been correct. That's right, nada, zilch, zip!

 

[Edge7]

And, the stock market has predicted 9 of the last 5 recessions.