Would anyone like to speculate what will happen in the next 12 month? There are so many poor economic signs not sure if I still want to be in the property market.
Predictions on the Canberra market
- Thread starter nomorework55
- Start date
As mildly bearish as I am on the outlook for the rest of Australian property over the next year or so, Canberra is the one place where auction clearance rates are still over 60% and stock levels are not increasing rapidly like many other places. I reckon the only way Canberra will go down over the next year is if it catches a cough from the rest of the country's impending cold.
Hi nomorework
I like the username
Herron Todd White's month in review for December rated Canberra's housing and unit markets as being at the "rising market" stage of the property cycle. It is the only capital city at present with this rating. Check it out here - http://www.htw.com.au/Month_in_Review/Month-in-Review-December-2010.pdf
The buying frenzy that I personally witnessed in Canberra during the first half of the year seems to have slown down a bit. Real estate agents I've spoken with have confirmed this - they feel that it's a combination of the recent rate rise and Christmas being only a few weeks.
I have confidence in the Canberra market and I'm about to exchange on my next Canberra property.
Cheers
Jamie
Inner city stock is probably about as expensive as it will get for a while. New land releases (especially Molonglo Valley) are small blocks and damn expensive (around $1000 per sq metre of land). The city has sprawled considerably over the past ten years or so, and I think there'll be plenty of demand for existing stock when the market realises just how expensive the better located new stock will really be (you won't be able to buy a 4 bedroom house for under about $650k, I reckon).
In short, there is still heaps of demand, much of it from people with good, reliable incomes. I don't think you'll see big spikes (except in very localised areas), but demand and reliable incomes will prevent any serious price drops.
In short, there is still heaps of demand, much of it from people with good, reliable incomes. I don't think you'll see big spikes (except in very localised areas), but demand and reliable incomes will prevent any serious price drops.
$1000 per sq metre sounds just nuts.
Why is land in Canberra so expensive? It's surrounded by farmland worth $5000 per hectare, or 50 cents per sq metre. And it's not like Sydney or Melbourne where it can be an hour to get to work so people will pay exorbitant amounts to be close to the CBD. It wouldn't take long to get from the edge of Canberra to the CBD.
Why wouldn't people buy a small farm just out of town? Have 20 hectares and some horses and stuff? Still just a short drive to work. Better than being ripped off senseless?
See ya's.
I'll respond to your questions and comments with one word: availability.
The ACT government does a crap job of releasing land in accordance with demand, and in developing services needed. They also get a large chunk of their operating revenue from land sales, and manipulate the market accordingly. This is unlikely to change in the short to medium term. Couple this with a market full of buyers with fat wallets (yay public service) and prices for new stock are very high. We also have a shortage of builders and tradies.
Thanks.
So buyers in Canberra are punting that land availability stays tight?
I suppose it will too, if it's controlled by the government. There is still a bit of risk there though. I wouldn't take that risk. There are too many options everywhere else where supply of land is controlled by natural shortages, not some public servant sitting behind a desk and computer being paid to limit supply.
See ya's.
So buyers in Canberra are punting that land availability stays tight?
I suppose it will too, if it's controlled by the government. There is still a bit of risk there though. I wouldn't take that risk. There are too many options everywhere else where supply of land is controlled by natural shortages, not some public servant sitting behind a desk and computer being paid to limit supply.
See ya's.
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The issue is that we have years of undersupply ahead of us due to the govt not bringing new land to market at the required pace for some time (and now they can't keep up). And even if land was released in large quantities now, there still aren't the builders and tradies to construct. And as I wrote previously. there's an imperativeto keep prices up, as this is where a lot of govt revenue comes from.
We're safe for a while, I reckon.
That said, I ONLY buy in what I consider to be very good Canberra locations (and in QBN, where prices have been unreasonably cheap). I don't trust those outer Canberra suburbs at all.
The Canberra market is an artificially high economy sustained by deliberate political decisions.
Land is released at a pathetically slow pace, which drives an artificial market and coupled with the inflated job economy created by government departments, it combines to create a 'mezzanine economy'.
The only way it will falter is the same way it is sustained... a shift in government policy towards regional planning (land availability) and federal expenditure policies that create the 1000's of public service jobs which drives the average income beyond the rest of the nation.
Since these 2 issues are self serving (in the government context) I doubt either will change any time soon... I like Canberra and have lived there on 3 separate occasions over the years, and none of the fundamentals have ever changed in my experience and I doubt they ever will.
IMHO, you can not compare the Canberra market with the rest of country as it is quite unique.
Land is released at a pathetically slow pace, which drives an artificial market and coupled with the inflated job economy created by government departments, it combines to create a 'mezzanine economy'.
The only way it will falter is the same way it is sustained... a shift in government policy towards regional planning (land availability) and federal expenditure policies that create the 1000's of public service jobs which drives the average income beyond the rest of the nation.
Since these 2 issues are self serving (in the government context) I doubt either will change any time soon... I like Canberra and have lived there on 3 separate occasions over the years, and none of the fundamentals have ever changed in my experience and I doubt they ever will.
IMHO, you can not compare the Canberra market with the rest of country as it is quite unique.
Good thing incomes keep going up then. Each year it seems a lot of APS employees
1) move up a pay increment at their APS level; and
2) receive a 3 or 4% payrise via their collective agreement.
Yes, there has been limited land release. But then there's across the border. In the last 20 years, Jerrabomberra has gone from empty fields to a suburb almost filled. And there's been much new stock around Karabar in that time. (Population in Jerra has been forecast to decline slightly in the future- possibly due to the number of children growing up and leaving home).
According to this article
According to this article
Another issue that will cause the prices of properties to go up is the Gershin report (sp?). This report stated that all govt depts. get rid of IT contractors and instead hire the contract staff as PS staff.
Problem is that now there is a shortage of IT contractors and this will get worse over the next year. Because of that this has been negative growth of IT contractors into the ACT over the last year. Now Govt. Depts. and the body shops that provide them are screaming for contractors.
Over the next year there will be a surge of IT contractors arriving into Canberra and will want to buy property.
Problem is that now there is a shortage of IT contractors and this will get worse over the next year. Because of that this has been negative growth of IT contractors into the ACT over the last year. Now Govt. Depts. and the body shops that provide them are screaming for contractors.
Over the next year there will be a surge of IT contractors arriving into Canberra and will want to buy property.
why would you think they would leave canberra ?
folk that dont live here just dont get it , ??
Brother retired last year after 40 years in the public service, left as quick as he could, guess he just didn't get it.
Cheers
Pete
Because Canberra is a crap hole. I don't know why anyone would stay in this joke of a place if it wasn't for work. Go somewhere decent along the coast.
Or take advantage of poor people in melbourne or sydney (and by that I mean take advantage of what the cheap retail and hospitality industries). Frigging $4 for a coffe in the ACT.
Canberra's a great place to live. Quiet, low crime, short commutes, easy access to parks and waterways, less than 2 hours from both coast and snow.
