Projected capital growth areas in Qld

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From: Dan D


Hi all,

I've got myself a Residex report on projected capital growth for the top 100 postcodes in Brisbane.

A few oddities in there. I noted that while the inner city perimeter postcodes had fairly mundane growth for the next 3 and 5 years, based on historical performance, the corridors along the Sunshine and Gold coasts and some outlying suburban patches show some quite spectacular capital growth expectations.

Looking a little closer at those spectacular numbers, it is apparent that those areas are in fact new and in progress residential developments, as well as proposed developments with the sod as yet unturned, but plans approved and even streets already outlined in UBD. Question: is the historical growth of those developments due to developers moving in and pushing up land prices? I would suggest that this indeed the case since we are talking about previously dead regional country areas, and which are still dead ( in terms of current population numbers).

The projections in areas of new developments must be taking into account that there will be a demand for housing there which will then produce the expected capital growth. I wonder however where the buyers are supposed to come from and where will they be working to service their mortgages? The Sunshine Coast hinterland is not exactly full of career opportunities. Brisbane generally is not a job hunters paradise.

I'd be very cautious about investing in those new developments.

Does anyone have any thoughts on this? Am I misinterpreting the growth projections? Am I missing out on something?

Dan
 
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Reply: 1
From: Tibor Bode


Hi Dan,

getting the RESIDEX report is the right direction, and while I also use their report this is only one of the due diligence source for me. I purchased a couple of properties in the Logan area (outer Brissie) and personally I would not be scared to buy even new developments in the area. I don't do it as to my personal strategy and risk mitigation new developments do not fit at this time. I need the profit whatever I can make, can not afford to hand the bulk of it to the developer. But it does not mean, I would not buy the right property at the right place for the right price. It is worth to consider some other reports from SE QLD. The QLD governments statistical department can provide a whole lot info. Unemployment is not so bad in SE QLD as in entire QLD. There are (and will be more) people considering / moving into the area for lifestyle / financial / other reasons and this will be going on for a while. The Government (in spite of all my total distrust and dislike of pollies) seems that quite switched on as far as investment and business support concerned. Infrastructure is there and in spite of all false belief, land is not unlimited in all areas and specific areas already running out of land. I know you can use green fields and land fills, but it takes time and money, just as any infrastructure build up does. I personally believe (and I put my money where my mouth is) that SEQ will outperform almost all areas in the next 3 years as an investment. It is only my opinion (3 years time I will be willing to share the facts).

Tibor
 
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Reply: 1.1
From: Dan D


Thanks, Tibor, for your insight. Will check out Qld govt stats as well.

Dan
 
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Reply: 1.2
From: Ross Sondergeld


Hi Tibor,


Projected capital growth areas in Qld


Tibor said, "Getting the RESIDEX report is the right direction."


I'd also recommend the Midwood report (see API mag).

And a BLIN map from the department of natural resources (qld). (* AO map
with land size, last sale price, sale date, and zoning if appicable -- aim
for a 2km by 2km scale.)



Tibor said, "I personally believe (and I put my money where my mouth is)
that SEQ will outperform almost all areas in the next 3 years as an
investment. It is only my opinion (3 years time I will be willing to share
the facts)."


I totally agree Tibor.

SHIT, I remember getting burned by a few forum members about a year and a
bit ago (for prospecting?)... because i said a certain area was about to
enter a growth phase.

What happend... Prices doubled in 12 months. $160k to $300k.

Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Brisbane. HOT SPOTS for next 8 years!

Just DON'T buy anything new... and pick a property that's unique.



- Ross... trying to keep his mouth shut!

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