Property Cycle Clock - Where are we right now?

Not sure about fringe H&I areas.

But the rest of the metro is quite hot, except for the north. Some value in Brunswick, Coburg, Preston, Reservoir. Little in west. Parts of inner city maybe. Rest pretty hot.

Just had coffee with a mate today - he was reminding me how he offered me a 1500sqm house behind the Tan in South Yarra 2 years ago for $4m or so. Last week the bank value came in at $9m. Throw in some permits for a few townhouses, $12m easy.

It's a good time to start planning a few sales, but there's probably a bit more to run as the nation switches from Sydney to Melbourne next 6 months.
 
This place was purchased in 2007, so there is a decent profit margin. Purchase price was $385k. What makes a sale attractive is an old house in worse condition with the same block size sold around the corner recently for $625k. It's a shame I only own 50% :p

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-heidelberg+heights-118935647

Potentially, I may make more from developing and selling down the track but it seems like less hassle to cash out without doing the work :p

It is a big decision for me to sell a development site without building because I have always wanted to build. That said, I am concerned about the logistics of building in Melbourne from Perth, particularly as it would only be my second build.

Have you considered organising plans and permits, potentially could make more money depending on how many you can get on the site etc?

I am currently doing this on a recent purchase in Melb, am hoping to submit plans and permits for 5 townhouses. I see this as low risk if there is demand and low stock and still stacks up for the builder.


Mtr
 
Not sure about fringe H&I areas.

But the rest of the metro is quite hot, except for the north. Some value in Brunswick, Coburg, Preston, Reservoir. Little in west. Parts of inner city maybe. Rest pretty hot.

Just had coffee with a mate today - he was reminding me how he offered me a 1500sqm house behind the Tan in South Yarra 2 years ago for $4m or so. Last week the bank value came in at $9m. Throw in some permits for a few townhouses, $12m easy.

It's a good time to start planning a few sales, but there's probably a bit more to run as the nation switches from Sydney to Melbourne next 6 months.

Yikes.
I think the market switched from Syd to Melb a few months ago, market spike, trending up, nice:)
 
Woodlea Mirvac? http://somersoft.com/forums/images/smilies/tongue.gif

Lets say I have pre-locked the deal..it is H&L...I have also bought a block of land in Geelong...based on what the developer has done in other estates...I should be 50k ahead by the time it is ready to build on. And the supply there is very low...so I would envisage a 100k profit on a 300k H&L package in about 18 months time...with a 5k deposit for 8 months followed by a 6 month construction period.
 
Yikes.
I think the market switched from Syd to Melb a few months ago, market spike, trending up, nice:)

Don't think the big switch has happened yet. Syd still powering on, Melb is strong, but not as strong. Big switch has primarily happened in outer east and inner east I feel.

Colleague just sold a property for 45% more than what he paid for it last year to Syd investor in private sale. Should be more to come in next few months, once these guys go back and gloat about how cheap Melb is.

They'll move onto inner west and inner city next I feel.
 
Have you considered organising plans and permits, potentially could make more money depending on how many you can get on the site etc?
Yes. But I wasn't sure what I should go for. If I built for myself, I would do 4x2's because it was to be a long term hold to rent and there are very few 4x2's in the area resulting in unmet demand for this product for rent. However, a purchaser might want to do something more like three townhouses. Three of this size would fit on my block:

http://www.domain.com.au/property/for-rent/townhouse/vic/heidelberg-heights/?adid=8202539

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-townhouse-vic-heidelberg+heights-119385551

or this:

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-townhouse-vic-heidelberg+heights-119329587

In that scenario, there would be three x two storey townhouses, maybe a 3x2 at the front and two 2x2's at the back. Number three could even be single storey, which was done here:

http://www.realestate.com.au/property-unit-vic-heidelberg+heights-106840382

Alternately, they could be three single storey like these down the road:

http://www.domain.com.au/property/for-rent/house/vic/heidelberg-heights/?adid=9044625

My feeling is that three two-storey townhouses (3x2, 3x2, 2x2) would be most attractive. I might have to do a bit more work on that one.

I am currently doing this on a recent purchase in Melb, am hoping to submit plans and permits for 5 townhouses. I see this as low risk if there is demand and low stock and still stacks up for the builder.
Do you mind sharing a rough estimate of cost for plans and permits?

A concern that I would have is that a purchaser might think my plans are rubbish. Or is that not the point? Am I just demonstrating that three 2-storey townhouses can be developed on the block? Then it would be up to the purchaser to finalise plans they are happy with?
 
if you get THE best use out of existing land and go for max allowed dwelling on block (along with what market wants) ..i don't think ..you will go wrong.


if you are going to get plans and permits together, may as well weigh out option of selling of the plan.

if you can sell off the plan, you may not really care if market goes up or down...

I have three on the go in Melbourne

Two of mine ( 4 townhouse and 3 story apartments )
one of client

in the pipeline.. and plan is to give a red hot go to sell off the plan...
 
Don't think the big switch has happened yet. Syd still powering on, Melb is strong, but not as strong. Big switch has primarily happened in outer east and inner east I feel.

Colleague just sold a property for 45% more than what he paid for it last year to Syd investor in private sale. Should be more to come in next few months, once these guys go back and gloat about how cheap Melb is.

They'll move onto inner west and inner city next I feel.

Right, let's see how many new threads on Melb start popping up, problem is everyone will be fighting for the same property.

Perhaps those looking should start focussing on areas that will catch up, ie north as you mentioned, west already on the move, east going gangbusters
 
North is truly the last place. Too late to get into anything now. A little bit of value left in west and inner city. East long gone.

Let's just say I'm auctioning 2 inner city and one inner east in Aug and Sep. I think Oct is the peak. Why Oct? Because I just realised everyone is looking to buy now.

If I am wrong I sell 2 more in Mar. Looking forward to 6 percent interest rates after that. Or 20 percent for all I care
 
North is truly the last place. Too late to get into anything now. A little bit of value left in west and inner city. East long gone.

Let's just say I'm auctioning 2 inner city and one inner east in Aug and Sep. I think Oct is the peak. Why Oct? Because I just realised everyone is looking to buy now.

If I am wrong I sell 2 more in Mar. Looking forward to 6 percent interest rates after that. Or 20 percent for all I care

Nice to cash up

I did that in Perth recently
 
Don't think the big switch has happened yet. Syd still powering on, Melb is strong, but not as strong. Big switch has primarily happened in outer east and inner east I feel.

Colleague just sold a property for 45% more than what he paid for it last year to Syd investor in private sale. Should be more to come in next few months, once these guys go back and gloat about how cheap Melb is.

They'll move onto inner west and inner city next I feel.

I don't think there will be a really big switch. A moderate one, yes. But not a big one. The reason is because sydney investors and buyers have not just Melbourne to choose from; they may feel there are better value buys in the market elsewhere other than Melbourne.
 
I don't think there will be a really big switch. A moderate one, yes. But not a big one. The reason is because sydney investors and buyers have not just Melbourne to choose from; they may feel there are better value buys in the market elsewhere other than Melbourne.

I suspect they're just chasing either Melbourne or Brisbane. Doubt Perth would rate a mention in this cycle.
 
Right, let's see how many new threads on Melb start popping up, problem is everyone will be fighting for the same property.

Perhaps those looking should start focussing on areas that will catch up, ie north as you mentioned, west already on the move, east going gangbusters

Seven active threads on Melbourne now and counting, move over Syd:)

Mtr
 
Yes. But I wasn't sure what I should go for. If I built for myself, I would do 4x2's because it was to be a long term hold to rent and there are very few 4x2's in the area resulting in unmet demand for this product for rent. However, a purchaser might want to do something more like three townhouses.

under-development can be more profitable than maxxing out the zoning.

especially in perth.
 
Back
Top