...because those who have made money know how to, obviously.
Property risk highest in a long time
- Thread starter hobo-jo
- Start date
...because those who have made money know how to, obviously.
I've more than doubled my net worth over the last few years, but lost money in the last 12 months. The very suggestion that making money over x period makes someone's opinion more valid than anthers is preposterous (especially on a property forum where I suspect the majority of investors have been riding out the multi year correction that has been playing out across Australian property markets).
Australia is uniquely positioned to benefit from the Asian century, and china is not the only country with high energy needs. Sure we will encounter hurdles but at least we are in a hell of a better position than many other countries. The Suisse 2012 report rated us the wealthiest country per capita in the world, ahead by a massive amount to the second place getter Sweden. I'm confident property will still be a stable investment in Australia in twenty years.
Someone who loses money has as valid a point as Steve Keen.
I don't know what property market you are talking about but I've made far more money in the past 12 months than I ever have, and I've seen plenty more people around here do the same.
Market timing is obviously important, even if you do things for a long-term strategy. Let's take your gold speculation and my last property purchase as examples.
Let's say we're both optimists of gold prices and believe it'll sky-rocket in the long-run. And let's say we both started with $100k 6 months ago.
My property would've turned my $100k in to $300k. I can now sell my property and buy $300k worth of gold. In contrast, the $100k of gold you bought 6 months ago is now only worth $80k. So today if I chose to I could have nearly 4x as much as gold as you have in 6 months, even though we both started with the same amount of money.
In 10 years time, when gold booms and goes up 1,000%, your $80k is worth $800k. My $300k is worth $3m.
So no, it's not about gloating and making cheap shots because I "got lucky". It's all about numbers. As I always say. Numbers don't lie. Knowledge is power. Rhetoric is boring.
Let's say we're both optimists of gold prices and believe it'll sky-rocket in the long-run. And let's say we both started with $100k 6 months ago.
My property would've turned my $100k in to $300k. I can now sell my property and buy $300k worth of gold. In contrast, the $100k of gold you bought 6 months ago is now only worth $80k. So today if I chose to I could have nearly 4x as much as gold as you have in 6 months, even though we both started with the same amount of money.
In 10 years time, when gold booms and goes up 1,000%, your $80k is worth $800k. My $300k is worth $3m.
So no, it's not about gloating and making cheap shots because I "got lucky". It's all about numbers. As I always say. Numbers don't lie. Knowledge is power. Rhetoric is boring.
So is that what you intend to do with the $300k? Buy Gold?
You might lose your $300k. You said yourself you can't provide an example of something that will make money over the next 12 months, so what reason do we have to believe that your last 12 months haven't been blind luck?
'Predicting' history and then not being forthcoming with the future and then claiming that somehow makes you superior is pretty rich, but you're welcome to believe what you like Deltaberry.
You might lose your $300k. You said yourself you can't provide an example of something that will make money over the next 12 months, so what reason do we have to believe that your last 12 months haven't been blind luck?
'Predicting' history and then not being forthcoming with the future and then claiming that somehow makes you superior is pretty rich, but you're welcome to believe what you like Deltaberry.
What is knowledge saying to do in this market though?
- Gold,
- RIP,
- CIP,
- US stocks,
- Euro stocks,
- Aus stocks,
- Bonds,
- Other
Nothing I believe matters. Facts are just that, facts.
You'll now have to wait for the gold price to increase to around $4000/oz before you reach my same $300k in the example.
Presuming you outperformed my portfolio prior to the last 12 months is not fact.
Presuming you will match or outperform my portfolio in the future is not fact.
Presuming we have the same investment time frame left in life is not fact.
redwing, I wouldn't bother, Deltaberry is clearly so tied up in his own self importance having made money over the last 12 months that he isn't open to reasonable discussion.
Honestly guys, who cares who made what.
This site provides dialogue to share ideas. If we follow one person or another simply because they made more than someone else, then you aren't going to get very because everyones circumstances are different.
Hobo-Jo. Personally I find Deltaberry and Aaron C's posts quite motivating, as it raises awareness there are plenty more levels of investing well above my own, yet have no interest to invest in their market at the moment due to my personal circumstances.
This site provides dialogue to share ideas. If we follow one person or another simply because they made more than someone else, then you aren't going to get very because everyones circumstances are different.
Hobo-Jo. Personally I find Deltaberry and Aaron C's posts quite motivating, as it raises awareness there are plenty more levels of investing well above my own, yet have no interest to invest in their market at the moment due to my personal circumstances.
All I said was I outperformed the gold price which went down 20%. Why you so upset?
As you say, predicting the future is important for making money. But so is learning from past mistakes or learning from other people's successes, which is probably something this site has to offer you.
What he said.
the problem hobo-jo, is that you keep going on about property, yet the gold price has suffered accordingly over the last 6 odd months.
Yet what do you say about gold?
Do you cut losses on gold and move to cash???
If not, then how can you be arguing about property.
There are always two components to an asset:
(a) the price
(b) the income yld.
At least property has an income yld (although pretty poor for resi). Gold has no yld
Anyone who exited gold, and moved to cash would have been in hindsight correct.
Yet what do you say about gold?
Do you cut losses on gold and move to cash???
If not, then how can you be arguing about property.
There are always two components to an asset:
(a) the price
(b) the income yld.
At least property has an income yld (although pretty poor for resi). Gold has no yld
Anyone who exited gold, and moved to cash would have been in hindsight correct.
much golds run up was a response to massive money printing. if people think the worst, gold is insurance. if they got in at the right time, then they'd still be ok.
but now gold is not insurance. it has been falling with stocks. who knows whether it is a legitimate turn of trend or not. even a numbskull like myself can identify that nothing is functioning as generally expected out there today.
is this the new normal where bad news is good because it means more printing, and good news is bad because it means a step towards turning off the pump?
i dont know, but its funny to learn that central banks have been buying for the last few years. doesn't say much for greater fools theory unless the fools are the sellers?
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2012/02/09/warren-buffett-berkshire-shareholder-letter/
A great article by Warren Buffett providing a strong case against the yellow metal.
A great article by Warren Buffett providing a strong case against the yellow metal.
Similar threads
