Property short-term cycles

I had an interesting conversation with an r/e agent today.

I have a (DHA) property in Jerrabomberra, near Queanbeyan.

It's value has improved quite well, after some years with not much growth (like many areas).

But what he's said is very interesting.

There appears to be an annual cycle there- perhaps like Canberra, but possibly accentuated.

Winter, prices go down. Spring, they shoot up. Summer, they rise, but not too much. Autumn, not much again. But again in winter, back down again.

Nothing to rely on. But he says it's happened like that for the last 10 years. Annual variance, perhaps 15%. Annual growth, 5%.

So if a developer is saying, "Buy land before Christmas", he really means, "before prices go down again".

Does this sort of cycle happen elsewhere? I've heard before that in the ACT, winter is a good time to buy- for similar reasons.
Same in Perth

This phenomena is also experienced in Perth, with properties able to languish on the market for months in winter only to be snapped up in early spring.

G'Day All,

Years ago when I was selling real estate in The Dandenongs, (the Hills, East of Melbourne), areas like Olinda, Kalorama, Tecoma etc. also showed these sort of variances.

People would take a Sunday drive up the mountains in Spring and think to themselves......."Ohh what a beautiful place to live"

Some would buy practically on the spur of the moment and after enduring a wet drawn out winter, decide that steep blocks, unmade roads, tank water and millions of fallen leaves was not really their idea of paradise any more.

Property back on market and sellers eager to get out.

First half reasonable offer with quick settlement was usually accepted.

.....and then the cycle repeats over......

Hi all,

I've heard that this tends to happen with auctions in major capital cities. People just seem to not cower from house hunting in winter and prefer to sleep-in every weekend instead in a warm bed.

My obervation in inner Melbourne is that there is a similar trend however prices are up in Winter (due to shortage of stock), still high in Spring (especially early Spring) and then as we near Christmas more are passed in at Auction and some are still languishing on the market into the late Summer. I have not however checked my observations against growth statistics.

So if I were looking for a bargain in inner Melbourne I would be looking at the private sales lists of auction agents in summer especially around the Christmas period.