i "heard" that the QLD vote alone could wipe out Labor federally, and by adding NSW into the mix could see a significant majority Liberal.
is that true?
What they are referring to there Aaron is the swing away from Labor in each electorate.
The swing away from Labor in the Qld state election was approximately 15.7%. There is currently 30 Federal seats out of the 150 seats in Parliament that make up Qld. The Liberal / National coalition currently hold 21 seats, with Labor holding 8 and Bob Katter holds the remaining seat as an independent.
Those 8 seats are all fairly marginal, with the largest comfort zone for the Labor Party in Kevin Rudd's seat of Griffiths, with a margin of 8.5%.
What they are saying is, if the swing against Labor is only HALF of what we have just seen in the state election of Qld, i.e. say a 7.9% swing, then Kevin Rudd would be the only Labor candidate from Qld who would retain his seat in Federal Parliament.....by the slimmest of margins.
Of course, if we see Federally what we just saw in Qld and NSW, Labor would be decimated.
No-one predicted the backlash to be as harsh or as widespread in either of those two state elections. I suspect the media and commentary coming up to the next Federal election will once again be very understated.
Labor insiders (including Peter Beattie) admitted that continually attacking Mr Abbott is getting nowhere, as it did when they tried to smear Mr Newman. You see this in this thread. Everyone on the left is screaming for the Libs to replace Mr Abbott with Mr Turnbull....but the majority of the party don't want Turnbull, as he has views that don't align with the majority of the party members want....regardless of his popularity.
Mr Abbott had two things to say :
"The Labor brand was "toxic" nationwide."
"The fundamental lesson is that a Govt which isn't competent, which isn't frugal and which isn't truthful loses and loses big time."
I look forward to the scathing analysis from Paul Keating....who went thru the NSW Labor Party like a pack of salts just after their crushing defeat at the NSW state election. I'm sure he'll go through the charred remains of the Qld Labor Party and do the same thing. No-one seems to be taking any heed of what Keating had to say.
They seem, led by Julia, to be hell bent on their socialist reforms, which is anathema to the majority of the Australian public.