QLD Election! Who is your money on?

[Dazz]

i "heard" that the QLD vote alone could wipe out Labor federally, and by adding NSW into the mix could see a significant majority Liberal.

is that true?

What they are referring to there Aaron is the swing away from Labor in each electorate.

The swing away from Labor in the Qld state election was approximately 15.7%. There is currently 30 Federal seats out of the 150 seats in Parliament that make up Qld. The Liberal / National coalition currently hold 21 seats, with Labor holding 8 and Bob Katter holds the remaining seat as an independent.

Those 8 seats are all fairly marginal, with the largest comfort zone for the Labor Party in Kevin Rudd's seat of Griffiths, with a margin of 8.5%.

What they are saying is, if the swing against Labor is only HALF of what we have just seen in the state election of Qld, i.e. say a 7.9% swing, then Kevin Rudd would be the only Labor candidate from Qld who would retain his seat in Federal Parliament.....by the slimmest of margins.

Of course, if we see Federally what we just saw in Qld and NSW, Labor would be decimated.

No-one predicted the backlash to be as harsh or as widespread in either of those two state elections. I suspect the media and commentary coming up to the next Federal election will once again be very understated.

Labor insiders (including Peter Beattie) admitted that continually attacking Mr Abbott is getting nowhere, as it did when they tried to smear Mr Newman. You see this in this thread. Everyone on the left is screaming for the Libs to replace Mr Abbott with Mr Turnbull....but the majority of the party don't want Turnbull, as he has views that don't align with the majority of the party members want....regardless of his popularity.

Mr Abbott had two things to say :

"The Labor brand was "toxic" nationwide."

"The fundamental lesson is that a Govt which isn't competent, which isn't frugal and which isn't truthful loses and loses big time."


I look forward to the scathing analysis from Paul Keating....who went thru the NSW Labor Party like a pack of salts just after their crushing defeat at the NSW state election. I'm sure he'll go through the charred remains of the Qld Labor Party and do the same thing. No-one seems to be taking any heed of what Keating had to say.

They seem, led by Julia, to be hell bent on their socialist reforms, which is anathema to the majority of the Australian public.

 

[VYBerlinaV8]

The KAP is ok, except they left the 'R' out...

 

[Theresa777]

Commentators said that the Queensland electorate was waiting on the verandah with baseball bats for the ALP.

It looked like they were waiting with chainsaws and machetes to me.

 

[evand]

Parties reinvent themselves constantly. The Libs look nothing like they did in the 80s, and the 60s before that they were completely different.

Tony Abbott has reinvented himself about 8 times in 10 years.

Do you have anything to add to the discussion? Or just personal comments?

Man you are really sour about the weekend arnt you?

Everything I read from you in this thread sounds likes it comes from a one eyed, tunnel vision labor till they die supporter who cant see reality for what it is.

Labor is Labor, if Labor becomes something else then is it really Labor?

 

[Sunfish]

Sounds great the Labour party will "reinvent itself" to become more like the Liberal Party.

It will split as it has done before.

 

[willair]

The best part is with Anna's South Brisbane safe Labor seat is,who will vote for Labor again after all the spin she put out prior too the state election then does a i don't want to play in the sandpit anymore,next cab off the rank will be Graig Thompson MP as he still faces allegations about who paid for escorts services for his credid card ,funny part part is most brothels that i used to do the maintenance on had several cameras up in the grid,..

 

[Sunfish]

Labor is and will reinvent itself using the model of Blair's New Labor. Distancing itself from the unions as a young, fresh party straddling centrist policies. In time it will show how out of touch and irrelevant the current Liberal party really is.

I hope you are right about labor reinventing itself: Thats the way party politics is supposed to work. But if you have a New Labor then, by definition, the Old Labor is dead. That's what I have been saying. Labor [as we know it] is GONSKY! If, and only "if", they become a new centre party I will vote for them again. They will need to associate with the Australia Party which is already in that space and which has a less sullied brand though. But the pommy unionist and others will not go with them.

But Tony is a poor model. He was even less trustworthy than those you despise here.

ps Will the "new" labor spell it's name right?

 

[Sunfish]

The best part is with Anna's South Brisbane safe Labor seat is,who will vote for Labor again after all the spin she put out prior too the state election then does a i don't want to play in the sandpit anymore,next cab off the rank will be Graig Thompson MP as he still faces allegations about who paid for escorts services for his credid card ,funny part part is most brothels that i used to do the maintenance on had several cameras up in the grid,..

Willair. Anna had to resign to give either Andrew Frazer or Cameron Dick a second chance. That would go over well, wouldn't it? after the abuse she gave Cambpell for standing in a seat where he doesn't live.

 

[willair]

Willair. Anna had to resign to give either Andrew Frazer or Cameron Dick a second chance. That would go over well, wouldn't it? after the abuse she gave Cambpell for standing in a seat where he doesn't live.

Mate it just gets a bigger joke by the day,it is like Hon Russ Hinze many years ago when he would drive down the Valley and tell all the voters ,i can't see any Brothels -Massage Shops-even when they would pull up outside the places..maybe because his mates were inside..

 

[Aaron Sice]

What they are referring to there Aaron is the swing away from Labor in each electorate......

thanks for that Dazz. I'm not exceptionally up-2-speed in politricks, and your explanation opened a few "doors of reason" for me.

thansk for taking the time to explain that

 

[Sunfish]

thanks for that Dazz. I'm not exceptionally up-2-speed in politricks, and your explanation opened a few "doors of reason" for me.

thansk for taking the time to explain that

I almost gave Dazz kudos for his post. But that would never do. Don't want him getting a big head. LOL

 

[pennyk]

So, my "position" would be conservative economically but I want compassionate policies in relation to the poor...... but I'm really against the Greenies and their social agenda.

Its a very awkward position to be in... and I'm yet to find a party which adequately represents my views. Essentially, I think the Libs with Malcolm Turnbull leading it is probably close to what I am looking for... I think there are quite a few Labor voters in my position.

I think Labor has to really analyse why they are in the position they are in. I hope they do, and I hope they learn from it. There is no point saying it was "just time for a change" or to minimise the extent of the loss. If they dont really look closely, and make changes, and stop making excuses, they will become irrelevant nationally.

Its almost inevitable that Labor will lose the next election nationally.. but I dont think Julia Gillard has actually performed as poorly as is represented, apart from her public relations/ media/ marketing, which has been absolutely appalling.
Given the minority government, she has been reasonably effective in getting legislation passed (whether I agree with them or not is another matter!!). But
I dont think Tony Abbott would have been able to manage to get the same amount of cooperation from the minor parties, and I suspect he would probably be in a worse position than Gillard now if he were PM.

If I were Abbott, I would be very glad that I didnt "win" the poisoned chalice at the last election. It will be a much easier road for him this way....

 

[Aaron Sice]

I almost gave Dazz kudos for his post. But that would never do. Don't want him getting a big head. LOL

well, i keep trying but apparently i have to spread it around.

 

[Aaron Sice]

I dont think Tony Abbott would have been able to manage to get the same amount of cooperation from the minor parties, and I suspect he would probably be in a worse position than Gillard now if he were PM.

but with a majority govt, what does it matter?

 

[pennyk]

and the moderates to the Australia Party [The "K" will be dropped] in a centrist party which will keep the b******s honest.

Do you really think the "australia party" will get any traction outside of QLD and in future elections?

To me, it feels like One Nation or Family First... it has got a reasonable amount of attention this QLD election, but it doesnt feel like a particularly robust party.

I think Katter is a bit too much of a nutter to really take that role in Australian politics. In the end, we like boring old f*rts like Howard and Rudd.

 

[Sunfish]

So, my "position" would be conservative economically but I want compassionate policies in relation to the poor...... but I'm really against the Greenies and their social agenda.

Penny, you have just described a small "l" liberal. Just because a party bears that name doesn't mean it is true to the principals of liberalism, and the same must be said of the party with the misspelt "labour" tag.

And Turnbull will never lead the liberal party. Forget it. The australia party, together with some disenfranchised labor survivors may choose him as a leader though.

 

[Sunfish]

Do you really think the "australia party" will get any traction outside of QLD and in future elections?

To me, it feels like One Nation or Family First... it has got a reasonable amount of attention this QLD election, but it doesnt feel like a particularly robust party.

I think Katter is a bit too much of a nutter to really take that role in Australian politics. In the end, we like boring old f*rts like Howard and Rudd.

On it's own, probably not. But Australia is crying out for a centre party so others will join, or stand beside it, and they will swap preferences. And Katter has much more respect than Hanson ever had.

 

[Macca]

Do you really think the "australia party" will get any traction outside of QLD and in future elections?

To me, it feels like One Nation or Family First... it has got a reasonable amount of attention this QLD election, but it doesnt feel like a particularly robust party.

I think Katter is a bit too much of a nutter to really take that role in Australian politics. In the end, we like boring old f*rts like Howard and Rudd.

The interesting thing is that we could see some senators voted in from QLD in the next federal election that are from KAP.

The senate would be rather tight if Labor lose a couple and the disaffected Labor voters in QLD vote KAP not Liberal, wouldn't that be fun

 

[Aaron Sice]

Do you really think the "australia party" will get any traction outside of QLD and in future elections?

considering the amount these stickers doing the rounds

i'd say....maybe.

 

[Ideo]

On it's own, probably not. But Australia is crying out for a centre party so others will join, or stand beside it, and they will swap preferences. And Katter has much more respect than Hanson ever had.

I cannot, and will never, see Katter as a Centrist.