rates to be cut in 2015?
- Thread starter JDP1
- Start date
The data shows we're in an income recession. Nominal growth is negative. The budget (not that connected to rates), will take an absolute battering, peoples consumption will fall, etc.
Fingers crossed its temporary, but a massive terms of trade shock (albeit expected) is having a strong impact on the economy.
If it continues indefinitely, its only a matter of time before rates fall. There may need to be some offsetting tool to cool any potential asset bubble (macropru).
Cheers,
Redom
The CBA economist was pointing towards a 0.25% increase around June/July 15 based on needing to cool business confidence which is on its way up (though slowly). The RB can't jack up rates too quickly or it will dampen consumer spending and wreck business confidence. Jacking up rates will also encourage saving (even more than now), restricting the amount of money being spent on consumables.
im still trying to get my head around assuming rates dont go up or down significantly, are we about to hit a recession or its just going to be slow and flat until consumer confidence returns,
when I was younger, I actually had some faith and credibility in the media comments, but now there is an article about a massive boom and recession within 20 mins of eachtother on a daily basis,
when I was younger, I actually had some faith and credibility in the media comments, but now there is an article about a massive boom and recession within 20 mins of eachtother on a daily basis,
All very true - todays media is 24/7 and most of commentary involves one journo talking to another. Not exactly the richest source of info.
Nonetheless, expectations shift in response to new data. Data that came in on Q2/Q3 growth earlier this week was pretty bleak, so expectations of rate movements have adjusted. Hence the dollars taken a bit of a hit since, market expectations of rate cuts have increased.
Cheers,
Redom
Nonetheless, expectations shift in response to new data. Data that came in on Q2/Q3 growth earlier this week was pretty bleak, so expectations of rate movements have adjusted. Hence the dollars taken a bit of a hit since, market expectations of rate cuts have increased.
Cheers,
Redom
They know that if they put the rates down again we'll all get paralysed with fear of recession and just make things worse.
I reckon rates are as low as they'll go. Putting them up might actually improve confidence. I hope they just keep them on hold for another year - that'd be wonderful (I don't expect it, though.)
I reckon rates are as low as they'll go. Putting them up might actually improve confidence. I hope they just keep them on hold for another year - that'd be wonderful (I don't expect it, though.)
This is what is going on... Aussie Dollar slip sliding now at 82
comes on the back of weaker sales, profits and employment leaving the door open for a possible correction in the unemployment rate scheduled for release Thursday.
Slowing GDP and softer commodities have fuelled analyst?s speculation the RBA will look to cut rates not once but twice through 2016 as the economy looks to absorb weakening global growth and a transition away from mining.
Adding salt to the proverbial wound the PBOC (Peoples Bank of China) added additional financial tightening measures sparking a run on Chinese and global equities and a flight to safe haven assets
comes on the back of weaker sales, profits and employment leaving the door open for a possible correction in the unemployment rate scheduled for release Thursday.
Slowing GDP and softer commodities have fuelled analyst?s speculation the RBA will look to cut rates not once but twice through 2016 as the economy looks to absorb weakening global growth and a transition away from mining.
Adding salt to the proverbial wound the PBOC (Peoples Bank of China) added additional financial tightening measures sparking a run on Chinese and global equities and a flight to safe haven assets
I hope rates go up! time for investments to kick in..
That extra $1.25pa from your $500 online account will come in really handy for your compounding returns!
pinkboy
Newcastle Permanent is already offering 3.89% p.a as a 1 Year Fixed Rate. How low can they go? I had to read that a couple of time. I thought it was a typo.
http://www.newcastlepermanent.com.au/Personal/HomeLoans/FixedRateHomeLoan/tabid/94/Default.aspx
http://www.newcastlepermanent.com.au/Personal/HomeLoans/FixedRateHomeLoan/tabid/94/Default.aspx
Growth forecasts seem to have been over the odds for a while now. The days of chucking 3% in your forecast and then making a few tweaks up or down are over.
Personally I don't see where the growth (to get back to the 'long run average') is coming from, so I think this could continue for a while.
Difficult to tell, I'm sure everyone has a theory. Personally I'd lean towards just slow and flat - I think the Govt / policy makers etc. are still very cognicent of the GFC so a 'recession' is still a very scary word compared to and extended period of slow and flat.
NAB's Alan Oster says 30% chance of three 2015 rate cuts
Another one jumps ship:
"NAB's Alan Oster says 30% chance of three 2015 rate cuts"
http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/...il&utm_term=0_a523fbfccb-f1d3250a17-245503545
It's looking increasingly likely that there could be a cut or even two in the first 2 quarters next year! If that's the case there might still be some fuel left in the tank for Sydney & Melbourne after all...
Another one jumps ship:
"NAB's Alan Oster says 30% chance of three 2015 rate cuts"
http://www.propertyobserver.com.au/...il&utm_term=0_a523fbfccb-f1d3250a17-245503545
It's looking increasingly likely that there could be a cut or even two in the first 2 quarters next year! If that's the case there might still be some fuel left in the tank for Sydney & Melbourne after all...
Get ready for the slingshot!!
Commodity prices are ALL crap ...everything from iron ore to copper to gold. China is slowing, oil is so low and heading lower (sorry if you owned Santos), AUD heading lower, consumer confidence is falling like a stone, retail has been in a trough for a while , unemployment is edging up .....and there sits Uncle Glenn chewing his nails. Late to the party as ever the RBA will be forced to cut, and as always will cut later and more than they should. Just look at history. At the same time we have mom & pop losing money in the share market and ready to ditch their shares ( you told me Woolworths and Woodside were
safe !! ) ....and buy property. Welcome to the slingshot !!!!! I hope you're ready. Uncle Glenn will be having a coronary .... LL
Commodity prices are ALL crap ...everything from iron ore to copper to gold. China is slowing, oil is so low and heading lower (sorry if you owned Santos), AUD heading lower, consumer confidence is falling like a stone, retail has been in a trough for a while , unemployment is edging up .....and there sits Uncle Glenn chewing his nails. Late to the party as ever the RBA will be forced to cut, and as always will cut later and more than they should. Just look at history. At the same time we have mom & pop losing money in the share market and ready to ditch their shares ( you told me Woolworths and Woodside were
safe !! ) ....and buy property. Welcome to the slingshot !!!!! I hope you're ready. Uncle Glenn will be having a coronary .... LL
Year ends in 20 days.
Crude oil -38%
Brent oil -41%
Nat Gas -13%
Wheat -10%
Corn -10%
Soybeans -30%
Sugar -10%
Asx
WPL -11.3%
WOW -11.5%
BHP -24%
STO -50.8%
QBE -6.7%
RIO -16.3%
FMG -58.35
Will rates be cut? Possibly. Will it change anything? Probably not.
That's a nice discount. Time to buy or are they going even lower?
That's a nice discount. Time to buy or are they going even lower?
I would say they will be $20.00 soon.
Easystreet and CU Credit Union are offering honeymoon periods at 3.75.
