RBA May 2015 announcement - 25 point cut

There's an increase in banks doing some subtle "tinkering at the edges" over recent weeks - no doubt these are the results of various "chats" with APRA behind closed doors.

Some examples;

Macquarie incentivising P & I over I/O in both their rates and on their servicing calc.

Westpac lifting its assessment rate from 6.8% to 7.1% and placing a floor under it, meaning it will remain 7.1% even if rate to borrower reaches 1%

But perhaps the biggest change, receiving the least attention, is the adjustment in non resident lending from the Westpac family - Westpac, STG, BSA, BOM and Rams - reducing non resident lending LVR's from 80% to 70%.
I dont know what the stats are, but I'm pretty sure the Westpac family does the majority of non resident lending in Australia... certainly the overwhelming lenders of choice amongst the heavyweight Connective, FAST, AFG type groups who write a lot of those kinds of deals.

This coupled with the significant increase in Govt chatter about getting tough on illegal non resident purchases, the $5K FIRB fee and strengthening ( or supposed strengthening ) of FIRB's capacity to enforce things and the $39 million high profile sacrificial lamb /imposed sale in Sydney recently... etc etc.

Whether any of this will make any difference to the Sydney insanity is up for debate... after all.... money is very very very very ( did I say very?) cheap now and Mortgage Ezy just joined the sub 4% 3 year brigade....

I wonder how long before all the majors are offering 3 years at 4% or below 4% ?
 
Now is the time for the smart investors to look at their debt, if I the sh@t hits the fan can you manage debt? If not, offload.
when it tanks no one buys and you are stuck for years and prices fall.

It's fine if you purchased at a low and rent covers loan, but my guess is most won't be in this scenario
 
As above banks getting tighter on different policies. Heard from someone pretty high up that CBA now deeming 3 to be commercial, so only allowing two and some other silly stuff. Haven't seen it confirmed yet. But have seen that CBA has changed it pricing tool now you need to say if application/loan is for IP or PPOR and ask P&I or IO.
 
Now is the time for the smart investors to look at their debt, if I the sh@t hits the fan can you manage debt? If not, offload.
when it tanks no one buys and you are stuck for years and prices fall.

This is very good advise,i recently have weeded out 2 non performers that no longer meet my profile for various reasons and moved them along at a very nice profit.
 
Don't tell me that Brady. I've got a 4 unit CBA deal to submit in the next 48 hours. It was fine on Monday.

I know I hear you, I have my 3 lot which will be happening within the next couple of months. From my understand it was only talk at this stage, but was confident that was going to happen soon. I hope not and think they would be crazy to. Best of luck let me know how you goes.
 
I think we will have more cuts and heavier bank lending policy restrictions.

Case in point looks like APRA have been into Westpac and made them add a bit more fat on their servicing for investors as well as reducing LVR's for non residents to 70%. Applies to St George as well.

Yes, I was told by a friend they are targeting investors with stricter lending rules. He said, "It's not a matter of if but when?"....
 
What about the wealth effect of rate increases? Properties drop 100k?

Theoretically asset prices fall - although with housing given its illiquid nature prices don't tend to fall that fast.

Stock prices are a good guide - interest rat cuts (or at least the expectation of them, rather than the event themselves) lead to increases in value. Rises would have the opposite effect.

This in turn effects people's wealth, who then go and translate it into their consumption behaviour and the magic of interest rate cuts starts filtering through to the economy.

Cheers,
Redom
 
Now is the time for the smart investors to look at their debt, if I the sh@t hits the fan can you manage debt?
That's exactly what I am looking at now. Managing risk, coverage, buffers etc. It is affecting my decision making.

In other news, ING emailed me this today:

We're passing on the full 0.25% p.a. RBA rate cut to your variable rate home loan.

Happy days! :)
 
So.... what odds we have sub 4%, 5 year fixed rates within the next few weeks and months ?

I am leaning towards yes.... or close to sub 4% . Why? Cheap European money looking for a better yielding home than the ECB and its negative rates. If HSBC, Mortgage Ezy, Newcastle Perm, ME Bank and other mutuals can offer 3 years at or below 3.99%... and if the AOFM can secure 20 year debt for 2.4ish% .... AAA rate Aussie banks must be able to do similar.

And if say, 5 year fixed rates at 3.99% were to become readily available... would you be inclined to fix?
 
And if say, 5 year fixed rates at 3.99% were to become readily available... would you be inclined to fix?

Absolutely! Hitting retirement, there's nothing like the feeling that there's no nasties in store for the next 5 years. Although in saying that, we've got buffers in place, but it's nice to know you're covered.
 
I really think that ARPA, the RBA and the federal government should be working together on this one.
While I'm happy to easily get lots of cheap credit, I'm not sure that it's a prudent way to run our financial system.
 
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