RBA to cut another 1%?

Yes.

It's time for a hard decision to be made and sold to the public, and time for the Opposition and Senate to get out of the way and support the Gubb in infrastructure spending - which will deliver a return on investment.

It has to be sold to the public, because most of the public are financially uneducated, and only equate debt and increasing debt with a bad financial situation...and the Gubb have been pushing this angle too to gain Political votes, which doesn't help.

It is time for the Gubb and the Opposition to get tough on the areas that cost money and waste money and don't deliver a (good enough) return such as pensions and welfare and dead wood public service department spending for an example.

They won't do it, because the Public don't like to hear hard decision bad news.
 
if the US raise rates 15 basis points, watch this discussion become irrelevant overnight.
We are talking about the RBA cash rate in this thread. Surely US yields will impact on AUS swap rates (used to price fixed rates) and govt bond yields, but will it stop the RBA from cutting the official cash rate?
 
geez.. all this hocus pocus.

You do realise there are investors right now buyings properties, buying sites and laughing all the way to the bank, regardless of all this doom and gloom nonsense.

The doom and gloom talk will come to an end. And those smart investors will see a nice jump in their net worth. :D while the doom and gloom talkers are no better off.
 
geez.. all this hocus pocus.

You do realise there are investors right now buyings properties, buying sites and laughing all the way to the bank, regardless of all this doom and gloom nonsense.

The doom and gloom talk will come to an end. And those smart investors will see a nice jump in their net worth. :D while the doom and gloom talkers are no better off.
I like your footer, and as Les Brown said, " You have to be Hungryyyyyyyyyyyy".
 
geez.. all this hocus pocus.

You do realise there are investors right now buyings properties, buying sites and laughing all the way to the bank, regardless of all this doom and gloom nonsense.

The doom and gloom talk will come to an end. And those smart investors will see a nice jump in their net worth. :D while the doom and gloom talkers are no better off.
Shhh. The doom and gloom is supposed to keep rates low!!!
 
geez.. all this hocus pocus.

You do realise there are investors right now buyings properties, buying sites and laughing all the way to the bank, regardless of all this doom and gloom nonsense.

The doom and gloom talk will come to an end. And those smart investors will see a nice jump in their net worth. :D while the doom and gloom talkers are no better off.
Uhh that's what I keep saying. This forum always attracts a bunch of real estate experts every boom. I keep asking, so how has all this analysis helped any of them get ahead... not once do I get a response.
 
Uhh that's what I keep saying. This forum always attracts a bunch of real estate experts every boom. I keep asking, so how has all this analysis helped any of them get ahead... not once do I get a response.
DB

It can help . The first live gathering from somersoft was " The Wife's " BBQ in Canberra . People travelled from all over the place to go . ? 2002

There were awards given and I got the award for analysis paralysis .

Some people just have to go through the process of working things out , and then it's easy . I think it took over a year before we bought our first IP and then we bought a total of 19 in the next 18 months . Included in that was a place we bought and sold without ever having seen and some where we bought as a result of a letter drop .mthe valuation of that one came back over the purchase price .

Nowadays when we start looking we know exactly what we want and where to look to find it .

Current buying cycle took a few hours of comparing a short list of areas . Then some time looking at properties on the net over a couple of days checking out what was for sale . We've currently bought four in the last month and making an offer on another at the moment . All of these were off the first agent we talked too ....

We'll buy a few more and all of that I'll be with significantly less work than with our first one .

For me dd is about the specific property , but timing is as important if not more important than the specific properties .

For me I'm happy to read these threads as it gives me a greater understanding of what is likely to happen in the economy and with rates , and for me that's as important given the emphasis I place on timing .

At least when Mark B gets involved with these discussion I know someone knows what they're talking about and he will question any obvious flaws in other people posts :D

Cliff
 
At least when Mark B gets involved with these discussion I know someone knows what they're talking about and he will question any obvious flaws in other people posts, on occasion even his own :D

Cliff
fixed that for you.

And I think my interest rate forecasting record on SS is pretty **** tbh.

Most of economics is a matter of perspective imo.
 
fixed that for you.
Mark , at least you and I will admit we occasionally ( only very occasionally ;) ) make mistakes , and on occasions I've even taken the rediculous step of apologising for things I've said .....:eek:

Now days I tend to delete some posts before I " submit reply" .

You know the ones where you want to tell some FW , they are a FW ...... :rolleyes: just leads to circular arguments that go nowhere .:eek:

Cliff
 
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We are talking about the RBA cash rate in this thread. Surely US yields will impact on AUS swap rates (used to price fixed rates) and govt bond yields, but will it stop the RBA from cutting the official cash rate?
it won't stop them, no.

my point is all these little reasons and arguments based on the "sum of its parts" are totally irrelevant once the bigger international markets move.

if the US raise rates, expect ours to fall further.

currency wars have a very dangerous "knife edge" turning point - a country's economy has to be perfectly positioned to ride the wave up out of a currency war - otherwise we will end up like a watered down version of the Weimar Republic.

nothing good came out of the Weimar Republic - nothing. Greece is riding that wave now; even a unified Europe was borne of the result of the Weimar Republic.

If Australia doesn't time an appropriate response correctly, when international markets move we WILL be left to flounder and can expect the kind of growth malaise the 70s offered us - but without the population growth to fuel new markets.
 
Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board

Considerations for Monetary Policy

Members noted that information becoming available over the past month had not led to any material change to the global outlook, which was for growth of Australia's major trading partners to be around average over the period ahead. After somewhat weaker-than-expected economic conditions in China earlier in the year, the authorities had eased a range of policies and announced initiatives to support growth, and some of the recent data had been slightly more positive. The Federal Reserve was expected to begin the process of raising its policy interest rate later this year, but some other major central banks were continuing to ease policy. Commodity prices had been mixed over the month and little changed overall, and were significantly lower than a year earlier.

Domestically, the available data suggested that output growth had continued at a below-trend pace over the past year and would remain a little below trend in the period ahead before picking up to around trend in the latter part of 2016. The national accounts data for the March quarter were expected to show that the key forces operating on the economy were much as they had been for some time. After picking up late last year, growth of household expenditure was expected to have remained strong, supported by low interest rates and strong population growth. Conditions in the housing market in Sydney and parts of Melbourne had remained very strong, though trends were more mixed in other cities. Survey-based measures of business conditions had remained around average levels. There continued to be spare capacity in labour and product markets, although there had been some improvement in labour market conditions over the past six months or so. Inflationary pressures remained well contained and were likely to remain so in the period ahead.

The exchange rate was close to the lowest levels seen earlier in the year, but members noted that the current level of the exchange rate, particularly on a trade-weighted basis, continued to offer less assistance than would normally be expected in achieving balanced growth in the economy. A further depreciation therefore seemed [sic] both likely and necessary, particularly given the significant declines in commodity prices over the past year.

Overall, in assessing domestic conditions and the international environment, the Board's assessment was that the stance of monetary policy should be accommodative. Having eased policy at the previous meeting, members judged that it was appropriate to leave the cash rate unchanged and to assess information on economic and financial conditions as it became available. These data would inform the Board's assessment of the state of the economy and the outlook and hence whether the current stance of policy would most effectively foster sustainable growth and inflation consistent with the target.


TL;DR - they're playing a waiting game.

Which doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know. But it seems that:

  • They expect the $AUD to weaken even if they don't cut rates further (and they want it to weaken too)
  • They acknowledge a slowing down in the economy, but expect a rebound in 2016
  • They mentioned the "very strong" real estate markets in Sydney and parts of Melbourne, but that the rest of the capitals were "mixed" (last month only conditions in Sydney were considered "very strong").
  • Unsurprisingly, they consider a 2% cash rate to be accomodative and would continue to review how they could promote "sustainable growth" and a CPI consistent with their 2-3% target (which is a target over the medium term).
 
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